feat: causal lab

backend/routers/causal_lab.py

@@ -431,6 +431,8 @@ def patch_template(template_id: int, body: dict):
             sets.append("instruments=?"); params.append(json.dumps(body["instruments"]))
         if "graph_json" in body:
             sets.append("graph_json=?"); params.append(json.dumps(body["graph_json"]))
+        if "calibration_json" in body:
+            sets.append("calibration_json=?"); params.append(json.dumps(body["calibration_json"]))
 
         if not sets:
             conn.close(); return {"ok": True}
@@ -1235,3 +1237,100 @@ def get_calibration():
     except Exception as e:
         logger.error(f"[causal_lab] calibration: {e}")
         raise HTTPException(500, str(e))
+
+
+@router.post("/api/causal-lab/template/{template_id}/generate-theory")
+def generate_theory(template_id: int):
+    """GPT-4o-mini génère absorption_days, decay_type et confidence pour le template parent."""
+    try:
+        from services.database import get_conn, get_config
+        from services.causal_graphs import get_template
+
+        conn = get_conn()
+        _init(conn)
+        tmpl = get_template(conn, template_id)
+        if not tmpl:
+            conn.close(); raise HTTPException(404, "Template introuvable")
+
+        stats = conn.execute("""
+            SELECT COUNT(*) as n, AVG(activation_score) as avg_act
+            FROM causal_event_analyses WHERE template_id = ?
+        """, (template_id,)).fetchone()
+        conn.close()
+
+        n_analyses = stats["n"] if stats else 0
+        avg_act    = round((stats["avg_act"] or 0.0), 2) if stats else 0.0
+
+        graph = tmpl.get("graph_json", {})
+        coefs = {k: v.get("value") for k, v in graph.get("coefficients", {}).items()}
+
+        key = get_config("openai_api_key") or ""
+        if not key:
+            raise HTTPException(400, "Clé OpenAI manquante dans la configuration")
+
+        import openai
+        prompt = (
+            f'Tu es un expert en microstructure de marché et dynamique d\'absorption des chocs de prix.\n\n'
+            f'Template causal : "{tmpl["name"]}"\n'
+            f'Catégorie : {tmpl["category"]} / {tmpl.get("sub_type", "")}\n'
+            f'Description : {tmpl.get("description", "")}\n'
+            f'Instruments : {tmpl.get("instruments", [])}\n'
+            f'Coefficients : {json.dumps(coefs, ensure_ascii=False)}\n'
+            f'Analyses historiques : {n_analyses} (activation directionnelle moy. : {avg_act:.0%})\n\n'
+            f'Propose les paramètres d\'absorption de l\'impact de marché :\n'
+            f'- absorption_days : jours calendaires avant absorption à >90% (entier 1-60)\n'
+            f'- decay_type : "step" (tout-ou-rien), "linear" (déclin linéaire), "exp" (exponentiel)\n'
+            f'- confidence : confiance 0.0-1.0\n'
+            f'- rationale : justification courte (max 120 chars)\n\n'
+            f'Références : décisions taux→3-7j/exp ; CPI/NFP→2-5j/exp ; '
+            f'géopolitique→5-21j/linear ; PMI secondaire→1-2j/step\n\n'
+            f'JSON uniquement : {{"absorption_days": N, "decay_type": "...", "confidence": 0.X, "rationale": "..."}}'
+        )
+
+        client = openai.OpenAI(api_key=key)
+        resp = client.chat.completions.create(
+            model="gpt-4o-mini",
+            messages=[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
+            response_format={"type": "json_object"},
+            temperature=0.2,
+            max_tokens=200,
+        )
+        raw = resp.choices[0].message.content or "{}"
+        params = json.loads(raw)
+
+        absorption_days = max(1, min(60, int(params.get("absorption_days", 7))))
+        decay_type = params.get("decay_type", "exp")
+        if decay_type not in ("step", "linear", "exp"):
+            decay_type = "exp"
+        confidence = round(max(0.0, min(1.0, float(params.get("confidence", 0.5)))), 2)
+        rationale  = str(params.get("rationale", ""))[:150]
+
+        conn2 = get_conn()
+        existing_calib = dict(tmpl.get("calibration_json") or {})
+        existing_calib.update({
+            "absorption_days": absorption_days,
+            "decay_type": decay_type,
+            "confidence": confidence,
+            "theory_rationale": rationale,
+            "theory_generated_at": datetime.utcnow().isoformat() + "Z",
+        })
+        conn2.execute(
+            "UPDATE causal_graph_templates SET calibration_json=?, updated_at=datetime('now') WHERE id=?",
+            (json.dumps(existing_calib), template_id),
+        )
+        conn2.commit()
+        conn2.close()
+
+        return {
+            "template_id": template_id,
+            "absorption_days": absorption_days,
+            "decay_type": decay_type,
+            "confidence": confidence,
+            "rationale": rationale,
+        }
+
+    except HTTPException:
+        raise
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.error(f"[causal_lab] generate_theory {template_id}: {e}")
+        raise HTTPException(500, str(e))

