feat: cockpit

backend/routers/portfolio.py

@@ -63,7 +63,8 @@ def mark_to_market(pos: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
     days_to_expiry = T * 365
 
     r = 0.05
-    chain, surface = resolve_saxo_chain(underlying, target_days=max(int(days_to_expiry), 1))
+    chain, surface = resolve_saxo_chain(underlying, target_days=max(int(days_to_expiry), 1),
+                                         sanity_reference=pos.get("entry_underlying_price"))
 
     # yfinance fallback inputs — only actually fetched if no usable Saxo chain, so a
     # Saxo-linked instrument never pays for a yfinance round-trip it doesn't need.
@@ -276,13 +277,18 @@ def add_pos(req: AddPositionRequest):
 
         # Underlying price — Saxo option chain's own spot first (real, and consistent with
         # whatever prices the legs below), yfinance only if this underlying has no
-        # saxo_option_symbol link at all (Config -> Instruments Watchlist -> "Option").
+        # saxo_option_symbol link at all (Config -> Instruments Watchlist -> "Option"). The
-        chain, surface = resolve_saxo_chain(normalized, target_days=data.get("expiry_days", 90))
+        # yfinance quote is fetched unconditionally (cheap, one-time at creation) to also
+        # serve as resolve_saxo_chain's sanity_reference — guards against a Saxo chain whose
+        # spot is on a different scale (observed on COMEX copper, ~100x too large).
+        q = get_quote(normalized)
+        yf_spot = q.get("price") if q else None
+        chain, surface = resolve_saxo_chain(normalized, target_days=data.get("expiry_days", 90),
+                                             sanity_reference=yf_spot)
         S = chain["spot"] if chain else None
         sigma = None
         if S is None:
-            q = get_quote(normalized)
+            S = yf_spot
-            S = q.get("price") if q else None
             if S is not None:
                 sigma = compute_historical_iv(req.underlying)
         if not S:

backend/services/portfolio_pricing.py

@@ -25,10 +25,23 @@ from typing import Any, Dict, Optional, Tuple
 from services.options_pricer import black_scholes
 
 
-def resolve_saxo_chain(underlying: str, target_days: int) -> Tuple[Optional[Dict[str, Any]], Optional[Any]]:
+def resolve_saxo_chain(
+    underlying: str, target_days: int, sanity_reference: Optional[float] = None,
+) -> Tuple[Optional[Dict[str, Any]], Optional[Any]]:
     """Returns (chain_slice, Surface) for this underlying's linked Saxo option chain, or
     (None, None) if it isn't linked, or the chain can't be built right now (Saxo down, no
-    snapshot yet, entitlement gap, etc.) — callers fall back to yfinance pricing in that case."""
+    snapshot yet, entitlement gap, etc.) — callers fall back to yfinance pricing in that case.
+
+    `sanity_reference` (typically the position's entry_underlying_price, or a fresh
+    yfinance quote at creation time) guards against a chain whose "spot" is on a different
+    scale than the rest of the app expects. Saxo's option-chain snapshot has no dedicated
+    underlying-quote field (see saxo_client.snapshot_options_chain's MidStrikePrice-as-spot
+    comment), so for at least one real instrument (COMEX copper, HG=F) it has been observed
+    coming back ~100x too large — silently corrupting every downstream Black-Scholes reprice
+    for that position (current spot showing $649 against a real ~$6.3/lb). A >5x or <0.2x
+    deviation from a known-good reference is never a real intraday/short-term move for the
+    instruments this app trades, so it's treated as a mis-scaled/wrong quote rather than a
+    genuine price — safer to fall back to yfinance than to trust an unverifiable number."""
     from services.database import get_saxo_option_symbol_for_ticker
     saxo_symbol = get_saxo_option_symbol_for_ticker(underlying)
     if not saxo_symbol:
@@ -37,9 +50,20 @@ def resolve_saxo_chain(underlying: str, target_days: int) -> Tuple[Optional[Dict
         from services.option_chain import get_chain_slice
         from services.vol_surface import Surface
         chain = get_chain_slice(saxo_symbol, target_days=max(target_days, 1))
-        if not chain.get("spot"):
+        spot = chain.get("spot")
+        if not spot:
             return None, None
-        surface = Surface(chain["spot"], chain["expiries"])
+        if sanity_reference and sanity_reference > 0:
+            ratio = spot / sanity_reference
+            if ratio > 5 or ratio < 0.2:
+                import logging
+                logging.getLogger(__name__).warning(
+                    f"[portfolio_pricing] Saxo chain spot for '{underlying}' ({spot}) is "
+                    f"{ratio:.1f}x the reference ({sanity_reference}) — treating as a "
+                    f"mis-scaled/unusable quote, falling back to yfinance."
+                )
+                return None, None
+        surface = Surface(spot, chain["expiries"])
         return chain, surface
     except Exception:
         return None, None
@@ -106,7 +130,8 @@ def compute_payoff(pos: Dict[str, Any], n_points: int = 61, range_pct: float = 0
         days_remaining = max(0, pos.get("expiry_days", 90) - (date.today() - entry).days)
 
     r = 0.05
-    chain, surface = resolve_saxo_chain(underlying, target_days=max(days_remaining, 1))
+    chain, surface = resolve_saxo_chain(underlying, target_days=max(days_remaining, 1),
+                                         sanity_reference=pos.get("entry_underlying_price"))
     fallback_spot = pos.get("entry_underlying_price") or 100.0
     fallback_sigma = 0.20
     if chain is None:

backend/services/portfolio_scenarios.py

@@ -138,7 +138,8 @@ def _resolve_position_market(pos: Dict[str, Any]):
         entry = datetime.strptime(pos["entry_date"][:10], "%Y-%m-%d").date()
         days_remaining = max(0, pos.get("expiry_days", 90) - (date.today() - entry).days)
 
-    chain, surface = resolve_saxo_chain(underlying, target_days=max(days_remaining, 1))
+    chain, surface = resolve_saxo_chain(underlying, target_days=max(days_remaining, 1),
+                                         sanity_reference=pos.get("entry_underlying_price"))
     fallback_spot = pos.get("entry_underlying_price") or 100.0
     fallback_sigma = 0.20
     if chain is None:

frontend/src/pages/Dashboard.tsx

@@ -109,7 +109,11 @@ export default function Dashboard() {
   const navigate = useNavigate()
   const { data: riskScore, isLoading: riskLoading } = useGeoRiskScore()
   const { data: allQuotes } = useAllQuotes()
-  const { data: ecoCalendarData } = useEcoCalendar({ period: 'recent', limit: 150, impacts: 'high,medium,low' })
+  // limit must comfortably cover the full ±(7d past, 14d future) "recent" window across all
+  // currencies/impacts — ORDER BY event_date ASC means a too-small limit gets entirely
+  // consumed by the past-week + very-near-term events, silently truncating this week's
+  // later days (e.g. Tue-Thu) out of the response before the frontend ever sees them.
+  const { data: ecoCalendarData } = useEcoCalendar({ period: 'recent', limit: 400, impacts: 'high,medium,low' })
   const { data: portfolio } = usePortfolioSummary()
   const { data: lastScoresData } = useLastScores()
   const { data: allPatternsData } = useAllPatterns()