""" Retrospective "what would have been optimal" comparison for an existing Portfolio position — reuses the Strategy Builder optimizer (services.strategy_optimizer.optimize) against the REAL historical option chain reconstructed as of the position's entry_date (services.option_chain.get_chain_slice's `as_of` param, backed by services.database.get_snapshot_rows_asof — the accumulated Saxo snapshot history, not synthetic data), scored against the REALIZED spot/IV move between entry and the comparison date rather than a guessed scenario — it's not a forecast, it's what actually happened. Results are compared in PERCENTAGE terms (return on capital / return on risk), never raw dollars: Strategy Builder's own pricer (services.strategy_engine, contract_size configurable, FX-lot-style default 100_000) and Portfolio's pricer (services.portfolio_pricing, hardcoded qty*100 equity-option-style) use different contract-size conventions for historical reasons — comparing their dollar outputs directly would silently misstate the comparison by orders of magnitude (the exact class of bug this project hit before with the COMEX copper scale issue). A % return is convention-agnostic since the contract size cancels out of the ratio. """ from datetime import date, datetime from typing import Any, Dict, Optional def _reprice_actual_legs_pct( legs: list, chain_entry: Dict[str, Any], surface_entry, surface_realized, horizon_days: int, capital_invested: float, ib_fees_entry: float, ) -> Optional[float]: """% return of the position's REAL legs, priced at entry (services.portfolio_pricing's own qty*100 convention — mirrored here, not imported, since that module's functions are tied to "now" market data, not a historical `as_of` chain) then repriced under the realized move. Returns None if the position has no legs to price.""" from services.options_pricer import black_scholes from services.option_chain import find_quote if not legs: return None r = 0.05 S_entry = chain_entry["spot"] S_realized = surface_realized.spot T_remaining = max(horizon_days, 0) / 365 pnl = -ib_fees_entry for leg in legs: K = leg.get("strike") or S_entry opt_type = leg.get("option_type", "call") qty = leg.get("quantity", 1) sign = 1 if leg.get("position", "long") == "long" else -1 days_to_expiry = leg.get("days_to_expiry", 90) entry_premium = leg.get("premium_paid") if entry_premium is None: quote = find_quote(chain_entry, leg.get("expiry_date", ""), K, opt_type) if quote and quote.get("bid", 0) > 0 and quote.get("ask", 0) > 0: entry_premium = quote["mid"] else: sigma_entry = surface_entry.iv_at(K, days_to_expiry) entry_premium = black_scholes(S_entry, K, max(days_to_expiry, 1) / 365, r, sigma_entry, opt_type)["price"] remaining = max(days_to_expiry - horizon_days, 0.001) sigma_realized = surface_realized.iv_at(K, remaining) realized_price = ( black_scholes(S_realized, K, remaining / 365, r, sigma_realized, opt_type)["price"] if T_remaining > 0 and remaining > 0.001 else (max(0.0, S_realized - K) if opt_type == "call" else max(0.0, K - S_realized)) ) pnl += sign * qty * 100 * (realized_price - entry_premium) if not capital_invested: return None return round(pnl / capital_invested * 100, 2) def compute_retrospective_comparison(pos: Dict[str, Any], as_of: Optional[str] = None) -> Dict[str, Any]: from services.database import get_saxo_option_symbol_for_ticker from services.option_chain import get_chain_slice from services.vol_surface import build_surface, apply_scenario from services.strategy_optimizer import optimize as run_optimizer underlying = pos["underlying"] saxo_symbol = get_saxo_option_symbol_for_ticker(underlying) if not saxo_symbol: return {"available": False, "reason": f"'{underlying}' n'est pas lié à un chain Saxo (Config → Instruments Watchlist)."} entry_date = pos["entry_date"][:10] as_of_date = (as_of or pos.get("close_date") or date.today().isoformat())[:10] if as_of_date <= entry_date: return {"available": False, "reason": "La date de comparaison doit être postérieure à la date d'entrée."