backend/routers/instruments.py

@@ -2,6 +2,9 @@
 Instrument Dashboard Router.
 Exposes per-instrument snapshot (price, indicators, regime, trend, events) and AI narrative.
 """
+import json
+import math
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta
 from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException, Query
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 from typing import List, Dict, Any, Optional
@@ -85,3 +88,142 @@ def update_drivers(instrument_id: str, body: DriverUpdate) -> Dict[str, Any]:
         raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e))
 
     return {"ok": True, "instrument_id": instrument_id.upper(), "drivers_count": len(body.drivers)}
+
+
+# ── Instrument mult (pips → price conversion) ─────────────────────────────────
+
+_INST_MULT: Dict[str, int] = {"EURUSD": 10000, "GBPUSD": 10000, "USDJPY": 100, "AUDUSD": 10000}
+
+def _get_mult(inst: str) -> int:
+    return _INST_MULT.get(inst.upper(), 10)
+
+
+def _decay(days_after: int, absorption_days: int, decay_type: str) -> float:
+    """Decay factor ∈ [0,1] for a given number of days after the event."""
+    if days_after < 0:
+        return 0.0
+    if decay_type == "step":
+        return 1.0 if days_after <= absorption_days else 0.0
+    elif decay_type == "linear":
+        return max(0.0, 1.0 - days_after / max(absorption_days, 1))
+    else:  # exp — 3 time-constants reach ~5% at absorption_days
+        lam = 3.0 / max(absorption_days, 1)
+        return math.exp(-lam * days_after)
+
+
+@router.get("/{instrument_id}/theoretical-curve")
+def get_theoretical_curve(
+    instrument_id: str,
+    period: str = Query("1y"),
+) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
+    """
+    Courbe théorique composite : pour chaque jour calendaire de la période,
+    somme des impacts décroissants des analyses causales stockées.
+
+    Retourne [{date, cumulative_pips, contributions: [{template_name, event_name, event_date, pips, decay_factor}]}]
+    """
+    from services.database import get_conn
+
+    period_lookback: Dict[str, int] = {
+        "5d": 7, "1mo": 35, "3mo": 95, "6mo": 190,
+        "1y": 370, "2y": 740, "5y": 1830,
+    }
+    lookback = period_lookback.get(period, 370)
+
+    date_to   = datetime.utcnow().date()
+    date_from = date_to - timedelta(days=lookback)
+    # Fetch events that started before date_from too — they may still be decaying into the window
+    extended_from = date_from - timedelta(days=90)
+
+    inst_upper = instrument_id.upper()
+
+    conn = get_conn()
+    try:
+        rows = conn.execute("""
+            SELECT a.id,
+                   a.prediction_json,
+                   a.activation_score,
+                   e.start_date  AS event_date,
+                   e.name        AS event_name,
+                   t.name        AS template_name,
+                   t.calibration_json
+            FROM   causal_event_analyses a
+            JOIN   market_events          e ON e.id = a.market_event_id
+            JOIN   causal_graph_templates t ON t.id = a.template_id
+            WHERE  a.instrument = ?
+              AND  e.start_date >= ?
+              AND  e.start_date <= ?
+            ORDER  BY e.start_date
+        """, (inst_upper, str(extended_from), str(date_to))).fetchall()
+    finally:
+        conn.close()
+
+    # ── Build calendar-day series ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+    all_dates: List[str] = []
+    cur = date_from
+    while cur <= date_to:
+        all_dates.append(str(cur))
+        cur += timedelta(days=1)
+
+    curve: Dict[str, Dict] = {
+        d: {"cumulative_pips": 0.0, "contributions": []} for d in all_dates
+    }
+
+    for row in rows:
+        r = dict(row)
+        try:
+            predictions = json.loads(r["prediction_json"] or "{}")
+            calib       = json.loads(r["calibration_json"] or "{}")
+        except Exception:
+            continue
+
+        # Extract predicted pips for this instrument from node_values dict
+        inst_lower = inst_upper.lower()
+        predicted_pips: Optional[float] = None
+        if inst_lower in predictions:
+            predicted_pips = float(predictions[inst_lower])
+        else:
+            for k, v in predictions.items():
+                if inst_lower in k.lower():
+                    try:
+                        predicted_pips = float(v)
+                        break
+                    except (TypeError, ValueError):
+                        pass
+
+        if predicted_pips is None or predicted_pips == 0:
+            continue
+
+        absorption_days: int  = max(1, int(calib.get("absorption_days", 7)))
+        dtype:           str  = str(calib.get("decay_type", "exp"))
+        event_date_str:  str  = r["event_date"][:10]
+
+        try:
+            event_date = datetime.strptime(event_date_str, "%Y-%m-%d").date()
+        except ValueError:
+            continue
+
+        for d in all_dates:
+            cal_date   = datetime.strptime(d, "%Y-%m-%d").date()
+            days_after = (cal_date - event_date).days
+            df         = _decay(days_after, absorption_days, dtype)
+            if df < 0.01:
+                continue
+            contribution = round(predicted_pips * df, 2)
+            curve[d]["cumulative_pips"] += contribution
+            curve[d]["contributions"].append({
+                "template_name": r["template_name"],
+                "event_name":    r["event_name"],
+                "event_date":    event_date_str,
+                "pips":          contribution,
+                "decay_factor":  round(df, 3),
+            })
+
+    # Round totals and strip empty-contribution days at the edges
+    result = []
+    for d in all_dates:
+        entry = curve[d]
+        entry["cumulative_pips"] = round(entry["cumulative_pips"], 1)
+        result.append({"date": d, **entry})
+
+    return result

