feat: pattern calibration — progressive AI→observed expected_move blending

DB (database.py):
- 3 new columns on custom_patterns: calibrated_expected_move, calibration_weight, observed_avg_win_pct
- update_bayesian_posteriors() now also computes credibility blend w=n/(n+5):
  calibrated = (1-w)*ai_estimate + w*observed_avg_win_pct (only when wins exist)
- log_trade_entries() prefers calibrated_expected_move when w>10%
- get_calibration_summary() returns per-pattern state (source: pure_ai/early/mixed/data_driven)

Backend (patterns.py, auto_cycle.py):
- GET /api/patterns/calibration endpoint
- calibration_report block in cycle report: counts by source, avg weight, per-pattern detail

Frontend (PatternExplorer.tsx, RapportIA.tsx, useApi.ts):
- MaturityBadge on each PatternCard: blend bar (AI→observed), win rate, AI estimate vs calibrated
- usePatternCalibration hook
- Cycle report: calibration section with global bar + per-pattern table (weight%, n_trades, WR, AI→calibrated)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/hooks/useApi.ts

@@ -363,6 +363,27 @@ export const useTogglePattern = () => {
   })
 }
 
+export interface PatternCalibration {
+  pattern_id: string
+  pattern_name: string
+  asset_class: string
+  ai_estimate: number | null
+  observed_avg_win_pct: number | null
+  calibrated_expected_move: number | null
+  calibration_weight: number
+  calibration_weight_pct: number
+  n_mature_trades: number
+  bayes_win_rate: number
+  source: 'pure_ai' | 'early' | 'mixed' | 'data_driven'
+}
+
+export const usePatternCalibration = () =>
+  useQuery({
+    queryKey: ['pattern-calibration'],
+    queryFn: () => api.get('/patterns/calibration').then(r => r.data as PatternCalibration[]),
+    staleTime: 60_000,
+  })
+
 export interface SimilarityResult {
   recommendation: 'merge_as_instance' | 'counter_scenario' | 'new_pattern'
   match_id: string | null

frontend/src/pages/PatternExplorer.tsx

@@ -14,8 +14,10 @@ import {
   usePatchPattern,
   useFindSimilarPattern,
   useMergePatterns,
+  usePatternCalibration,
   validateTicker,
   type SimilarityResult,
+  type PatternCalibration,
 } from '../hooks/useApi'
 import { INSTRUMENTS, INSTRUMENT_CATEGORIES } from '../constants/instruments'
 
@@ -135,14 +137,87 @@ function CategoryBadge({ category }: { category: string }) {
   )
 }
 
