Files
OpenFin/backend/routers/patterns.py
OpenSquared 91f12e177f feat: pattern calibration — progressive AI→observed expected_move blending
DB (database.py):
- 3 new columns on custom_patterns: calibrated_expected_move, calibration_weight, observed_avg_win_pct
- update_bayesian_posteriors() now also computes credibility blend w=n/(n+5):
  calibrated = (1-w)*ai_estimate + w*observed_avg_win_pct (only when wins exist)
- log_trade_entries() prefers calibrated_expected_move when w>10%
- get_calibration_summary() returns per-pattern state (source: pure_ai/early/mixed/data_driven)

Backend (patterns.py, auto_cycle.py):
- GET /api/patterns/calibration endpoint
- calibration_report block in cycle report: counts by source, avg weight, per-pattern detail

Frontend (PatternExplorer.tsx, RapportIA.tsx, useApi.ts):
- MaturityBadge on each PatternCard: blend bar (AI→observed), win rate, AI estimate vs calibrated
- usePatternCalibration hook
- Cycle report: calibration section with global bar + per-pattern table (weight%, n_trades, WR, AI→calibrated)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 12:38:16 +02:00

358 lines
13 KiB
Python

import json
import logging
from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException, Query
from pydantic import BaseModel
from typing import Optional, List, Dict, Any
from services.database import (
save_custom_pattern, get_custom_patterns, delete_custom_pattern, toggle_pattern_active,
get_config, get_calibration_summary,
)
from services.geo_analyzer import PATTERN_TAXONOMY
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/patterns", tags=["patterns"])
class PatternRequest(BaseModel):
id: Optional[str] = None
name: str
description: str
triggers: List[str]
keywords: List[str]
historical_instances: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]] = []
suggested_trades: Optional[List[Dict[str, Any]]] = []
asset_class: str
expected_move_pct: float
probability: float
horizon_days: int
ai_quality_score: Optional[int] = None
ai_evaluation: Optional[Dict[str, Any]] = None
source: Optional[str] = "custom"
counter_thesis: Optional[str] = None
invalidation_trigger: Optional[str] = None
invalidation_probability: Optional[float] = None
@router.get("/all")
def list_all():
"""Return all active patterns from DB (builtin + custom)."""
return get_custom_patterns()
@router.get("/builtin")
def list_builtin():
return [p for p in get_custom_patterns() if p.get("source") == "builtin"]
@router.get("/custom")
def list_custom():
return [p for p in get_custom_patterns() if p.get("source") != "builtin"]
@router.post("/custom")
def create_pattern(req: PatternRequest):
data = req.model_dump()
data["source"] = "custom"
pat_id = save_custom_pattern(data)
return {"id": pat_id, "status": "saved"}
@router.put("/custom/{pat_id}")
def update_pattern(pat_id: str, req: PatternRequest):
data = req.model_dump()
data["id"] = pat_id
save_custom_pattern(data)
return {"id": pat_id, "status": "updated"}
class PatternPatchRequest(BaseModel):
name: Optional[str] = None
description: Optional[str] = None
category: Optional[str] = None
signal_direction: Optional[str] = None
regime_tag: Optional[str] = None
@router.patch("/custom/{pat_id}")
def patch_pattern(pat_id: str, req: PatternPatchRequest):
"""Partial update — only provided fields are changed."""
from services.database import get_conn
conn = get_conn()
if not conn.execute("SELECT id FROM custom_patterns WHERE id=?", (pat_id,)).fetchone():
conn.close()
raise HTTPException(404, "Pattern not found")
updates = {k: v for k, v in req.model_dump().items() if v is not None}
if updates:
set_clause = ", ".join(f"{k}=?" for k in updates)
conn.execute(
f"UPDATE custom_patterns SET {set_clause}, updated_at=datetime('now') WHERE id=?",
list(updates.values()) + [pat_id],
)
conn.commit()
conn.close()
return {"id": pat_id, "status": "updated", "fields": list(updates.keys())}
@router.delete("/purge-all")
def purge_all_patterns():
"""Delete ALL custom/backtested patterns from the pattern library."""
from services.database import get_conn
conn = get_conn()
conn.execute("DELETE FROM custom_patterns WHERE source != 'builtin'")
n = conn.total_changes
conn.commit()
conn.close()
return {"deleted": n}
@router.delete("/custom/{pat_id}")
def delete_pattern(pat_id: str):
delete_custom_pattern(pat_id)
return {"status": "deleted"}
@router.put("/toggle/{pat_id}")
def toggle_pattern(pat_id: str):
"""Enable or disable a pattern (works for builtin and custom)."""
new_state = toggle_pattern_active(pat_id)