frontend/src/components/InstrumentChart.tsx

@@ -24,6 +24,12 @@ interface ChartEvent {
   description?: string
 }
 
+interface TheoPoint {
+  date: string
+  cumulative_pips: number
+  contributions: { template_name: string; event_name: string; event_date: string; pips: number; decay_factor: number }[]
+}
+
 interface Props {
   priceData:    PriceCandle[]
   indicators:   Record<string, LinePoint[]>
@@ -31,8 +37,11 @@ interface Props {
   height?:      number
   chartType?:   'candles' | 'line'
   onDateHover?: (date: string | null) => void
+  theoryCurve?: TheoPoint[]
 }
 
+export type { TheoPoint }
+
 const MA_COLORS: Record<string, string> = {
   ma20:  '#f59e0b',
   ma50:  '#3b82f6',
@@ -58,7 +67,7 @@ const CAT_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
   technical:      'Tech.',
 }
 
-export default function InstrumentChart({ priceData, indicators, events = [], height = 420, chartType = 'candles', onDateHover }: Props) {
+export default function InstrumentChart({ priceData, indicators, events = [], height = 420, chartType = 'candles', onDateHover, theoryCurve }: Props) {
   const containerRef    = useRef<HTMLDivElement>(null)
   const cleanupRef      = useRef<(() => void) | null>(null)
   const onHoverRef      = useRef(onDateHover)
@@ -173,6 +182,30 @@ export default function InstrumentChart({ priceData, indicators, events = [], he
         chart.addLineSeries(bbOpts).setData(indicators.bb_lower)
       }
 
+      // ── Theoretical curve — left scale (pips) ─────────────────────────────
+      if (theoryCurve?.length) {
+        chart.priceScale('left').applyOptions({
+          visible: true,
+          borderColor: 'rgba(167,139,250,0.25)',
+          textColor: '#a78bfa',
+          scaleMargins: { top: 0.1, bottom: 0.1 },
+        })
+        const theorySeries = chart.addLineSeries({
+          color: 'rgba(167,139,250,0.75)',
+          lineWidth: 1.5,
+          priceScaleId: 'left',
+          title: 'Δ pips théorique',
+          priceLineVisible: false,
+          lastValueVisible: true,
+          crosshairMarkerVisible: true,
+          crosshairMarkerRadius: 3,
+        })
+        const theoryData = theoryCurve
+          .filter(p => p.contributions.length > 0)
+          .map(p => ({ time: p.date as any, value: p.cumulative_pips }))
+        if (theoryData.length) theorySeries.setData(theoryData)
+      }
+
       chart.timeScale().fitContent()
 