} horizon_days = ( datetime.strptime(as_of_date, "%Y-%m-%d").date() - datetime.strptime(entry_date, "%Y-%m-%d").date() ).days target_days_entry = pos.get("expiry_days", 90) try: chain_entry = get_chain_slice(saxo_symbol, target_days=target_days_entry, n_expiries=3, as_of=entry_date) except ValueError as e: return {"available": False, "reason": f"Pas d'historique Saxo à la date d'entrée ({entry_date}) : {e}"} try: chain_realized = get_chain_slice( saxo_symbol, target_days=max(target_days_entry - horizon_days, 1), n_expiries=3, as_of=as_of_date if as_of else None, ) except ValueError as e: return {"available": False, "reason": f"Pas d'historique Saxo à la date de comparaison ({as_of_date}) : {e}"} surface_entry = build_surface(chain_entry) surface_realized_base = build_surface(chain_realized) spot_entry = chain_entry["spot"] spot_realized = chain_realized["spot"] if not spot_entry or not spot_realized: return {"available": False, "reason": "Spot manquant dans l'historique Saxo à l'une des deux dates."} realized_spot_shock_pct = round((spot_realized - spot_entry) / spot_entry * 100, 2) iv_entry = surface_entry.iv_at(spot_entry, target_days_entry) iv_realized = surface_realized_base.iv_at(spot_realized, max(target_days_entry - horizon_days, 1)) realized_iv_shift = round(iv_realized - iv_entry, 4) # The same realized shock, applied on top of the ENTRY surface — puts the "actual # position" and "optimal candidates" repricing on the exact same footing (both start # from what was really quoted at entry, both move by what really happened afterwards). surface_realized = apply_scenario(surface_entry, spot_shock_pct=realized_spot_shock_pct, iv_level_shift=realized_iv_shift) actual_return_pct = _reprice_actual_legs_pct( pos.get("legs", []), chain_entry, surface_entry, surface_realized, horizon_days, pos.get("capital_invested") or 0, pos.get("ib_fees_entry", 0), ) optimal_candidates = run_optimizer( symbol=saxo_symbol, horizon_days=horizon_days, spot_shock_pct=realized_spot_shock_pct, iv_level_shift=realized_iv_shift, skew_tilt=0.0, term_slope_shift=0.0, manual_grid=None, n_expiries=3, rate=0.05, constraints={"max_legs": 4, "delta_threshold": None, "max_loss_cap": None}, objective="net_pnl", top_n=5, as_of=entry_date, ) # NOT "return on max_loss": check_bounded_risk's worst-case search is unreliable for # multi-expiry (calendar/diagonal) structures — the far leg is still alive and vol- # dependent at the near leg's expiry, so its "max loss" can come out implausibly small # regardless of precise=True/False, producing a nonsense ratio (verified empirically: # >9000% "return on risk" on a diagonal in testing). Comparing against the SAME capital # basis as the actual position (capital_invested) sidesteps that search entirely — "if # you'd put the same money into this instead" is also a more direct answer to "what # should I have done" than a max-loss ratio would be. Repriced at contract_size=100 to # match Portfolio's own per-contract convention (see module docstring) rather than # Strategy Builder's default FX-lot size, so the dollar P&L this produces is actually on # the same footing as capital_invested, not just a same-shaped ratio. from services.strategy_engine import price_combo capital = pos.get("capital_invested") or 0 for c in optimal_candidates: try: precise = price_combo( c["legs"], chain_entry, surface_entry, surface_realized, horizon_days, r=0.05, contract_size=100, precise=True, ) c["net_pnl"], c["max_gain"], c["max_loss"] = precise["net_pnl"], precise["max_gain"], precise["max_loss"] c["net_delta_now"] = precise["net_delta_now"] c["return_on_capital_pct"] = round(precise["net_pnl"] / capital * 100, 2) if capital else None except Exception: c["return_on_capital_pct"] = None return { "available": True, "underlying": underlying, "saxo_symbol": saxo_symbol, "entry_date": entry_date, "as_of": as_of_date, "horizon_days": horizon_days, "spot_entry": round(spot_entry, 6), "spot_realized": round(spot_realized, 6), "realized_spot_shock_pct": realized_spot_shock_pct, "iv_entry": round(iv_entry, 4), "iv_realized": round(iv_realized, 4), "realized_iv_shift": realized_iv_shift, "actual_return_pct": actual_return_pct, "optimal_candidates": optimal_candidates, }