feat: Specialist Desks v2 — COT, Forward Curves, Surprise Index, Hawk/Dove scorer

- COT Positioning: CFTC disaggregated + financial futures (19 markets) via Socrata free API
  net MM position % OI + weekly change stored in cot_data table
- Forward Curves: yfinance front-month vs +3M slope (8 commodities)
  contango/backwardation/flat stored in forward_curve_data table
- Surprise Index: consensus_estimate + actual_value on specialist_reports
  auto-computes surprise_score = actual - consensus on save
- Hawk/Dove Text Scorer: GPT-4o-mini endpoint for CB statements
  score -1..+1, label, summary, key_phrases (forex/bonds: hawk/dove; commodities: bull/bear)
- AI context injection: COT net positioning, forward curve structure,
  surprise scores, upcoming consensus estimates injected into all desk blocks
- Frontend: COT panel (net% bars), Forward Curves panel, SurpriseInput
  on report cards, Hawk/Dove scorer in forex/bonds config tab
- auto_cycle.py: non-blocking COT + curve refresh before each cycle

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/routers/specialist_desks.py

@@ -3,10 +3,13 @@ Specialist Desks — per asset-class fundamental configs + report catalogue.
 Prefix: /api/specialist-desks
 """
 import uuid
+import logging
 from typing import Optional, List
 from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
 router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/specialist-desks", tags=["specialist-desks"])
 
 
@@ -45,6 +48,20 @@ class ReportUpsert(BaseModel):
     desks: List[str] = []
 
 
+class ReportResultUpdate(BaseModel):
+    actual_value: Optional[float] = None
+    consensus_estimate: Optional[float] = None
+    text_sentiment_score: Optional[float] = None
+    text_sentiment_label: Optional[str] = None
+    text_sentiment_summary: Optional[str] = None
+
+
+class ScoreTextRequest(BaseModel):
+    text: str
+    report_name: str = ""
+    desk: str = "forex"
+
+
 # ── Configs ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 @router.get("/configs")
@@ -142,3 +159,79 @@ def unlink_from_desk(report_id: str, asset_class: str):
     from services.database import unlink_report_desk
     unlink_report_desk(report_id, asset_class)
     return {"unlinked": report_id, "desk": asset_class}
+
+
+# ── Surprise Index ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+@router.put("/reports/{report_id}/result")
+def update_report_result(report_id: str, body: ReportResultUpdate):
+    from services.database import update_report_result as _upd
+    _upd(
+        report_id=report_id,
+        actual_value=body.actual_value,
+        consensus_estimate=body.consensus_estimate,
+        text_sentiment_score=body.text_sentiment_score,
+        text_sentiment_label=body.text_sentiment_label,
+        text_sentiment_summary=body.text_sentiment_summary,
+    )
+    return {"saved": report_id}
+
+
+# ── COT Data ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+@router.get("/cot")
+def get_cot_data():
+    from services.database import get_latest_cot_data
+    return get_latest_cot_data()
+
+
+@router.post("/cot/fetch")
+def fetch_cot():
+    from services.cot_fetcher import fetch_all_cot
+    from services.database import save_cot_data
+    try:
+        data = fetch_all_cot()
+        if data:
+            saved = save_cot_data(data)
+            return {"fetched": len(data), "saved": saved}
+        return {"fetched": 0, "saved": 0, "warning": "No COT data returned"}
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.error(f"COT fetch error: {e}")
+        raise HTTPException(500, str(e))
+
+
+# ── Forward Curves ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+@router.get("/forward-curves")
+def get_forward_curves():
+    from services.database import get_latest_forward_curves
+    return get_latest_forward_curves()
+
+
+@router.post("/forward-curves/fetch")
+def fetch_forward_curves_endpoint():
+    from services.forward_curve import fetch_forward_curves
+    from services.database import save_forward_curves
+    try:
+        data = fetch_forward_curves()
+        if data:
+            saved = save_forward_curves(data)
+            return {"fetched": len(data), "saved": saved}
+        return {"fetched": 0, "saved": 0, "warning": "No curve data returned"}
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.error(f"Forward curve fetch error: {e}")
+        raise HTTPException(500, str(e))
+
+
+# ── Hawk / Dove Text Scorer ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+@router.post("/score-text")
+def score_text(body: ScoreTextRequest):
+    """Score a central bank / commodity report excerpt via GPT-4o-mini."""
+    try:
+        from services.ai_analyzer import score_report_text
+        result = score_report_text(body.text, body.report_name, body.desk)
+        return result
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.error(f"Text scoring error: {e}")
+        raise HTTPException(500, str(e))