       // ── Star overlay — ★ icons positioned via chart coordinate API ────────
@@ -293,7 +326,7 @@ export default function InstrumentChart({ priceData, indicators, events = [], he
       cleanupRef.current?.()
       cleanupRef.current = null
     }
-  }, [priceData, indicators, events, height, chartType])
+  }, [priceData, indicators, events, height, chartType, theoryCurve])
 
   return (
     <div className="bg-dark-900/60 rounded-xl border border-slate-700/40 overflow-hidden">
@@ -307,6 +340,12 @@ export default function InstrumentChart({ priceData, indicators, events = [], he
         <span className="flex items-center gap-1.5 opacity-40">
           <span className="inline-block w-5 border-t border-dashed border-slate-400" />BB(20,2)
         </span>
+        {theoryCurve?.some(p => p.contributions.length > 0) && (
+          <span className="flex items-center gap-1.5" style={{ color: '#a78bfa' }}>
+            <span className="inline-block w-5 h-0.5 rounded" style={{ background: '#a78bfa' }} />
+            Théorie (pips)
+          </span>
+        )}
         <span className="ml-auto flex items-center gap-2.5">
           {Object.entries(CAT_COLORS).map(([cat, c]) => (
             <span key={cat} className="flex items-center gap-0.5" style={{ color: c }}>

frontend/src/pages/CausalLab.tsx

@@ -380,6 +380,8 @@ function TabLibrary({ initialTemplateId }: { initialTemplateId?: number | null }
   const [saving, setSaving]         = useState(false)
   const [deleting, setDeleting]     = useState(false)
   const [savingLag, setSavingLag]   = useState(false)
+  const [savingTheory, setSavingTheory] = useState(false)
+  const [genTheory, setGenTheory]   = useState(false)
   const [editCoefs, setEditCoefs]   = useState<Record<string, number>>({})
   const [editEdgesLag, setEdgesLag] = useState<CausalEdge[]>([])
   const [loading, setLoading]     = useState(true)
@@ -440,6 +442,30 @@ function TabLibrary({ initialTemplateId }: { initialTemplateId?: number | null }
     } finally { setSavingLag(false) }
   }
 
