feat: macro regime + 30 historical events + regime confidence fix

- Add macro_regime (goldilocks/stagflation/recession/etc.) to every instrument snapshot via get_macro_gauges() + score_macro_scenarios()
- RegimeCard now shows global macro cycle section (emoji + label + top-3 scenarios) above technical signals
- Fix _detect_regime() confidence: capped at 85% max; add late-bull (dist_MA200 > 20%) and correction-in-bull (MA50 > MA200 but momentum < -3%) detection so regime no longer locks at 100%
- Add macro_events_bootstrap.py with 30 curated historical events (FOMC 2022-2025, CPI surprises, Ukraine/Hamas/Iran geopolitics, BOJ pivots, Bitcoin ETF, Liberation Day tariffs, SVB crisis, etc.)
- POST /api/timeline/bootstrap-macro endpoint (idempotent, deduplicates by name)
- Fix event date filter in _get_relevant_events(): overlap logic instead of start-only filter — events extending into the chart window are now included
- EventTimelineStrip: add "Signaux Techniques" fallback row for events not matched by any driver keyword (MA crossovers are now always visible)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/pages/InstrumentDashboard.tsx

@@ -44,11 +44,22 @@ interface TrendMetrics {
   current_price: number; high_52w: number; low_52w: number
 }
 
+interface MacroRegime {
+  dominant: string
+  label: string
+  color: string
+  emoji: string
+  scores: Record<string, number>
+  ranked: string[]
+  asset_bias: Record<string, any>
+}
+
 interface Snapshot {
   instrument: InstrumentConfig
   price_data: PriceCandle[]
   indicators: Record<string, LinePoint[]>
   regime: { current: string; confidence: number; scores: Record<string, number>; signals: RegimeSignals }
+  macro_regime: MacroRegime
   trend: TrendMetrics
   events: SnapshotEvent[]
   current_price: number; change_pct: number; change_abs: number; period: string
@@ -103,12 +114,31 @@ function pctN(a: number | undefined, b: number | undefined): number {
   return ((a - b) / b) * 100
 }
 
+// ── Macro regime colour mapping ───────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+const MACRO_COLOR_MAP: Record<string, string> = {
+  goldilocks:       'emerald',
+  desinflation:     'cyan',
+  soft_landing:     'blue',
+  reflation:        'amber',
+  stagflation:      'orange',
+  inflation_shock:  'red',
+  recession:        'red',
+  crise_liquidite:  'red',
+  incertain:        'slate',
+}
+
+function macroRegimeColor(dominant: string): string {
+  return MACRO_COLOR_MAP[dominant] ?? 'slate'
+}
+
 // ── RegimeCard (métriques de signaux) ─────────────────────────────────────────
 
 function RegimeCard({
-  regime, signalsAt, dateLabel,
+  regime, macroRegime, signalsAt, dateLabel,
 }: {
   regime: Snapshot['regime']
+  macroRegime: MacroRegime | null
   signalsAt: RegimeSignals | null
   dateLabel: string
 }) {
@@ -121,6 +151,8 @@ function RegimeCard({
     orange:  'border-orange-700/40 bg-orange-950/30',
     slate:   'border-slate-700/40 bg-slate-900/30',
     blue:    'border-blue-700/40 bg-blue-950/30',
+    cyan:    'border-cyan-700/40 bg-cyan-950/30',
+    amber:   'border-amber-700/40 bg-amber-950/30',
   }
 
   // 6 signal metrics displayed as a compact grid
@@ -163,20 +195,55 @@ function RegimeCard({
     },
   ]
 
+  // Macro regime display
+  const macroCol = macroRegime ? macroRegimeColor(macroRegime.dominant) : 'slate'
+  const top3Macro = macroRegime?.ranked?.slice(0, 3) ?? []
+
   return (
     <div className={clsx('rounded-xl border p-4 space-y-3', borderMap[col])}>
       {/* Header */}
       <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
         <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
           <BarChart2 className={clsx('w-4 h-4', `text-${col}-400`)} />
-          <span className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wide">Régime Détecté</span>
+          <span className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wide">Régime</span>
         </div>
         <span className="text-xs text-slate-600">{dateLabel}</span>
       </div>
 
