feat: pattern calibration — progressive AI→observed expected_move blending

DB (database.py):
- 3 new columns on custom_patterns: calibrated_expected_move, calibration_weight, observed_avg_win_pct
- update_bayesian_posteriors() now also computes credibility blend w=n/(n+5):
  calibrated = (1-w)*ai_estimate + w*observed_avg_win_pct (only when wins exist)
- log_trade_entries() prefers calibrated_expected_move when w>10%
- get_calibration_summary() returns per-pattern state (source: pure_ai/early/mixed/data_driven)

Backend (patterns.py, auto_cycle.py):
- GET /api/patterns/calibration endpoint
- calibration_report block in cycle report: counts by source, avg weight, per-pattern detail

Frontend (PatternExplorer.tsx, RapportIA.tsx, useApi.ts):
- MaturityBadge on each PatternCard: blend bar (AI→observed), win rate, AI estimate vs calibrated
- usePatternCalibration hook
- Cycle report: calibration section with global bar + per-pattern table (weight%, n_trades, WR, AI→calibrated)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/pages/PatternExplorer.tsx

@@ -14,8 +14,10 @@ import {
   usePatchPattern,
   useFindSimilarPattern,
   useMergePatterns,
+  usePatternCalibration,
   validateTicker,
   type SimilarityResult,
+  type PatternCalibration,
 } from '../hooks/useApi'
 import { INSTRUMENTS, INSTRUMENT_CATEGORIES } from '../constants/instruments'
 
@@ -135,14 +137,87 @@ function CategoryBadge({ category }: { category: string }) {
   )
 }
 
+// ── Maturity / Calibration Badge ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function MaturityBadge({ cal }: { cal: PatternCalibration }) {
+  const w = cal.calibration_weight_pct
+  const n = cal.n_mature_trades
+  const hasData = n > 0
+
+  const sourceColor = {
+    pure_ai:     'text-slate-500 border-slate-700/40',
+    early:       'text-sky-400 border-sky-700/40',
+    mixed:       'text-violet-400 border-violet-700/40',
+    data_driven: 'text-emerald-400 border-emerald-700/40',
+  }[cal.source]
+
+  const sourceLabel = {
+    pure_ai:     'Pure AI',
+    early:       'Early data',
+    mixed:       'Mixed',
+    data_driven: 'Data-driven',
+  }[cal.source]
+
+  return (
+    <div className="border-t border-slate-700/30 pt-2 mt-1 space-y-1.5">
+      <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[10px]">
+        <span className={clsx('font-semibold px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded border', sourceColor)}>
+          {sourceLabel}
+        </span>
+        <span className="text-slate-500">
+          {hasData ? `${n} trade${n > 1 ? 's' : ''} matures` : 'Aucun trade mature'}
+        </span>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* Blend bar */}
+      <div className="space-y-0.5">
+        <div className="flex justify-between text-[10px] text-slate-500">
+          <span>IA pure</span>
+          <span className="text-slate-400 font-mono">{w.toFixed(0)}% observé</span>
+          <span>Observé</span>
+        </div>
+        <div className="h-1.5 rounded-full bg-slate-700/60 overflow-hidden">
+          <div
+            className="h-full rounded-full bg-gradient-to-r from-slate-500 to-violet-500 transition-all duration-500"
+            style={{ width: `${Math.max(w, 2)}%` }}
+          />
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      {hasData && (
+        <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-1 text-[10px]">
+          <div className="bg-dark-700/60 rounded px-1.5 py-1 text-center">
+            <div className="text-slate-400 font-mono">{(cal.bayes_win_rate * 100).toFixed(0)}%</div>
+            <div className="text-slate-600">Win rate</div>
+          </div>
+          <div className="bg-dark-700/60 rounded px-1.5 py-1 text-center">
+            <div className="text-slate-400 font-mono">
+              {cal.ai_estimate != null ? `${cal.ai_estimate.toFixed(0)}%` : '—'}
+            </div>
+            <div className="text-slate-600">IA estim.</div>
+          </div>
+          <div className={clsx('rounded px-1.5 py-1 text-center', cal.calibrated_expected_move ? 'bg-violet-900/30' : 'bg-dark-700/60')}>
+            <div className={clsx('font-mono', cal.calibrated_expected_move ? 'text-violet-300' : 'text-slate-600')}>
+              {cal.calibrated_expected_move != null ? `${cal.calibrated_expected_move.toFixed(0)}%` : '—'}
+            </div>
+            <div className="text-slate-600">Calibré</div>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
 // ── Pattern Card ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 function PatternCard({
   pattern,
   highlightTrades,
+  calibration,
 }: {
   pattern: Pattern
   highlightTrades?: string[]
+  calibration?: PatternCalibration
 }) {
   const [expanded,      setExpanded]      = useState(false)
   const [confirmDel,    setConfirmDel]    = useState(false)
@@ -373,6 +448,9 @@ function PatternCard({
         </div>
       )}
 
+      {/* Maturity & calibration */}
+      {calibration && <MaturityBadge cal={calibration} />}
+
       {/* Similarity result panel */}
       {simResult && (
         <div className={clsx(
@@ -503,7 +581,7 @@ const DIR_COLORS: Record<string, string> = {
   neutral: 'bg-amber-900/40 border-amber-600/50 text-amber-300',
 }
 
-function FacetedSearch({ patterns }: { patterns: Pattern[] }) {
+function FacetedSearch({ patterns, calibrationMap = {} }: { patterns: Pattern[]; calibrationMap?: Record<string, PatternCalibration> }) {
   const [query,      setQuery]      = useState('')
   const [direction,  setDirection]  = useState('')
   const [assetClass, setAssetClass] = useState('')
@@ -658,7 +736,7 @@ function FacetedSearch({ patterns }: { patterns: Pattern[] }) {
         </div>
       ) : (
         <div className="grid grid-cols-1 lg:grid-cols-2 xl:grid-cols-3 gap-3">
-          {filtered.map(p => <PatternCard key={p.id} pattern={p} />)}
+          {filtered.map(p => <PatternCard key={p.id} pattern={p} calibration={calibrationMap[p.id]} />)}
         </div>
       )}
     </div>
@@ -1025,6 +1103,12 @@ export default function PatternExplorer() {
   const [view, setView] = useState<ViewMode>('search')
   const { data: patternsData, isLoading } = useAllPatterns()
   const { data: _scores } = useLastScores()
+  const { data: calibrationData } = usePatternCalibration()
+
+  const calibrationMap = useMemo<Record<string, PatternCalibration>>(() => {
+    if (!calibrationData) return {}
+    return Object.fromEntries(calibrationData.map(c => [c.pattern_id, c]))
+  }, [calibrationData])
 
   const patterns = useMemo<Pattern[]>(() => {
     if (!Array.isArray(patternsData)) return []
@@ -1101,7 +1185,7 @@ export default function PatternExplorer() {
         </div>
       ) : (
         <>
-          {view === 'search' && <FacetedSearch patterns={patterns} />}
+          {view === 'search' && <FacetedSearch patterns={patterns} calibrationMap={calibrationMap} />}
           {view === 'instrument' && <InstrumentLens patterns={patterns} />}
           {view === 'regime' && <RegimeView patterns={patterns} />}
         </>