+  async function generateTheory() {
+    if (!selected) return
+    setGenTheory(true)
+    try {
+      await api(`/api/causal-lab/template/${selected.id}/generate-theory`, { method: 'POST' })
+      const fresh = await api(`/api/causal-lab/template/${selected.id}`)
+      setSelected(fresh)
+    } finally { setGenTheory(false) }
+  }
+
+  async function saveTheoryParams(updates: Record<string, unknown>) {
+    if (!selected) return
+    setSavingTheory(true)
+    try {
+      const newCalib = { ...(selected.calibration_json || {}), ...updates }
+      await api(`/api/causal-lab/template/${selected.id}`, {
+        method: 'PATCH', headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+        body: JSON.stringify({ calibration_json: newCalib }),
+      })
+      const fresh = await api(`/api/causal-lab/template/${selected.id}`)
+      setSelected(fresh)
+    } finally { setSavingTheory(false) }
+  }
+
   function updateEdgeLag(i: number, field: 'lag_min' | 'diffusion_min' | 'decay_days', val: string) {
     setEdgesLag(prev => prev.map((e, idx) => idx !== i ? e : {
       ...e,
@@ -609,6 +635,82 @@ function TabLibrary({ initialTemplateId }: { initialTemplateId?: number | null }
               </button>
             </div>
           )}
+
+          {/* Paramètres théoriques */}
+          <div className="bg-dark-700 rounded-lg p-4 border border-violet-800/30">
+            <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mb-3">
+              <h4 className="text-slate-300 text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider flex items-center gap-2 flex-1">
+                <span className="text-violet-400">⟁</span> Paramètres théoriques
+              </h4>
+              <button
+                onClick={generateTheory}
+                disabled={genTheory}
+                className="px-3 py-1 bg-violet-700 hover:bg-violet-600 disabled:opacity-50 rounded text-xs font-medium text-white flex items-center gap-1.5"
+              >
+                {genTheory ? (
+                  <><span className="animate-spin inline-block">↻</span> Génération…</>
+                ) : (
+                  <><span>✦</span> Générer IA</>
+                )}
+              </button>
+            </div>
+
+            {(() => {
+              const calib = selected.calibration_json || {}
+              const absorption = calib.absorption_days as number | undefined
+              const decay      = calib.decay_type as string | undefined
+              const conf       = calib.confidence as number | undefined
+              const rationale  = calib.theory_rationale as string | undefined
+              const genAt      = calib.theory_generated_at as string | undefined
+              return (
+                <div className="space-y-3">
+                  {rationale && (
+                    <p className="text-xs text-violet-300 italic border-l-2 border-violet-700/60 pl-2">{rationale}</p>
+                  )}
+                  <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3">
+                    <div>
+                      <div className="text-xs text-slate-500 mb-1">Durée absorption (j)</div>
+                      <input
+                        type="number" min={1} max={60} step={1}
+                        value={absorption ?? ''}
+                        placeholder="—"
+                        onChange={e => saveTheoryParams({ absorption_days: parseInt(e.target.value) || 7 })}
+                        className="w-full bg-dark-800 border border-slate-600 rounded px-2 py-1 text-xs text-slate-200 text-center"
+                      />
+                    </div>
+                    <div>
+                      <div className="text-xs text-slate-500 mb-1">Type de décroissance</div>
+                      <select
+                        value={decay ?? 'exp'}
+                        onChange={e => saveTheoryParams({ decay_type: e.target.value })}
+                        className="w-full bg-dark-800 border border-slate-600 rounded px-2 py-1 text-xs text-slate-200"
+                      >
+                        <option value="step">step — tout ou rien</option>
+                        <option value="linear">linear — déclin linéaire</option>
+                        <option value="exp">exp — déclin exponentiel</option>
+                      </select>
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-3 text-xs text-slate-500">
+                    {conf !== undefined && (
+                      <span className="flex items-center gap-1">
+                        Confiance IA :
+                        <span className={`font-mono font-semibold ${conf >= 0.7 ? 'text-emerald-400' : conf >= 0.4 ? 'text-yellow-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+                          {Math.round(conf * 100)}%
+                        </span>
+                      </span>
+                    )}
+                    {genAt && (
+                      <span className="ml-auto opacity-60">
+                        {new Date(genAt).toLocaleDateString('fr-FR')}
+                      </span>
+                    )}
+                    {savingTheory && <span className="text-violet-400 animate-pulse">Sauvegarde…</span>}
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+              )
+            })()}
+          </div>
         </div>
       ) : (
         <div className="flex-1 flex items-center justify-center text-slate-600 text-sm">

frontend/src/pages/InstrumentDashboard.tsx

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ import {
 } from 'lucide-react'
 import axios from 'axios'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
-import InstrumentChart from '../components/InstrumentChart'
+import InstrumentChart, { TheoPoint } from '../components/InstrumentChart'
 
 const api = axios.create({ baseURL: '/api' })
 
@@ -665,110 +665,25 @@ function MacroGaugePanel({ snap, dateLabel }: { snap: MacroGaugeSnap; dateLabel:
   )
 }
 
