diff --git a/frontend/src/pages/EuroSimulator.tsx b/frontend/src/pages/EuroSimulator.tsx
index f0a28f0..08304cd 100644
--- a/frontend/src/pages/EuroSimulator.tsx
+++ b/frontend/src/pages/EuroSimulator.tsx
@@ -83,6 +83,7 @@ function compute(p: Params, base: Params): ModelResult {
     -p.fed_tone * 1.2
     + p.cpi_us_surprise / 0.1 * 0.50   // hot CPI → more hikes expected
     + p.nfp_surprise / 100 * 0.35       // strong jobs → Fed stays restrictive
+    + (p.pmi_us - 50) / 5 * 0.18       // strong activity → Fed stays restrictive longer
 
   const ecb_fwd_signal =
     -p.ecb_tone * 1.2
@@ -268,7 +269,7 @@ function ToneSelector({ label, value, onChange }: { label: string; value: number
 //   Solid arrows  = rate channel (taux directeurs → 2Y)
 //   Dashed arrows = tone/expectations channel (ton + données → 10Y)
 
-function CausalChain({ r, base }: { r: ModelResult; base: Params }) {
+function CausalChain({ r, base, p }: { r: ModelResult; base: Params; p: Params }) {
   const sign = (v: number) => v > 0 ? '+' : ''
 
   const delta2yVal  = r.rate_diff_2y  - (base.us_2y  - base.eu_2y)
@@ -278,9 +279,10 @@ function CausalChain({ r, base }: { r: ModelResult; base: Params }) {
     Math.abs(v) < threshold ? '#94a3b8' : v > 0 ? '#f87171' : '#34d399'
 
   const fedRateC = col3(r.fed_rate_pressure, 0.3)
-  const fedFwdC  = col3(r.fed_fwd_signal,    0.5)
   const ecbRateC = col3(-r.ecb_rate_pressure, 0.3)  // flipped: ECB hawkish → EUR up → green
-  const ecbFwdC  = col3(-r.ecb_fwd_signal,   0.5)
+
+  // PMI US: positive deviation (> 50) = US strong = bearish EUR = red
+  const pmiUsC = col3(p.pmi_us - 50, 1.5)
 
   const us2C  = col3(r.us_2y_implied  - base.us_2y)
   const us10C = col3(r.us_10y_implied - base.us_10y)
@@ -334,9 +336,9 @@ function CausalChain({ r, base }: { r: ModelResult; base: Params }) {
 
       {/* US inputs */}
       <Node x={fedX - 22} y={yIn1} label="CPI US / NFP" col={r.fed_fwd_signal > 0.4 ? '#f87171' : '#94a3b8'} w={98} />
-      <Node x={fedX + 30} y={yIn2} label="PMI US"        col="#94a3b8" w={70} />
+      <Node x={fedX + 30} y={yIn2} label="PMI US"        col={pmiUsC} w={70} />
       <Arr x1={fedX - 8} y1={yIn1 + 14} x2={fedX - 5}  y2={yCB - 17} col={fedRateC} w={1.4} />
-      <Arr x1={fedX + 28} y1={yIn2 + 13} x2={fedX + 8} y2={yCB - 17} col="#94a3b8" w={1.1} dashed />
+      <Arr x1={fedX + 28} y1={yIn2 + 13} x2={fedX + 8} y2={yCB - 17} col={pmiUsC} w={1.1} dashed />
 
       {/* EU inputs */}
       <Node x={ecbX + 22} y={yIn1} label="CPI EU / PMI" col={r.ecb_fwd_signal > 0.4 ? '#34d399' : '#94a3b8'} w={98} />
@@ -593,7 +595,7 @@ export default function EuroSimulator() {
             ))}
           </div>
 
-          <CausalChain r={r} base={base} />
+          <CausalChain r={r} base={base} p={p} />
 
           <div className="mt-2 text-[10px] text-slate-600 text-center">
             Base: EURUSD {base.eurusd.toFixed(4)} · US 2Y {base.us_2y.toFixed(2)}% · US 10Y {base.us_10y.toFixed(2)}% · Bund 10Y {base.eu_10y.toFixed(2)}%