diff --git a/frontend/src/pages/EuroSimulator.tsx b/frontend/src/pages/EuroSimulator.tsx
index 08304cd..ff9705d 100644
--- a/frontend/src/pages/EuroSimulator.tsx
+++ b/frontend/src/pages/EuroSimulator.tsx
@@ -278,15 +278,25 @@ function CausalChain({ r, base, p }: { r: ModelResult; base: Params; p: Params }
   const col3 = (v: number, threshold = 0.03): string =>
     Math.abs(v) < threshold ? '#94a3b8' : v > 0 ? '#f87171' : '#34d399'
 
-  const fedRateC = col3(r.fed_rate_pressure, 0.3)
-  const ecbRateC = col3(-r.ecb_rate_pressure, 0.3)  // flipped: ECB hawkish → EUR up → green
+  // ── Node colors ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  // CPI/NFP/PMI inputs → forward guidance signal (positive = hawkish Fed = red for EUR)
+  const fedFwdC  = col3(r.fed_fwd_signal,    0.4)
+  const ecbFwdC  = col3(-r.ecb_fwd_signal,   0.4)   // ECB hawkish fwd signal → green for EUR
+
+  // CB nodes: combined rate + tone signal dominates
+  const fedC = col3(r.fed_rate_pressure + r.fed_fwd_signal * 0.4, 0.25)
+  const ecbC = col3(-(r.ecb_rate_pressure + r.ecb_fwd_signal * 0.4), 0.25)
 
   // PMI US: positive deviation (> 50) = US strong = bearish EUR = red
   const pmiUsC = col3(p.pmi_us - 50, 1.5)
 
+  // VIX: above baseline = risk-off = USD safe haven = bearish EUR = red
+  const vixC = col3(p.vix - base.vix, 2)
+
+  // Yield node colors
   const us2C  = col3(r.us_2y_implied  - base.us_2y)
   const us10C = col3(r.us_10y_implied - base.us_10y)
-  const eu2C  = col3(-(r.eu_2y_implied  - base.eu_2y))  // EU yield up → EUR/USD up → green
+  const eu2C  = col3(-(r.eu_2y_implied  - base.eu_2y))
   const eu10C = col3(-(r.eu_10y_implied - base.eu_10y))
 
   const diff2C  = col3(delta2yVal,  0.02)
@@ -335,22 +345,22 @@ function CausalChain({ r, base, p }: { r: ModelResult; base: Params; p: Params }
       <defs>{COLORS.map(c => mk(`a${c.replace('#', '')}`, c))}</defs>
 
       {/* US inputs */}
-      <Node x={fedX - 22} y={yIn1} label="CPI US / NFP" col={r.fed_fwd_signal > 0.4 ? '#f87171' : '#94a3b8'} w={98} />
+      <Node x={fedX - 22} y={yIn1} label="CPI US / NFP" col={fedFwdC} w={98} />
       <Node x={fedX + 30} y={yIn2} label="PMI US"        col={pmiUsC} w={70} />
-      <Arr x1={fedX - 8} y1={yIn1 + 14} x2={fedX - 5}  y2={yCB - 17} col={fedRateC} w={1.4} />
-      <Arr x1={fedX + 28} y1={yIn2 + 13} x2={fedX + 8} y2={yCB - 17} col={pmiUsC} w={1.1} dashed />
+      <Arr x1={fedX - 8} y1={yIn1 + 14} x2={fedX - 5}  y2={yCB - 17} col={fedFwdC} w={1.4} dashed />
+      <Arr x1={fedX + 28} y1={yIn2 + 13} x2={fedX + 8} y2={yCB - 17} col={pmiUsC}  w={1.1} dashed />
 
       {/* EU inputs */}
-      <Node x={ecbX + 22} y={yIn1} label="CPI EU / PMI" col={r.ecb_fwd_signal > 0.4 ? '#34d399' : '#94a3b8'} w={98} />
-      <Arr x1={ecbX + 8} y1={yIn1 + 14} x2={ecbX + 5}  y2={yCB - 17} col={ecbRateC} w={1.4} />
+      <Node x={ecbX + 22} y={yIn1} label="CPI EU / PMI" col={ecbFwdC} w={98} />
+      <Arr x1={ecbX + 8} y1={yIn1 + 14} x2={ecbX + 5}  y2={yCB - 17} col={ecbFwdC} w={1.4} dashed />
 
       {/* CB nodes */}
       <Node x={fedX} y={yCB} label="FED"
         sub={`taux ${sign(r.fed_rate_pressure)}${r.fed_rate_pressure.toFixed(1)} | ton ${sign(r.fed_fwd_signal)}${r.fed_fwd_signal.toFixed(1)}`}
-        col={fedRateC} w={118} />
+        col={fedC} w={118} />
       <Node x={ecbX} y={yCB} label="BCE"
         sub={`taux ${sign(r.ecb_rate_pressure)}${r.ecb_rate_pressure.toFixed(1)} | ton ${sign(r.ecb_fwd_signal)}${r.ecb_fwd_signal.toFixed(1)}`}
-        col={ecbRateC} w={118} />
+        col={ecbC} w={118} />
 
       {/* FED → US 2Y (solid, rate) and FED → US 10Y (dashed, tone) */}
       <Arr x1={fedX - 18} y1={yCB + 17} x2={us2X + 8}  y2={yYld - 17} col={us2C}  w={aw(Math.abs(r.fed_rate_pressure) * 0.085)} />
@@ -376,9 +386,9 @@ function CausalChain({ r, base, p }: { r: ModelResult; base: Params; p: Params }
       <Node x={diff2X}  y={yDiff} label="Δ 2Y (taux)"    sub={`${r.rate_diff_2y.toFixed(2)}% US−EU`}  col={diff2C}  w={108} />
       <Node x={diff10X} y={yDiff} label="Δ 10Y (anticipations)" sub={`${r.rate_diff_10y.toFixed(2)}% US−EU`} col={diff10C} w={114} />
 
-      {/* VIX (left) */}
-      <Node x={vixX} y={yDiff} label="VIX" sub="risk" col="#94a3b8" w={48} />
-      <Arr x1={vixX + 24} y1={yDiff + 8} x2={cX - 68} y2={yFX - 16} col="#94a3b8" w={1.2} />
+      {/* VIX (left) — risk-off = USD safe haven = bearish EUR = red */}
+      <Node x={vixX} y={yDiff} label="VIX" sub={`${p.vix.toFixed(1)}`} col={vixC} w={52} />
+      <Arr x1={vixX + 26} y1={yDiff + 8} x2={cX - 68} y2={yFX - 16} col={vixC} w={aw(Math.abs(p.vix - base.vix) * 0.06)} />
 
       {/* Differentials → EURUSD */}
       <Arr x1={diff2X  + 12} y1={yDiff + 17} x2={cX - 22} y2={yFX - 22} col={diff2C}  w={aw(Math.abs(delta2yVal)  * 5)} />