+// ── Maturity / Calibration Badge ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function MaturityBadge({ cal }: { cal: PatternCalibration }) {
+  const w = cal.calibration_weight_pct
+  const n = cal.n_mature_trades
+  const hasData = n > 0
+
+  const sourceColor = {
+    pure_ai:     'text-slate-500 border-slate-700/40',
+    early:       'text-sky-400 border-sky-700/40',
+    mixed:       'text-violet-400 border-violet-700/40',
+    data_driven: 'text-emerald-400 border-emerald-700/40',
+  }[cal.source]
+
+  const sourceLabel = {
+    pure_ai:     'Pure AI',
+    early:       'Early data',
+    mixed:       'Mixed',
+    data_driven: 'Data-driven',
+  }[cal.source]
+
+  return (
+    <div className="border-t border-slate-700/30 pt-2 mt-1 space-y-1.5">
+      <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[10px]">
+        <span className={clsx('font-semibold px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded border', sourceColor)}>
+          {sourceLabel}
+        </span>
+        <span className="text-slate-500">
+          {hasData ? `${n} trade${n > 1 ? 's' : ''} matures` : 'Aucun trade mature'}
+        </span>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Blend bar */}
+      <div className="space-y-0.5">
+        <div className="flex justify-between text-[10px] text-slate-500">
+          <span>IA pure</span>
+          <span className="text-slate-400 font-mono">{w.toFixed(0)}% observé</span>
+          <span>Observé</span>
+        </div>
+        <div className="h-1.5 rounded-full bg-slate-700/60 overflow-hidden">
+          <div
+            className="h-full rounded-full bg-gradient-to-r from-slate-500 to-violet-500 transition-all duration-500"
+            style={{ width: `${Math.max(w, 2)}%` }}
+          />
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      {hasData && (
+        <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-1 text-[10px]">
+          <div className="bg-dark-700/60 rounded px-1.5 py-1 text-center">
+            <div className="text-slate-400 font-mono">{(cal.bayes_win_rate * 100).toFixed(0)}%</div>
+            <div className="text-slate-600">Win rate</div>
+          </div>
+          <div className="bg-dark-700/60 rounded px-1.5 py-1 text-center">
+            <div className="text-slate-400 font-mono">
+              {cal.ai_estimate != null ? `${cal.ai_estimate.toFixed(0)}%` : '—'}
+            </div>
+            <div className="text-slate-600">IA estim.</div>
+          </div>
+          <div className={clsx('rounded px-1.5 py-1 text-center', cal.calibrated_expected_move ? 'bg-violet-900/30' : 'bg-dark-700/60')}>
+            <div className={clsx('font-mono', cal.calibrated_expected_move ? 'text-violet-300' : 'text-slate-600')}>
+              {cal.calibrated_expected_move != null ? `${cal.calibrated_expected_move.toFixed(0)}%` : '—'}
+            </div>
+            <div className="text-slate-600">Calibré</div>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
 // ── Pattern Card ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 function PatternCard({
   pattern,
   highlightTrades,
+  calibration,
 }: {
   pattern: Pattern
   highlightTrades?: string[]
+  calibration?: PatternCalibration
 }) {
   const [expanded,      setExpanded]      = useState(false)
   const [confirmDel,    setConfirmDel]    = useState(false)
@@ -373,6 +448,9 @@ function PatternCard({
         </div>
       )}
 
+      {/* Maturity & calibration */}
+      {calibration && <MaturityBadge cal={calibration} />}
+
       {/* Similarity result panel */}
       {simResult && (
         <div className={clsx(
@@ -503,7 +581,7 @@ const DIR_COLORS: Record<string, string> = {
   neutral: 'bg-amber-900/40 border-amber-600/50 text-amber-300',
 }
 
-function FacetedSearch({ patterns }: { patterns: Pattern[] }) {
+function FacetedSearch({ patterns, calibrationMap = {} }: { patterns: Pattern[]; calibrationMap?: Record<string, PatternCalibration> }) {
   const [query,      setQuery]      = useState('')
   const [direction,  setDirection]  = useState('')
   const [assetClass, setAssetClass] = useState('')
@@ -658,7 +736,7 @@ function FacetedSearch({ patterns }: { patterns: Pattern[] }) {
         </div>
       ) : (
         <div className="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 xl:grid-cols-3 gap-3">
-          {filtered.map(p => <PatternCard key={p.id} pattern={p} />)}
+          {filtered.map(p => <PatternCard key={p.id} pattern={p} calibration={calibrationMap[p.id]} />)}
         </div>
       )}
     </div>
@@ -1025,6 +1103,12 @@ export default function PatternExplorer() {
   const [view, setView] = useState<ViewMode>('search')
   const { data: patternsData, isLoading } = useAllPatterns()
   const { data: _scores } = useLastScores()
+  const { data: calibrationData } = usePatternCalibration()
+
+  const calibrationMap = useMemo<Record<string, PatternCalibration>>(() => {
+    if (!calibrationData) return {}
+    return Object.fromEntries(calibrationData.map(c => [c.pattern_id, c]))
+  }, [calibrationData])
 
   const patterns = useMemo<Pattern[]>(() => {
     if (!Array.isArray(patternsData)) return []
@@ -1101,7 +1185,7 @@ export default function PatternExplorer() {
         </div>
       ) : (
         <>
-          {view === 'search' && <FacetedSearch patterns={patterns} />}
+          {view === 'search' && <FacetedSearch patterns={patterns} calibrationMap={calibrationMap} />}
           {view === 'instrument' && <InstrumentLens patterns={patterns} />}
           {view === 'regime' && <RegimeView patterns={patterns} />}
         </>

frontend/src/pages/RapportIA.tsx

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 import {
   Brain, TrendingUp, TrendingDown, RefreshCw, ShieldAlert,
   GitCompare, Layers, Zap, BookOpen, Clock, ChevronRight,
-  CheckCircle2, AlertTriangle, XCircle, BarChart2,
+  CheckCircle2, AlertTriangle, XCircle, BarChart2, FlaskConical,
 } from 'lucide-react'
 
 const SCENARIO_META: Record<string, { label: string; color: string; emoji: string }> = {
@@ -561,6 +561,67 @@ export default function RapportCycle() {
               </Section>
             )}
 