-// ── EventTimeline ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+// ── Shared: trading-day-index x-coordinate ────────────────────────────────────
-
+// Uses the same time scale as LightweightCharts (trading days, weekends skipped).
-function EventTimeline({
+// For a date D, snaps to the nearest available trading day index.
-  events, priceData, selectedDate, templates, causalInsts,
+function makeTdToX(priceData: PriceCandle[], width: number): (d: string) => number {
-}: {
+  const dates = priceData.map(c => c.time)
-  events: SnapshotEvent[]
+  const N = dates.length
-  priceData: PriceCandle[]
+  if (N < 2) return () => 0
-  selectedDate: string | null
+  function snap(d: string): number {
-  templates: CausalTemplate[]
+    if (d <= dates[0]) return 0
-  causalInsts: string[]
+    if (d >= dates[N - 1]) return N - 1
-}) {
+    let lo = 0, hi = N - 1
-  const navigate     = useNavigate()
+    while (lo < hi) {
-  const containerRef = useRef<HTMLDivElement>(null)
+      const mid = (lo + hi) >> 1
-  const [contWidth, setContWidth] = useState(800)
+      if (dates[mid] < d) lo = mid + 1
-
+      else hi = mid
-  useEffect(() => {
-    const el = containerRef.current; if (!el) return
-    const obs = new ResizeObserver(entries => setContWidth(entries[0].contentRect.width))
-    obs.observe(el)
-    return () => obs.disconnect()
-  }, [])
-
-  // Only events that have an instantiated analysis for this instrument
-  // Uses analyzed_instruments (actual DB analyses) — not template.instruments (theoretical)
-  const linked = events.filter(ev => {
-    if (!ev.analyzed_instruments) return false
-    const insts = ev.analyzed_instruments.split(',')
-    return causalInsts.some(ci => insts.includes(ci))
-  })
-
-  if (!priceData.length || !linked.length) {
-    return (
-      <div ref={containerRef} className="h-16 flex items-center justify-center text-xs text-slate-600 italic">
-        Aucun événement avec graphe causal pour cet instrument
-      </div>
-    )
-  }
-
-  const minDate = priceData[0].time
-  const maxDate = priceData[priceData.length - 1].time
-  const minTs   = new Date(minDate).getTime()
-  const maxTs   = new Date(maxDate).getTime()
-  const PAD     = 24
-  const usable  = Math.max(contWidth - PAD * 2, 1)
-
-  function tsToX(d: string): number {
-    return PAD + ((new Date(d).getTime() - minTs) / (maxTs - minTs)) * usable
-  }
-
-  const visible = linked.filter(ev => ev.date >= minDate && ev.date <= maxDate)
-
-  const HALF_W   = 48
-  const ROW_H    = 28
-  const MAX_ROWS = 5
-  const rowEnds: number[] = new Array(MAX_ROWS).fill(-Infinity)
-
-  const placed = visible.map(ev => {
-    const x = tsToX(ev.date)
-    let row = 0
-    for (let r = 0; r < MAX_ROWS; r++) {
-      if (rowEnds[r] <= x - HALF_W) { row = r; break }
-      row = r
     }
-    rowEnds[row] = x + HALF_W
+    return lo
-    return { ev, x, row }
+  }
-  })
+  return (d: string) => (snap(d) / (N - 1)) * width
-
-  const maxRow     = placed.length ? Math.max(...placed.map(p => p.row)) : 0
-  const containerH = (maxRow + 1) * ROW_H + 28
-  const crossX     = selectedDate && selectedDate >= minDate && selectedDate <= maxDate
-    ? tsToX(selectedDate) : null
-
-  return (
-    <div ref={containerRef} className="relative w-full overflow-hidden select-none" style={{ height: containerH }}>
-      <div className="absolute bottom-7 left-0 right-0 h-px bg-slate-700/40" />
-      {crossX !== null && (
-        <div className="absolute top-0 bottom-0 w-px bg-blue-400/40 pointer-events-none" style={{ left: crossX }} />
-      )}
-      {placed.map(({ ev, x, row }) => {
-        const active = isActiveAt(ev, selectedDate)
-        return (
-          <div
-            key={`${ev.date}-${ev.title}`}
-            onClick={() => ev.id && navigate(`/market-events?event=${ev.id}`)}
-            title={`${ev.title}\n${fmtDateFR(ev.date)}`}
-            className="absolute flex flex-col items-center cursor-pointer group"
-            style={{ left: x, top: row * ROW_H, transform: 'translateX(-50%)' }}
-          >
-            <span className={clsx('text-sm leading-none', active ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-slate-600 group-hover:text-slate-400')}>★</span>
-            <span className={clsx(
-              'absolute top-full mt-0.5 text-[9px] whitespace-nowrap px-1 rounded bg-dark-800/90 border border-slate-700/40 opacity-0 group-hover:opacity-100 transition-opacity z-10 pointer-events-none',
-              active ? 'text-amber-300 border-amber-800/40' : 'text-slate-400'
-            )}>
-              {ev.title.length > 24 ? ev.title.slice(0, 24) + '…' : ev.title}
-            </span>
-          </div>
-        )
-      })}
-      <div className="absolute bottom-0 left-0 right-0 flex justify-between px-6">
-        <span className="text-[10px] text-slate-700">{fmtDateFR(minDate)}</span>
-        <span className="text-[10px] text-slate-700">{fmtDateFR(maxDate)}</span>
-      </div>
-    </div>
-  )
 }
 
