""" Generic N-leg (1-4) option strategy pricer: entry cost with real broker spread, scenario repricing at a future horizon on a shocked vol surface, payoff curves, greeks, and bounded-risk / non-directional checks. A "leg" dict: {expiry_date, days_to_expiry, strike, option_type ("call"/"put"), position ("long"/"short"), quantity} """ import math from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional import numpy as np from scipy.optimize import minimize_scalar from services.options_pricer import black_scholes from services.option_chain import find_quote from services.vol_surface import Surface, ScenarioSurface DEFAULT_SPREAD_PCT = 0.05 # fallback relative bid/ask spread when no live quote is found DEFAULT_CONTRACT_SIZE = 100_000 # notional per 1 contract/lot (e.g. a standard FX lot); "quantity" on a leg is the number of these def to_native(obj: Any) -> Any: """Recursively converts numpy scalars (bool_, int64, float64, ...) to native Python types. Comparisons/aggregations over numpy-typed inputs (e.g. bid/ask sourced from a DB row that came back as a numpy type, or scipy's norm.cdf) can leave a stray numpy.bool_/numpy.float64 buried in a nested result — FastAPI's default JSON encoder doesn't know those types and fails ('X object is not iterable', then a secondary 'vars() argument must have __dict__ attribute' from its own fallback). Applied once at the API boundary (price_combo/payoff_curves/optimizer results) rather than chasing the exact field through the whole pricing pipeline.""" if isinstance(obj, dict): return {k: to_native(v) for k, v in obj.items()} if isinstance(obj, (list, tuple)): return [to_native(v) for v in obj] if isinstance(obj, np.generic): return obj.item() return obj def _sign(leg: Dict[str, Any]) -> int: return 1 if leg.get("position", "long") == "long" else -1 def _intrinsic(S: float, K: float, option_type: str) -> float: return max(0.0, S - K) if option_type == "call" else max(0.0, K - S) def _quote_spread_pct(quote: Optional[Dict[str, Any]]) -> float: if not quote or quote["bid"] <= 0 or quote["ask"] <= 0: return DEFAULT_SPREAD_PCT mid = (quote["bid"] + quote["ask"]) / 2 if mid <= 0: return DEFAULT_SPREAD_PCT return (quote["ask"] - quote["bid"]) / mid def entry_price(leg: Dict[str, Any], chain_slice: Dict[str, Any], surface_now: Surface, r: float) -> Dict[str, float]: """Real execution price (crossing the spread) + theoretical mid, for one leg today.""" quote = find_quote(chain_slice, leg["expiry_date"], leg["strike"], leg["option_type"]) T = max(leg["days_to_expiry"], 0.001) / 365 sigma = surface_now.iv_at(leg["strike"], leg["days_to_expiry"]) theo_mid = black_scholes(chain_slice["spot"], leg["strike"], T, r, sigma, leg["option_type"])["price"] if quote and quote["bid"] > 0 and quote["ask"] > 0: exec_price = quote["ask"] if leg.get("position", "long") == "long" else quote["bid"] mid = quote["mid"] or theo_mid else: spread = theo_mid * DEFAULT_SPREAD_PCT exec_price = theo_mid + spread / 2 if leg.get("position", "long") == "long" else max(0.0, theo_mid - spread / 2) mid = theo_mid return {"exec_price": exec_price, "mid": mid, "spread_pct": _quote_spread_pct(quote)} def value_at( legs: List[Dict[str, Any]], S: float, eval_days_from_now: float, surface: Any, r: float, contract_size: float = DEFAULT_CONTRACT_SIZE, ) -> float: """Signed portfolio value (BS reprice for unexpired legs, intrinsic for expired ones).""" total = 0.0 for leg in legs: remaining = leg["days_to_expiry"] - eval_days_from_now qty = leg.get("quantity", 1) sign = _sign(leg) if remaining <= 0: price = _intrinsic(S, leg["strike"], leg["option_type"]) else: sigma = surface.iv_at(leg["strike"], remaining) price = black_scholes(S, leg["strike"], remaining / 365, r, sigma, leg["option_type"])["price"] total += sign * price * qty * contract_size return total def greeks_at(legs: List[Dict[str, Any]], S: float, eval_days_from_now: float, surface: Any, r: float) -> Dict[str, float]: net = {"delta": 0.0, "gamma": 0.0, "theta": 0.0, "vega": 0.0} for leg in legs: remaining = max(leg["days_to_expiry"] - eval_days_from_now, 0.001) qty = leg.get("quantity", 1) sign = _sign(leg) sigma = surface.iv_at(leg["strike"], remaining) g = black_scholes(S, leg["strike"], remaining / 