+            {/* Calibration report */}
+            {report.calibration_report && (report.calibration_report as any).total_patterns > 0 && (() => {
+              const cr = report.calibration_report as any
+              const pct = cr.avg_calibration_weight_pct ?? 0
+              return (
+                <Section icon={<FlaskConical className="w-4 h-4" />} title="Calibration expected_move — IA vs observé">
+                  {/* Global bar */}
+                  <div className="space-y-1 mb-4">
+                    <div className="flex justify-between text-xs text-slate-500">
+                      <span>IA pure ({cr.pure_ai_count} patterns)</span>
+                      <span className="font-mono text-violet-400">{pct.toFixed(1)}% poids observé moyen</span>
+                      <span>Data-driven ({cr.data_driven_count})</span>
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="h-2 rounded-full bg-slate-700/60 overflow-hidden">
+                      <div
+                        className="h-full rounded-full bg-gradient-to-r from-slate-500 via-violet-500 to-emerald-500 transition-all"
+                        style={{ width: `${Math.max(pct, 1)}%` }}
+                      />
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="grid grid-cols-4 gap-2 mt-2">
+                      {[
+                        { label: 'Pure AI', count: cr.pure_ai_count,    cls: 'text-slate-400' },
+                        { label: 'Early',   count: cr.early_count,       cls: 'text-sky-400' },
+                        { label: 'Mixed',   count: cr.mixed_count,       cls: 'text-violet-400' },
+                        { label: 'Data',    count: cr.data_driven_count, cls: 'text-emerald-400' },
+                      ].map(({ label, count, cls }) => (
+                        <div key={label} className="bg-dark-700/60 border border-slate-700/30 rounded p-2 text-center">
+                          <div className={clsx('text-lg font-bold', cls)}>{count}</div>
+                          <div className="text-[10px] text-slate-600">{label}</div>
+                        </div>
+                      ))}
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+                  {/* Per-pattern detail */}
+                  {(cr.detail ?? []).length > 0 && (
+                    <div className="space-y-1">
+                      <div className="text-[10px] text-slate-600 uppercase tracking-wider mb-1">Patterns avec données ({cr.patterns_with_data})</div>
+                      {(cr.detail as any[]).map((d: any, i: number) => (
+                        <div key={i} className="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs bg-dark-700/40 rounded px-2 py-1.5">
+                          <span className={clsx('shrink-0 font-bold text-[10px] px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded border', {
+                            'text-slate-400 border-slate-700/40': d.source === 'pure_ai',
+                            'text-sky-400 border-sky-700/40':     d.source === 'early',
+                            'text-violet-400 border-violet-700/40': d.source === 'mixed',
+                            'text-emerald-400 border-emerald-700/40': d.source === 'data_driven',
+                          })}>
+                            {d.weight_pct?.toFixed(0)}%
+                          </span>
+                          <span className="flex-1 text-slate-300 truncate">{d.name}</span>
+                          <span className="text-slate-500 shrink-0">{d.n_trades}t · {d.win_rate_pct}% WR</span>
+                          <span className="font-mono text-slate-500 shrink-0">AI:{d.ai_estimate?.toFixed(0)}%</span>
+                          {d.calibrated != null && (
+                            <span className="font-mono text-violet-300 shrink-0">→{d.calibrated?.toFixed(0)}%</span>
+                          )}
+                        </div>
+                      ))}
+                    </div>
+                  )}
+                </Section>
+              )
+            })()}
+
             {/* Risk / portfolio monitor */}
             {report.portfolio_monitor && (
               <Section icon={<ShieldAlert className="w-4 h-4" />} title="Risk & Portfolio alerts">