 // ── CausalFrise ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@@ -829,12 +744,8 @@ function CausalFrise({
 
   const minDate = priceData[0].time
   const maxDate = priceData[priceData.length - 1].time
-  const minTs   = new Date(minDate).getTime()
-  const maxTs   = new Date(maxDate).getTime()
   const usable  = Math.max(contWidth, 1)
-
+  const tdToX   = makeTdToX(priceData, usable)
-  const clampTs = (d: string) => Math.min(Math.max(new Date(d).getTime(), minTs), maxTs)
-  const dateToX = (d: string) => ((clampTs(d) - minTs) / (maxTs - minTs)) * usable
 
   // Build chips (one per event × template)
   type Chip = {
@@ -850,8 +761,8 @@ function CausalFrise({
         const d = new Date(ev.date); d.setDate(d.getDate() + 30)
         return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10)
       })()
-      const x1  = dateToX(ev.date)
+      const x1  = tdToX(ev.date)
-      const raw = dateToX(endDate) - x1
+      const raw = tdToX(endDate) - x1
       const w   = Math.max(raw, FRISE_MIN_W)
       return { ev, tmpl, x1, x2: x1 + w, w, active: isActiveAt(ev, selectedDate) }
     })
@@ -882,7 +793,7 @@ function CausalFrise({
           month: 'short',
           ...(cur.getFullYear() !== start.getFullYear() ? { year: '2-digit' } : {}),
         }),
-        x: dateToX(cur.toISOString().slice(0, 10)),
+        x: tdToX(cur.toISOString().slice(0, 10)),
       })
       cur = new Date(cur.getFullYear(), cur.getMonth() + 1, 1)
     }
@@ -892,7 +803,7 @@ function CausalFrise({
   const visTicks = ticks.filter((_, i) => i % tickStep === 0)
 
   const crossX = selectedDate && selectedDate >= minDate && selectedDate <= maxDate
-    ? dateToX(selectedDate) : null
+    ? tdToX(selectedDate) : null
 
   return (
     <div
@@ -1090,6 +1001,9 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard() {
   const [tabUnder, setTabUnder]         = useState<'counters' | 'analyse'>('counters')
   const [templates, setTemplates]       = useState<CausalTemplate[]>([])
   const [macroAtDate, setMacroAtDate]   = useState<MacroGaugeSnap | null>(null)
+  const [theoryCurve, setTheoryCurve]   = useState<TheoPoint[] | null>(null)
+  const [loadingTheory, setLoadingTheory] = useState(false)
+  const [showTheory, setShowTheory]     = useState(false)
 
   const instrumentId = id.toUpperCase()
 
@@ -1104,6 +1018,8 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard() {
     setNarrative('')
     setSelectedDate(null)
     setMacroAtDate(null)
+    setTheoryCurve(null)
+    setShowTheory(false)
     api.get(`/instruments/${instrumentId}/snapshot?period=${period}`)
       .then(r => {
         setSnapshot(r.data)
@@ -1126,6 +1042,20 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard() {
     if (date) setSelectedDate(date)
   }, [])
 
+  const toggleTheory = useCallback(() => {
+    if (showTheory) {
+      setShowTheory(false)
+      setTheoryCurve(null)
+      return
+    }
+    if (theoryCurve) { setShowTheory(true); return }
+    setLoadingTheory(true)
+    api.get(`/instruments/${instrumentId}/theoretical-curve?period=${period}`)
+      .then(r => { setTheoryCurve(r.data); setShowTheory(true) })
+      .catch(() => {})
+      .finally(() => setLoadingTheory(false))
+  }, [showTheory, theoryCurve, instrumentId, period])
+
   const { priceMap, indMap, sortedDates, dateIndex } = useMemo(() => {
     if (!snapshot) return { priceMap: {} as Record<string, PriceCandle>, indMap: {} as Record<string, Record<string, number>>, sortedDates: [] as string[], dateIndex: {} as Record<string, number> }
     const priceMap:   Record<string, PriceCandle>            = {}
@@ -1322,6 +1252,7 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard() {
             height={420}
             chartType={chartStyle}
             onDateHover={handleDateHover}
+            theoryCurve={showTheory && theoryCurve ? theoryCurve : undefined}
           />
 
