diff --git a/backend/services/impact_service.py b/backend/services/impact_service.py
index bd5ed92..3ff13a2 100644
--- a/backend/services/impact_service.py
+++ b/backend/services/impact_service.py
@@ -186,7 +186,7 @@ def evaluate_event_impacts(
             messages=[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
             response_format={"type": "json_object"},
             temperature=0.25,
-            max_tokens=1200,
+            max_tokens=2000,
         )
         raw = json.loads(response.choices[0].message.content)
     except Exception as e:
@@ -198,25 +198,48 @@ def evaluate_event_impacts(
     key_driver = raw.get("key_driver", "")
 
     # ── Use AI-chosen category ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    import unicodedata, re as _re
+
+    def _normalize(s: str) -> str:
+        """Lowercase, strip accents, collapse all dash/space variants."""
+        s = unicodedata.normalize("NFD", s)
+        s = "".join(c for c in s if unicodedata.category(c) != "Mn")  # strip accents
+        s = _re.sub(r"[–—―\-–—]", "-", s)             # normalize dashes
+        return s.lower().strip()
+
     ai_cat_name = (raw.get("matched_category") or "").strip()
-    if ai_cat_name and ai_cat_name.lower() != "none":
-        # Validate against known categories (case-insensitive)
-        matched = next((c for c in all_cats if c["name"].lower() == ai_cat_name.lower()), None)
+    logger.info(f"[impact_service] AI returned matched_category='{ai_cat_name}' for event {event_id}")
+
+    if ai_cat_name and ai_cat_name.lower() not in ("none", "null", ""):
+        # Exact match first, then normalized fuzzy match
+        matched = (
+            next((c for c in all_cats if c["name"].lower() == ai_cat_name.lower()), None)
+            or next((c for c in all_cats if _normalize(c["name"]) == _normalize(ai_cat_name)), None)
+            # Partial: AI name is contained in category name or vice versa
+            or next((c for c in all_cats
+                     if _normalize(ai_cat_name) in _normalize(c["name"])
+                     or _normalize(c["name"]) in _normalize(ai_cat_name)), None)
+        )
         if matched:
             matched_cat_name = matched["name"]
-            logger.info(f"[impact_service] AI matched event {event_id} → category '{matched_cat_name}'")
-            # Auto-update event sub_type if not already set
+            logger.info(f"[impact_service] Matched event {event_id} → '{matched_cat_name}'")
             current_sub = (event.get("sub_type") or "").strip()
             if not current_sub:
                 try:
-                    from services.database import update_market_event
-                    update_market_event(event_id, {**event, "sub_type": matched_cat_name,
-                                                   "source_refs": event.get("source_refs", [])})
-                    logger.info(f"[impact_service] Auto-set sub_type='{matched_cat_name}' on event {event_id}")
+                    from services.database import update_market_event, get_all_market_events
+                    # Re-fetch full event to get proper JSON fields
+                    full_ev = next((e for e in get_all_market_events() if e["id"] == event_id), None)
+                    if full_ev:
+                        refs = full_ev.get("source_refs") or "[]"
+                        if isinstance(refs, str):
+                            refs = json.loads(refs)
+                        update_market_event(event_id, {**full_ev, "sub_type": matched_cat_name,
+                                                       "source_refs": refs})
+                        logger.info(f"[impact_service] Auto-set sub_type='{matched_cat_name}' on event {event_id}")
                 except Exception as _e:
                     logger.warning(f"[impact_service] Could not auto-set sub_type: {_e}")
         else:
-            logger.warning(f"[impact_service] AI returned unknown category '{ai_cat_name}' for event {event_id}")
+            logger.warning(f"[impact_service] No category match for AI response '{ai_cat_name}' (event {event_id})")
 
     cat_label = matched_cat_name or (event.get("sub_type") or "").strip() or (event.get("category") or "")