feat: market event

backend/routers/causal_lab.py

@@ -257,7 +257,11 @@ def _gpt4o_recommend(event: dict, templates: list) -> dict:
         system_prompt = (
             "You are a macro market analyst and causal graph specialist for the GeoOptions platform. "
             "Given a market event and a library of causal graph templates, recommend the most appropriate template "
-            "and suggest any coefficient adjustments. Respond with a JSON object only."
+            "and suggest any coefficient adjustments. Respond with a JSON object only.\n"
+            "IMPORTANT: Only recommend a template if it is structurally compatible with the event type "
+            "(same causal mechanism — e.g. do NOT recommend an ECB rate decision template for a sentiment survey). "
+            "If no template fits well (structural mismatch, confidence < 0.6), set template_id to null "
+            "and explain in 'notes' what kind of template would be needed."
         )
 
         user_prompt = f"""Market event to analyze:
@@ -875,6 +879,15 @@ def analyze_event(body: AnalyzeRequest):
                         pass
 
             # Sources legacy
+            elif src == "surprise_bps" and event.get("surprise_pct") is not None:
+                # Valeur brute en bps (ex: écart taux BCE en points de base)
+                raw = float(event["surprise_pct"])
+                node_range = cfg.get("range")
+                if node_range and len(node_range) == 2:
+                    lo, hi = float(node_range[0]), float(node_range[1])
+                    inputs[input_id] = round(max(lo, min(hi, raw)), 4)
+                else:
+                    inputs[input_id] = round(raw, 4)
             elif src == "surprise" and event.get("surprise_pct") is not None:
                 raw = float(event["surprise_pct"])
                 node_range = cfg.get("range")

frontend/src/pages/MarketEvents.tsx

@@ -509,8 +509,32 @@ function EventDetail({
         setRecMsg(`✓ ${rec.template_name}${rec.confidence ? ` (${Math.round(rec.confidence * 100)}%)` : ''}`)
         await instantiate(rec.template_id)
       } else {
-        setRecMsg('Aucun template adapté trouvé')
+        // Aucun template adapté — création automatique d'un nouveau
-        setNoTemplateFound(true)
+        setRecMsg('Aucun template adapté — création en cours…')
+        setNoTemplateFound(false)
+        setLoadingCreate(true)
+        try {
+          const cr = await fetch('/api/causal-lab/create-from-event', {
+            method: 'POST', headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+            body: JSON.stringify({ market_event_id: detail.id }),
+          })
+          const cd = await cr.json()
+          if (!cr.ok) throw new Error(cd.detail || cr.statusText)
+          const newTmplId = cd.template?.id ?? cd.template_id
+          if (newTmplId) {
+            setTemplates(prev => [...prev, cd.template].filter(Boolean))
+            setSelTmpl(newTmplId)
+            setRecMsg(`✦ Nouveau template créé : ${cd.template?.name ?? 'template'}`)
+            await instantiate(newTmplId)
+          } else {
+            setRecMsg('Template créé mais ID manquant')
+          }
+        } catch (ce: any) {
+          setRecMsg(`✗ Création échouée : ${ce.message}`)
+          setNoTemplateFound(true)
+        } finally {
+          setLoadingCreate(false)
+        }
       }
     } catch (e: any) { setRecMsg(`✗ ${(e as any).message}`) }
     finally { setLoadingRec(false) }