feat: instrument analysis

backend/services/instrument_service.py

@@ -543,9 +543,11 @@ def _get_relevant_events(
             SELECT e.*,
                    (SELECT GROUP_CONCAT(DISTINCT a.instrument)
                     FROM causal_event_analyses a
-                    WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id)                                                         AS analyzed_instruments,
+                    WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id)                                                              AS analyzed_instruments,
-                   (SELECT a.template_id FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_template_id,
+                   (SELECT a.template_id    FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_template_id,
-                   (SELECT a.id          FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS analysis_id
+                   (SELECT a.id             FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS analysis_id,
+                   (SELECT a.prediction_json FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_prediction_json,
+                   (SELECT a.actual_json     FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_actual_json
             FROM market_events e
             ORDER BY e.start_date DESC
         """).fetchall()
@@ -553,7 +555,9 @@ def _get_relevant_events(
         # Use cea_template_id (from causal_event_analyses) explicitly to avoid
         # any collision with an e.* column named template_id
         all_events = [
-            {**dict(r), "template_id": r["cea_template_id"]}
+            {**dict(r), "template_id": r["cea_template_id"],
+             "prediction_json": r["cea_prediction_json"],
+             "actual_json":     r["cea_actual_json"]}
             for r in rows
         ]
     except Exception as e:

frontend/src/pages/InstrumentDashboard.tsx

@@ -18,7 +18,10 @@ const NO_CHART_EVENTS: never[] = []
 interface CausalTemplate {
   id: number; name: string; category: string; sub_type: string
   instruments: string[]; description: string
-  graph_json: { nodes: { id: string; type: string; label: string; instrument?: string }[]; edges: any[] }
+  graph_json: {
+    nodes: { id: string; type: string; label: string; instrument?: string }[]
+    edges: { from: string; to: string; lag_days?: number; lag_min?: number; sign?: string }[]
+  }
 }
 
 interface InstrumentConfig {
@@ -39,6 +42,8 @@ interface SnapshotEvent {
   category: string; sub_type?: string; description: string; impact_score: number
   expected_value?: string | null; actual_value?: string | null
   surprise_pct?: number | null; unit?: string | null; absorption_pct?: number | null
+  prediction_json?: string | null  // JSON: {node_id: pips} from causal_event_analyses
+  actual_json?: string | null      // JSON: {instrument: pips} from causal_event_analyses
 }
 
 interface RegimeSignals {
@@ -690,6 +695,38 @@ function makeTdToX(priceData: PriceCandle[], width: number): (d: string) => numb
   return (d: string) => (snap(d) / (N - 1)) * width
 }
 
+// ── Comprehension scoring ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function templateAbsorptionDays(tmpl: CausalTemplate): number {
+  const maxLag = Math.max(0, ...tmpl.graph_json.edges.map(e => e.lag_days || 0))
+  return maxLag > 0 ? maxLag : 30
+}
+
+/** Score 0-100 measuring how well the graph predicted actual pips for an instrument. */
+function comprehensionScore(ev: SnapshotEvent, tmpl: CausalTemplate, instrument: string): number | null {
+  if (!ev.prediction_json || !ev.actual_json) return null
+  try {
+    const preds:   Record<string, number> = JSON.parse(ev.prediction_json)
+    const actuals: Record<string, number> = JSON.parse(ev.actual_json)
+    const actual = actuals[instrument] ?? actuals[instrument.toUpperCase()] ?? actuals[instrument.toLowerCase()]
+    if (actual == null) return null
+
+    // Find the market_asset node for this instrument
+    const outputNode = tmpl.graph_json.nodes.find(n =>
+      n.type === 'market_asset' && n.instrument?.toUpperCase() === instrument.toUpperCase()
+    )
+    const predicted = outputNode ? (preds[outputNode.id] ?? null) : null
+    if (predicted == null) return null
+    if (predicted === 0 && actual === 0) return 100
+    if (predicted === 0) return 40
+
+    const sameDir = predicted * actual > 0
+    if (!sameDir) return 0
+    const ratio = Math.min(Math.abs(actual), Math.abs(predicted)) / Math.max(Math.abs(actual), Math.abs(predicted))
+    return Math.round(50 + ratio * 50)
+  } catch { return null }
+}
+
 // ── CausalFrise ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 const FRISE_LANE_H   = 24   // px par lane
@@ -784,8 +821,9 @@ function CausalFrise({
     .map(ev => {
       const tmpl = templates.find(t => t.id === ev.template_id)
       if (!tmpl) return null
+      const absorptionDays = templateAbsorptionDays(tmpl)
       const endDate = ev.end_date ?? (() => {
-        const d = new Date(ev.date); d.setDate(d.getDate() + 30)
+        const d = new Date(ev.date); d.setDate(d.getDate() + absorptionDays)
         return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10)
       })()
       const x1  = tdToX(ev.date)
@@ -912,10 +950,10 @@ function CausalFrise({
 
             <div className="text-[10px] text-slate-400 truncate mb-1.5">{ev.title}</div>
 
-            <div className="flex items-center gap-3 mb-2.5 text-[9px] text-slate-600">
+            <div className="flex items-center gap-3 mb-2 text-[9px] text-slate-600">
               <span className="flex items-center gap-1">
                 <Clock className="w-2.5 h-2.5" />
-                {fmtDateFR(ev.date)} → {ev.end_date ? fmtDateFR(ev.end_date) : '+30j'}
+                {fmtDateFR(ev.date)} → {ev.end_date ? fmtDateFR(ev.end_date) : `+${templateAbsorptionDays(tmpl)}j`}
               </span>
               {ev.impact_score != null && (
                 <span className="text-amber-600">★ {ev.impact_score.toFixed(1)}</span>
@@ -927,6 +965,26 @@ function CausalFrise({
               )}
             </div>
 
