feat: market event

backend/routers/causal_lab.py

@@ -940,6 +940,7 @@ def analyze_event(body: AnalyzeRequest):
             "yields":             yields,
             "activation":         activation,
             "drift":              drift_by_inst.get(primary_inst, {}),
+            "drift_by_inst":      drift_by_inst,
             "prices_mode":        prices.get("mode", "none"),
             "effective_lag_min":  effective_lag,
             "effective_lag_days": effective_lag_days,
@@ -961,7 +962,7 @@ def analyze_event(body: AnalyzeRequest):
             """, (
                 primary_inst, json.dumps(inputs), json.dumps(body.coef_overrides),
                 json.dumps(node_values), json.dumps(actual_moves), activation.get("score"),
-                json.dumps(drift_by_inst.get(primary_inst, {})), analyzed_at,
+                json.dumps(drift_by_inst), analyzed_at,
                 body.market_event_id, body.template_id,
             ))
         else:
@@ -976,7 +977,7 @@ def analyze_event(body: AnalyzeRequest):
                 json.dumps(inputs), json.dumps(body.coef_overrides),
                 json.dumps(node_values), json.dumps(actual_moves),
                 activation.get("score"),
-                json.dumps(drift_by_inst.get(primary_inst, {})), analyzed_at,
+                json.dumps(drift_by_inst), analyzed_at,
             ))
         conn.commit()
 

frontend/src/pages/MarketEvents.tsx

@@ -62,6 +62,7 @@ interface CausalAnalysis {
   inputs_json: Record<string, number>
   prediction_json: Record<string, number>
   actual_json: Record<string, number>
+  drift_json?: Record<string, any>
   graph_json?: { nodes: GraphNode[]; edges: GraphEdge[] }
 }
 
@@ -395,8 +396,12 @@ function EventDetail({
   const [instMsg, setInstMsg]         = useState<string | null>(null)
   const [anResult, setAnResult]       = useState<{
     score: number | null
-    preds:   Record<string, number>
+    preds:    Record<string, number>
-    actuals: Record<string, number>
+    actuals:  Record<string, number>
+    drift?:   Record<string, { pre_pips: number | null; post_pips: number | null; lag_min: number; lag_days: number }>
+    pricesMode?: string
+    lagMin?: number
+    lagDays?: number
   } | null>(null)
   const [graphData, setGraphData]     = useState<GraphData | null>(null)
 
@@ -417,10 +422,19 @@ function EventDetail({
         const latest = data[0]
         if (latest.template_id) setSelTmpl(latest.template_id)
         if (Object.keys(latest.inputs_json || {}).length > 0) setInstInputs(latest.inputs_json)
+        const driftRaw = latest.drift_json || {}
+        // drift_json peut être { EURUSD: {...}, XAUUSD: {...} } (nouveau) ou { post_pips: ..., ... } (ancien)
+        const isDriftByInst = driftRaw && !('post_pips' in driftRaw) && Object.keys(driftRaw).length > 0
+        const driftByInst = isDriftByInst
+          ? driftRaw
+          : latest.instrument && Object.keys(driftRaw).length > 0
+            ? { [latest.instrument]: driftRaw }
+            : undefined
         setAnResult({
-          score: latest.activation_score,
+          score:      latest.activation_score,
-          preds: latest.prediction_json || {},
+          preds:      latest.prediction_json || {},
-          actuals: latest.actual_json || {},
+          actuals:    latest.actual_json || {},
+          drift:      driftByInst,
         })
         if (latest.graph_json?.nodes?.length) {
           setGraphData(latest.graph_json as GraphData)
@@ -535,7 +549,15 @@ function EventDetail({
       })
       const d = await r.json()
       if (!r.ok) throw new Error(d.detail || r.statusText)
-      setAnResult({ score: d.activation?.score ?? null, preds: d.node_values ?? {}, actuals: d.actual_moves ?? {} })
+      setAnResult({
+        score:      d.activation?.score ?? null,
+        preds:      d.node_values ?? {},
+        actuals:    d.actual_moves ?? {},
+        drift:      d.drift_by_inst ?? (d.drift ? { [d.instrument]: d.drift } : undefined),
+        pricesMode: d.prices_mode,
+        lagMin:     d.effective_lag_min,
+        lagDays:    d.effective_lag_days,
+      })
       if (d.graph_json?.nodes?.length) setGraphData(d.graph_json)
       await loadAnalyses()
     } catch (e: any) { setAnResult({ score: null, preds: {}, actuals: {} }) }
@@ -850,6 +872,52 @@ function EventDetail({
               </button>
             </div>
 
+            {/* Bandeau de détail du calcul réel */}
+            {anResult && (anResult.pricesMode || anResult.drift) && (() => {
+              const mode    = anResult.pricesMode
+              const lagMin  = anResult.lagMin ?? 0
+              const lagDays = anResult.lagDays ?? 0
+              const driftEntries = Object.entries(anResult.drift ?? {})
+              return (
+                <div className="bg-slate-900/70 border border-slate-700/40 rounded px-3 py-2 space-y-1.5 text-[10px] font-mono">
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-2 flex-wrap">
+                    <span className={clsx('px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded font-semibold',
+                      mode === 'intraday_5m' ? 'bg-cyan-900/40 text-cyan-400 border border-cyan-700/40'
+                                             : 'bg-amber-900/40 text-amber-400 border border-amber-700/40')}>
+                      {mode === 'intraday_5m' ? '5m intraday' : mode === 'daily' ? 'journalier' : mode ?? '—'}
+                    </span>
+                    {mode === 'intraday_5m' && lagMin > 0 && (
+                      <span className="text-slate-400">lag <span className="text-cyan-300">{lagMin}min</span></span>
+                    )}
+                    {mode !== 'intraday_5m' && lagDays > 0 && (
+                      <span className="text-slate-400">lag <span className="text-amber-300">{lagDays}j</span></span>
+                    )}
+                    {mode !== 'intraday_5m' && lagDays === 0 && (
+                      <span className="text-slate-600 italic">lag J = 0 (jour J)</span>
+                    )}
+                  </div>
+                  {driftEntries.map(([inst, d]) => (
+                    <div key={inst} className="flex items-center gap-2 flex-wrap border-t border-slate-800/60 pt-1.5">
+                      <span className="text-slate-400 w-16 truncate">{inst}</span>
+                      {d.pre_pips != null && (
+                        <span className="text-slate-500">
+                          pré: <span className={d.pre_pips > 0 ? 'text-emerald-500' : 'text-red-500'}>{d.pre_pips > 0 ? '+' : ''}{d.pre_pips}p</span>
+                        </span>
+                      )}
+                      <span className="text-slate-500">
+                        post: <span className={d.post_pips == null ? 'text-slate-600' : d.post_pips > 0 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400'}>
+                          {d.post_pips == null ? '—' : `${d.post_pips > 0 ? '+' : ''}${d.post_pips}p`}
+                        </span>
+                      </span>
+                      {d.post_pips == null && (
+                        <span className="text-red-500 italic">données manquantes (yfinance)</span>
+                      )}
+                    </div>
+                  ))}
+                </div>
+              )
+            })()}
+
             {/* Inline result — full-width graph + left recap */}
             {anResult && graphData?.nodes?.length && (() => {
               const inputNodes  = graphData.nodes.filter(n => n.type === 'input')