365, r, sigma, leg["option_type"]) for k in net: net[k] += g[k] * qty * sign return {k: round(v, 4) for k, v in net.items()} def price_combo( legs: List[Dict[str, Any]], chain_slice: Dict[str, Any], surface_now: Surface, surface_scenario: ScenarioSurface, horizon_days: int, r: float = 0.05, contract_size: float = DEFAULT_CONTRACT_SIZE, precise: bool = True, ) -> Dict[str, Any]: spot_now = chain_slice["spot"] spot_scenario = surface_scenario.spot entry_ref = 0.0 entry_ref_mid = 0.0 for leg in legs: ep = entry_price(leg, chain_slice, surface_now, r) sign = _sign(leg) qty = leg.get("quantity", 1) entry_ref += sign * ep["exec_price"] * qty * contract_size entry_ref_mid += sign * ep["mid"] * qty * contract_size # Scenario exit: apply each leg's own bid/ask spread (est. from entry quote) to the # theoretical scenario value, since we don't have a live quote for the future date. scenario_mid = 0.0 scenario_exec = 0.0 for leg in legs: remaining = max(leg["days_to_expiry"] - horizon_days, 0.001) qty = leg.get("quantity", 1) sign = _sign(leg) sigma = surface_scenario.iv_at(leg["strike"], remaining) theo = black_scholes(spot_scenario, leg["strike"], remaining / 365, r, sigma, leg["option_type"])["price"] quote = find_quote(chain_slice, leg["expiry_date"], leg["strike"], leg["option_type"]) spread_pct = _quote_spread_pct(quote) exec_price = theo * (1 - spread_pct / 2) if leg.get("position", "long") == "long" else theo * (1 + spread_pct / 2) scenario_mid += sign * theo * qty * contract_size scenario_exec += sign * exec_price * qty * contract_size net_pnl = scenario_exec - entry_ref broker_cost = (entry_ref - entry_ref_mid) + (scenario_mid - scenario_exec) # Uses surface_scenario (not surface_now): for a single-expiry combo (condor, # butterfly, straddle...) all legs are simultaneously intrinsic at eval_days, so the # surface is never actually consulted there and this changes nothing. For a # calendar/diagonal spread, the far leg is still alive at the near leg's expiry and # DOES need a vol assumption to be priced — using surface_now there silently mixed # "today's vol" into a number sitting next to net_pnl (which uses the scenario's # shocked vol), producing a max_gain that could be below net_pnl. Pricing both with # the same scenario vol view keeps them consistent. bounded = check_bounded_risk(legs, entry_ref, surface_scenario, spot_now, r, contract_size, precise) delta_now = greeks_at(legs, spot_now, 0, surface_now, r)["delta"] delta_scenario = greeks_at(legs, spot_scenario, horizon_days, surface_scenario, r)["delta"] return to_native({ "entry_cost": round(entry_ref, 2), "entry_cost_mid": round(entry_ref_mid, 2), "scenario_value": round(scenario_exec, 2), "scenario_value_mid": round(scenario_mid, 2), "net_pnl": round(net_pnl, 2), "broker_spread_cost": round(broker_cost, 2), "max_gain": bounded["max_gain"], "max_loss": bounded["max_loss"], "bounded_risk": bounded["bounded"], "greeks_now": greeks_at(legs, spot_now, 0, surface_now, r), "greeks_scenario": greeks_at(legs, spot_scenario, horizon_days, surface_scenario, r), "net_delta_now": delta_now, "net_delta_scenario": delta_scenario, }) def check_bounded_risk( legs: List[Dict[str, Any]], entry_ref: float, surface: Any, spot: float, r: float = 0.05, contract_size: float = DEFAULT_CONTRACT_SIZE, precise: bool = True, ) -> Dict[str, Any]: """ Scan a wide log-spaced spot range at expiry and inspect both tails independently for LOSS vs GAIN direction. "Bounded risk" only requires the loss side to be capped — a long straddle (loss capped at the premium, gain uncapped) is a textbook risk-bounded, non-directional trade and must not be excluded just because its gain is open-ended. A tail is loss-bounded if moving further to that extreme does not make the P&L any worse than a point already well into that tail; symmetrically for gain-bounded. "At expiry" means the earliest expiry among the legs. For a single-expiry combo that's every leg simultaneously (pure intrinsic, no vol assumption involved at all). For a calendar/diagonal spread it's only the near leg — the far leg is still alive and needs `surface` to be priced, so max_gain/max_loss there is only as good as that vol input. `precise=False` skips only the 1-D refinement below (the expensive part — two minimize_scalar calls). The dense near-strike grid stays even in the fast path: a long straddle's max loss (or a butterfly's max gain) sits exactly AT a strike too, same as a calendar spread's peak, and the wide log-spaced tail grid alone is coarse enough near the money to miss it by an order of magnitude, not just a rounding difference (confirmed: on a real long straddle, tail-grid-only reported max_loss=-117 when the true V-bottom at the strike was -1140 — nearly 10x off, and wrong enough to silently let a candidate past a max_loss_cap filter it should have failed). The optimizer's bulk scan (hundreds of candidates) uses this fast path for speed; the single-candidate /price call refines further with minimize_scalar for pixel-perfect precision. """ eval_days = min(l["days_to_expiry"] for l in legs) def f(s: float) -> float: return value_at(legs, s, eval_days, surface, r, contract_size) - entry_ref # Wide, log-spaced tail grid — used to detect whether the payoff flattens out (bounded) # toward either extreme, or keeps moving further away. tail_grid = np.geomspace(spot * 0.05, spot * 20, 300) tail_values = [f(float(p)) for p in tail_grid] tail_n = max(3, len(tail_values) // 30) tol = max(abs(entry_ref), 1.0) * 0.01 lo_edge, lo_in = tail_values[0], tail_values[tail_n] hi_edge, hi_in = tail_values[-1], tail_values[-1 - tail_n] loss_bounded = (lo_edge >= lo_in - tol) and (hi_edge >= hi_in - tol) gain_bounded = (lo_edge <= lo_in + tol) and (hi_edge <= hi_in + tol) # Dense linear sweep across the legs' own strikes — needed even in the fast path (see # docstring above), only the final 1-D refinement is reserved for precise=True. strikes = [l["strike"] for l in legs] lo_k, hi_k = min(strikes) * 0.7, max(strikes) * 1.3 near_grid = np.linspace(max(lo_k, spot * 0.05), min(hi_k, spot * 20), 400) near_values = [f(float(p)) for p in near_grid] combined_values = tail_values + near_values if not precise: return { "bounded": loss_bounded, "max_loss": round(min(combined_values), 2) if loss_bounded else None, "max_gain": round(max(combined_values), 2) if gain_bounded else None, } # Any FIXED grid — however dense — is a different finite sampling of the same # continuous curve than whatever grid a chart or another caller uses, so two "close but # not identical" readings of the same peak are pretty much guaranteed (confirmed: this # grid vs the payoff chart's own grid gave two different peak heights for the same # trade). Refine with a bounded 1-D optimizer around the grid's own best point instead. grid_all = np.concatenate([tail_grid, near_grid]) values_all = np.concatenate([tail_values, near_values]) order = np.argsort(grid_all) grid_sorted, values_sorted = grid_all[order], values_all[order] # ...then refine with a bounded 1-D optimizer in a NARROW bracket around that grid # point (the payoff at a fixed date/vol is smooth in spot, built from Black-Scholes). # A wide bracket is actively harmful here: tested directly on a real calendar spread, # minimize_scalar given a wide bound (±50% of the strike) converged on a flat false # optimum far from the true spike (-65 instead of +1170) because Brent's method isn't # guaranteed to find the global optimum over a non-unimodal interval. Anchoring the # bracket tightly around the grid's own best point keeps the search unimodal, and # taking max()/min() against the grid value means refinement can never do worse. def refine(is_max: bool) -> float: idx = int(np.argmax(values_sorted)) if is_max else int(np.argmin(values_sorted)) grid_value = float(values_sorted[idx]) step = grid_sorted[min(idx + 1, len(grid_sorted) - 1)] - grid_sorted[max(idx - 1, 0)] step = float(step) if step > 0 else spot * 0.001 lo_b, hi_b = grid_sorted[idx] - 3 * step, grid_sorted[idx] + 3 * step if lo_b >= hi_b: return grid_value res = minimize_scalar((lambda s: -f(s)) if is_max else f, bounds=(float(lo_b), float(hi_b)), method="bounded") refined = -res.fun if is_max else res.fun return max(refined, grid_value) if is_max else min(refined, grid_value) return { "bounded": loss_bounded, "max_loss": round(refine(False), 2) if loss_bounded else None, "max_gain": round(refine(True), 2) if gain_bounded else None, } def payoff_curve_expiry(legs: List[Dict[str, Any]], surface_now: Surface, spot: float, n: int = 100, contract_size: float = DEFAULT_CONTRACT_SIZE) -> List[Dict[str, float]]: eval_days = min(l["days_to_expiry"] for l in legs) prices = np.linspace(spot * 0.5, spot * 1.5, n) return [ {"underlying": round(float(p), 2), "pnl": round(float(value_at(legs, float(p), eval_days, surface_now, 0.05, contract_size)), 2)} for p in prices ] def expected_pnl_scenario( legs: List[Dict[str, Any]], surface_scenario: ScenarioSurface, horizon_days: int, r: float, entry_ref: float, n: int = 200, contract_size: float = DEFAULT_CONTRACT_SIZE, ) -> float: """ Probability-weighted expected P&L at the scenario date: integrates the payoff over a risk-neutral lognormal density for the underlying, centered on the scenario spot with a variance driven by the scenario surface's ATM IV over the residual time to the nearest leg's expiry (the remaining uncertainty once the scenario date is reached). """ spot_scenario = surface_scenario.spot remaining = max(min(l["days_to_expiry"] for l in legs) - horizon_days, 1) sigma = surface_scenario.iv_at(spot_scenario, remaining) T = remaining / 365 sd = sigma * math.sqrt(T) if sd <= 1e-6: return value_at(legs, spot_scenario, horizon_days, surface_scenario, r, contract_size) - entry_ref mu = math.log(spot_scenario) + (r - 0.5 * sigma ** 2) * T grid = np.geomspace(spot_scenario * 0.15, spot_scenario * 4, n) log_grid = np.log(grid) density = np.exp(-0.5 * ((log_grid - mu) / sd) ** 2) / (grid * sd * math.sqrt(2 * math.pi)) pnl = np.array([value_at(legs, float(s), horizon_days, surface_scenario, r, contract_size) - entry_ref for s in grid]) numerator = np.trapz(pnl * density, grid) denominator = np.trapz(density, grid) return float(numerator / denominator) if denominator > 1e-12 else float(pnl.mean()) def payoff_curves( legs: List[Dict[str, Any]], chain_slice: Dict[str, Any], surface_now: Surface, surface_scenario: ScenarioSurface, horizon_days: int, r: float = 0.05, n: int = 100, contract_size: float = DEFAULT_CONTRACT_SIZE, ) -> Dict[str, Any]: spot = chain_slice["spot"] priced = price_combo(legs, chain_slice, surface_now, surface_scenario, horizon_days, r, contract_size) entry_ref = priced["entry_cost"] lo, hi = spot * 0.6, spot * 1.4 # A calendar/ratio spread's payoff can spike sharply right at a strike — a plain # uniform sweep over the full 0.6x-1.4x range (n points) can straddle right over that # peak without ever sampling it (same issue fixed in check_bounded_risk). Blend a # coarse baseline (overall shape) with a dense window around the legs' own strikes. # The exact spot/scenario spot are forced in as sample points too — otherwise hovering # right on the "Spot"/"Scénario" reference line reads the nearest grid point, which can # sit meaningfully off the true value on a peak this steep, and disagree with the # entry_cost/net_pnl tiles (computed at the exact spot, not a grid sample). baseline = np.linspace(lo, hi, n) strikes = [l["strike"] for l in legs] lo_k, hi_k = max(min(strikes) * 0.9, lo), min(max(strikes) * 1.1, hi) near_strikes = np.linspace(lo_k, hi_k, n * 3) exact_points = np.array([spot, surface_scenario.spot] + strikes) prices = np.unique(np.concatenate([baseline, near_strikes, exact_points])) prices.sort() eval_days_expiry = min(l["days_to_expiry"] for l in legs) # Both curves share the scenario's volatility view (surface_scenario) — only the # evaluation DATE differs: "à échéance" prices the day the near leg expires (matching # the Max gain/Max perte tile, itself computed with surface_scenario for the same # reason — see check_bounded_risk), "à J+8" prices your chosen scenario horizon. Using # surface_now here instead would silently mix in today's un-shocked vol, producing a # curve whose peak doesn't match the Max gain tile right next to it. at_expiry = [ {"underlying": round(float(p), 4), "pnl": round(float(value_at(legs, float(p), eval_days_expiry, surface_scenario, r, contract_size) - entry_ref), 2)} for p in prices ] at_scenario = [ {"underlying": round(float(p), 4), "pnl": round(float(value_at(legs, float(p), horizon_days, surface_scenario, r, contract_size) - entry_ref), 2)} for p in prices ] return {"at_expiry": at_expiry, "at_scenario": at_scenario, **priced}