-      {/* Regime label + confidence */}
+      {/* Macro regime section (global cycle) */}
+      {macroRegime && macroRegime.dominant !== 'incertain' && (
+        <div className="rounded-lg border border-slate-700/30 bg-dark-700/40 px-3 py-2 space-y-1.5">
+          <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
+            <span className="text-xs text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-wide">Cycle macro global</span>
+            <span className="text-xs text-slate-600">Fed cycle</span>
+          </div>
+          <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+            <span className="text-base">{macroRegime.emoji || '🌍'}</span>
+            <span className={clsx('text-sm font-bold', `text-${macroCol}-300`)}>{macroRegime.label || macroRegime.dominant}</span>
+          </div>
+          {top3Macro.length > 0 && (
+            <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-1 pt-0.5">
+              {top3Macro.map((key, i) => {
+                const score = macroRegime.scores?.[key]
+                const c = macroRegimeColor(key)
+                return (
+                  <span key={key} className={clsx(
+                    'text-xs px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded border',
+                    i === 0 ? `text-${c}-300 bg-${c}-900/30 border-${c}-700/40` : 'text-slate-500 bg-dark-800/40 border-slate-700/30'
+                  )}>
+                    {key} {score !== undefined ? Math.round(score) + '%' : ''}
+                  </span>
+                )
+              })}
+            </div>
+          )}
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* Technical regime label + confidence */}
       <div className={clsx('rounded-lg px-3 py-2', `bg-${col}-900/20`)}>
-        <div className={clsx('text-base font-bold leading-tight', `text-${col}-300`)}>{regime.current}</div>
+        <div className="text-xs text-slate-500 mb-0.5">Régime technique</div>
+        <div className={clsx('text-sm font-bold leading-tight', `text-${col}-300`)}>{regime.current}</div>
         <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mt-1">
           <div className="flex-1 h-1.5 bg-slate-800 rounded-full overflow-hidden">
             <div className={clsx('h-full rounded-full', `bg-${col}-500`)}
@@ -409,6 +476,13 @@ function EventTimelineStrip({
   // Top 4 drivers by weight
   const topDrivers = [...drivers].sort((a, b) => b.weight - a.weight).slice(0, 4)
 
+  // Events matched by ANY driver (for fallback row)
+  const allKeywords = topDrivers.flatMap(d => d.keywords ?? [])
+  const matchedAnyIdxs = new Set(
+    events.map((ev, i) => eventMatchesDriver(ev, allKeywords) ? i : -1).filter(i => i >= 0)
+  )
+  const unmatchedEvs = events.filter((_ev, i) => !matchedAnyIdxs.has(i))
+
   return (
     <div className="bg-dark-900/40 rounded-xl border border-slate-700/40 px-4 py-3">
       <div className="text-xs text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-wide mb-2.5">Événements par driver</div>
@@ -453,6 +527,34 @@ function EventTimelineStrip({
             </div>
           )
         })}
+
+        {/* Fallback row: events not matched by any driver keyword */}
+        {unmatchedEvs.length > 0 && (
+          <div className="flex items-center gap-2 h-6">
+            <span className="text-xs font-semibold shrink-0 truncate w-28 text-slate-500"
+              style={{ fontSize: 10 }}>Signaux tech.</span>
+            <div className="relative flex-1 h-full" style={{ paddingRight: 62 }}>
+              {unmatchedEvs.map((ev, i) => {
+                const left  = leftPct(ev.date)
+                const width = widthPct(ev.date, ev.end_date)
+                return (
+                  <div key={i}
+                    title={`${ev.title}\n${ev.date}${ev.end_date ? ' → ' + ev.end_date : ''}\n${ev.description ?? ''}`}
+                    className="absolute top-0 h-full rounded border overflow-hidden bg-slate-700/40 border-slate-600/40"
+                    style={{ left: `${left}%`, width: `${width}%` }}
+                  >
+                    {width > 3 && (
+                      <span className="absolute inset-0 flex items-center px-1 truncate pointer-events-none text-slate-400"
+                        style={{ fontSize: 9 }}>
+                        {ev.title}
+                      </span>
+                    )}
+                  </div>
+                )
+              })}
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        )}
       </div>
     </div>
   )
@@ -834,6 +936,7 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard() {
           <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4">
             <RegimeCard
               regime={snapshot.regime}
+              macroRegime={snapshot.macro_regime ?? null}
               signalsAt={dateSignals}
               dateLabel={dateLabel}
             />