           {/* Date badge */}
@@ -1383,30 +1314,27 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard() {
 
           {tabUnder === 'analyse' && (() => {
             const causalInsts = CAT_TO_CAUSAL_INST[selected?.category ?? ''] ?? []
+            const theoPt = effectiveDate && theoryCurve
+              ? theoryCurve.find(p => p.date === effectiveDate) ?? null
+              : null
             return (
             <div className="space-y-3">
-              {/* Zone haute — frise des événements (seulement ceux avec graphe causal) */}
+              {/* Frise des graphes causaux (inclut l'event) */}
-              <div className="rounded-xl border border-slate-700/40 bg-dark-800/60 p-4">
-                <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mb-3">
-                  <Calendar className="w-4 h-4 text-amber-400" />
-                  <span className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wide">Frise des événements</span>
-                  <span className="text-xs text-slate-600 ml-auto">survol = détail · clic = market event</span>
-                </div>
-                <EventTimeline
-                  events={snapshot.events}
-                  priceData={snapshot.price_data}
-                  selectedDate={effectiveDate}
-                  templates={templates}
-                  causalInsts={causalInsts}
-                />
-              </div>
-
-              {/* Zone basse — frise des graphes causaux */}
               <div className="rounded-xl border border-slate-700/40 bg-dark-800/60 p-4">
                 <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mb-3">
                   <BarChart2 className="w-4 h-4 text-violet-400" />
                   <span className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wide">Frise des graphes</span>
-                  <span className="text-xs text-slate-600 ml-auto">largeur ∝ durée · clic = détail</span>
+                  <button
+                    onClick={toggleTheory}
+                    disabled={loadingTheory}
+                    className={`ml-auto px-2.5 py-1 rounded text-xs font-medium border transition-colors ${
+                      showTheory
+                        ? 'bg-violet-700/60 border-violet-600/60 text-violet-200'
+                        : 'bg-dark-900/40 border-slate-600/40 text-slate-400 hover:border-violet-600/40 hover:text-violet-300'
+                    }`}
+                  >
+                    {loadingTheory ? '↻ Chargement…' : showTheory ? '⟁ Théorie ON' : '⟁ Courbe théorique'}
+                  </button>
                 </div>
                 <CausalFrise
                   events={snapshot.events}
@@ -1417,6 +1345,44 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard() {
                 />
               </div>
 
+              {/* Décomposition théorique au curseur */}
+              {showTheory && theoPt && (
+                <div className="rounded-xl border border-violet-800/40 bg-violet-950/20 p-4">
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mb-3">
+                    <span className="text-violet-400 text-xs">⟁</span>
+                    <span className="text-xs font-semibold text-violet-300 uppercase tracking-wide">
+                      Contributions théoriques — {dateLabel}
+                    </span>
+                    <span className={`ml-auto text-sm font-mono font-bold ${theoPt.cumulative_pips >= 0 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+                      {theoPt.cumulative_pips >= 0 ? '+' : ''}{theoPt.cumulative_pips} pips
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                  {theoPt.contributions.length === 0 ? (
+                    <p className="text-xs text-slate-500 italic">Aucun événement actif à cette date.</p>
+                  ) : (
+                    <div className="space-y-2">
+                      {theoPt.contributions.map((c, i) => (
+                        <div key={i} className="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs">
+                          <div className="flex-1 min-w-0">
+                            <span className="text-slate-300 font-medium truncate block">{c.event_name}</span>
+                            <span className="text-slate-500">{c.template_name} · depuis {c.event_date} · {Math.round(c.decay_factor * 100)}% actif</span>
+                          </div>
+                          <span className={`font-mono font-semibold shrink-0 ${c.pips >= 0 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+                            {c.pips >= 0 ? '+' : ''}{c.pips} pip
+                          </span>
+                        </div>
+                      ))}
+                    </div>
+                  )}
+                </div>
+              )}
+
+              {showTheory && !theoPt && theoryCurve && (
+                <div className="rounded-xl border border-violet-800/30 bg-violet-950/10 p-3 text-xs text-slate-500 text-center">
+                  ⟁ Aucune contribution théorique pour cette date
+                </div>
+              )}
+
               {/* Note globale */}
               <ExplanationScore
                 events={snapshot.events}