+            {/* Per-graph comprehension score */}
+            {(() => {
+              const inst = causalInsts.find(ci => tmpl.instruments.includes(ci)) ?? causalInsts[0]
+              const s = inst ? comprehensionScore(ev, tmpl, inst) : null
+              if (s == null) return null
+              const barCls = s >= 70 ? 'bg-emerald-500' : s >= 40 ? 'bg-amber-500' : 'bg-red-500'
+              const txtCls = s >= 70 ? 'text-emerald-400' : s >= 40 ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-red-400'
+              return (
+                <div className="mb-2">
+                  <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[9px] text-slate-600 mb-0.5">
+                    <span>Précision prédiction</span>
+                    <span className={txtCls}>{s}%</span>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="h-1 bg-slate-800 rounded-full overflow-hidden">
+                    <div className={clsx('h-full rounded-full', barCls)} style={{ width: `${s}%` }} />
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+              )
+            })()}
+
             <div className="flex gap-1.5">
               <button
                 onClick={() => { if (ev.id) navigate(`/market-events?event=${ev.id}`); setActiveChip(null) }}
@@ -956,47 +1014,55 @@ function CausalFrise({
 // ── ExplanationScore ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 function ExplanationScore({
-  events, templates, selectedDate, causalInsts,
+  events, templates, causalInsts,
 }: {
   events: SnapshotEvent[]
   templates: CausalTemplate[]
-  selectedDate: string | null
   causalInsts: string[]
 }) {
-  // Templates from events that have a causal graph touching this instrument
+  // For each linked event, compute the comprehension score and collect scored ones
-  const linkedEvents = events.filter(ev => {
+  const scored: number[] = []
-    if (!ev.template_id) return false
+  const totalLinked: number[] = []
+
+  for (const ev of events) {
+    if (!ev.template_id) continue
     const tmpl = templates.find(t => t.id === ev.template_id)
-    return tmpl != null && causalInsts.some(ci => tmpl.instruments.includes(ci))
+    if (!tmpl) continue
-  })
+    const inst = causalInsts.find(ci => tmpl.instruments.includes(ci))
-  const linkedTemplateIds = new Set(linkedEvents.map(ev => ev.template_id!))
+    if (!inst) continue
-  const periodTmpl    = templates.filter(t => linkedTemplateIds.has(t.id))
+    totalLinked.push(ev.id ?? 0)
-  const touchedActive = periodTmpl.filter(t =>
+    const s = comprehensionScore(ev, tmpl, inst)
-    linkedEvents.filter(ev => ev.template_id === t.id).some(ev => isActiveAt(ev, selectedDate))
+    if (s != null) scored.push(s)
-  )
+  }
-  const score = periodTmpl.length > 0 ? (touchedActive.length / periodTmpl.length) * 100 : 0
+
-  const verdict = score >= 60 ? 'Bien expliqué' : score >= 30 ? 'Partiellement' : 'Peu lisible'
+  const globalScore = scored.length > 0
-  const badgeCls = score >= 60
+    ? Math.round(scored.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / scored.length)
+    : null
+
+  const verdict = globalScore == null ? 'En attente'
+    : globalScore >= 70 ? 'Bien expliqué' : globalScore >= 40 ? 'Partiellement' : 'Peu lisible'
+  const badgeCls = globalScore == null
+    ? 'text-slate-500 bg-slate-800/60 border-slate-700/30'
+    : globalScore >= 70
     ? 'text-emerald-400 bg-emerald-900/30 border-emerald-700/40'
-    : score >= 30
+    : globalScore >= 40
     ? 'text-amber-400 bg-amber-900/30 border-amber-700/40'
-    : 'text-slate-400 bg-slate-800/60 border-slate-700/30'
+    : 'text-red-400 bg-red-900/20 border-red-700/30'
-  const barCls = score >= 60 ? 'bg-emerald-500' : score >= 30 ? 'bg-amber-500' : 'bg-slate-600'
+  const barCls = globalScore == null ? 'bg-slate-600'
+    : globalScore >= 70 ? 'bg-emerald-500' : globalScore >= 40 ? 'bg-amber-500' : 'bg-red-500'
 
   return (
     <div className="flex items-center gap-3 px-4 py-2.5 rounded-xl border border-slate-700/30 bg-dark-800/50">
       <span className="text-xs text-slate-500 whitespace-nowrap">Note globale</span>
       <div className="flex-1 h-1.5 bg-slate-800 rounded-full overflow-hidden">
-        <div className={clsx('h-full rounded-full transition-all', barCls)} style={{ width: `${score}%` }} />
+        <div className={clsx('h-full rounded-full transition-all', barCls)} style={{ width: `${globalScore ?? 0}%` }} />
       </div>
       <span className={clsx('text-xs font-semibold px-2 py-1 rounded-lg border whitespace-nowrap', badgeCls)}>
-        {Math.round(score)}% — {verdict}
+        {globalScore != null ? `${globalScore}% — ` : ''}{verdict}
+      </span>
+      <span className="text-[10px] text-slate-600 whitespace-nowrap">
+        {scored.length}/{totalLinked.length} graphes
       </span>
-      {periodTmpl.length > 0 && (
-        <span className="text-[10px] text-slate-600 whitespace-nowrap">
-          {touchedActive.length}/{periodTmpl.length} graphes
-        </span>
-      )}
     </div>
   )
 }
@@ -1430,7 +1496,6 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard() {
               <ExplanationScore
                 events={snapshot.events}
                 templates={templates}
-                selectedDate={effectiveDate}
                 causalInsts={causalInsts}
               />
             </div>