return {"id": pat_id, "is_active": new_state}
@router.get("/taxonomy")
def get_taxonomy():
"""Return the taxonomy tree + all patterns (frontend builds node→pattern mapping)."""
patterns = get_custom_patterns()
return {"tree": PATTERN_TAXONOMY, "patterns": patterns}
@router.get("/by-instrument")
def get_by_instrument(ticker: str = Query(..., description="Ticker / underlying to search")):
"""Return all patterns that have a suggested_trade matching the given ticker."""
ticker_lower = ticker.strip().lower()
result = []
for p in get_custom_patterns():
trades = p.get("suggested_trades") or []
matching = [
t for t in trades
if ticker_lower in (t.get("underlying") or "").lower()
]
if matching:
result.append({**p, "matching_trades": matching})
return result
# ── Calibration summary ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@router.get("/calibration")
def get_calibration():
"""Per-pattern calibration state: AI estimate vs observed blend."""
return get_calibration_summary()
# ── Find Similar ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
class FindSimilarRequest(BaseModel):
pattern_id: str
@router.post("/find-similar")
async def find_similar_pattern(req: FindSimilarRequest):
"""Ask GPT-4o-mini if a library pattern duplicates or counter-scenarios another."""
from openai import AsyncOpenAI
openai_key = get_config("openai_api_key") or ""
if not openai_key:
raise HTTPException(400, "OpenAI API key not configured")
library = get_custom_patterns()
source = next((p for p in library if p["id"] == req.pattern_id), None)
if not source:
raise HTTPException(404, "Pattern not found")
others = [p for p in library if p["id"] != req.pattern_id]
if not others:
return {
"recommendation": "new_pattern", "match_id": None, "match_name": None,
"confidence": 100, "reasoning": "No other patterns in library to compare.",
"suggested_regime_tag": source.get("regime_tag") or source.get("category", ""),
}
def _compact(p: dict) -> dict:
trades = p.get("suggested_trades") or []
underlying = trades[0].get("underlying", "") if trades else ""
return {
"id": p["id"],
"name": p["name"],
"regime_tag": p.get("regime_tag") or "",
"category": p.get("category") or "",
"underlying": underlying,
"signal_direction": p.get("signal_direction") or "",
"description": (p.get("description") or "")[:150],
}
trades_src = source.get("suggested_trades") or []
underlying_src = trades_src[0].get("underlying", "") if trades_src else ""
prompt = f"""You are a quantitative macro pattern analyst. Determine if this library pattern duplicates or counter-scenarios another existing pattern.
## SOURCE PATTERN
Name: {source.get('name')}
Category: {source.get('category')}
Description: {source.get('description')}
Underlying: {underlying_src}
Signal direction: {source.get('signal_direction')}
Regime tag: {source.get('regime_tag') or 'none'}
## EXISTING LIBRARY PATTERNS (excluding source)
{json.dumps([_compact(p) for p in others], ensure_ascii=False)}
## DECISION RULES
**merge_as_instance**: Same macro REGIME + same INSTRUMENT + same DIRECTION. The source pattern is a redundant instance of an existing one — safe to merge.
**counter_scenario**: Same macro REGIME + same INSTRUMENT + OPPOSITE DIRECTION. Both are valid distinct patterns — do NOT merge, just mark the relationship.
**new_pattern**: Different regime, instrument, or no meaningful structural match. Keep as-is.
CRITICAL: Never merge opposite directions — use counter_scenario instead.
Suggest a short generic regime_tag (2-5 words) capturing the macro theme.
Return ONLY valid JSON:
{{
"recommendation": "merge_as_instance" | "counter_scenario" | "new_pattern",
"match_id": "matched pattern id or null",
"match_name": "matched pattern name or null",
"confidence": 0-100,
"reasoning": "2-3 sentences explaining the decision",
"suggested_regime_tag": "short generic label"
}}"""
client = AsyncOpenAI(api_key=openai_key)
resp = await client.chat.completions.create(
model="gpt-4o-mini",
messages=[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
temperature=0.1,
response_format={"type": "json_object"},
)
raw = resp.choices[0].message.content or "{}"
try:
return json.loads(raw)
except Exception:
raise HTTPException(500, f"AI returned non-JSON: {raw[:200]}")
# ── Merge Patterns ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
class MergeRequest(BaseModel):
keep_id: str
discard_id: str
@router.post("/merge")
def merge_patterns(req: MergeRequest):
"""Merge discard_id into keep_id.
- Migrates all child-table rows (scores, trades, traces, logs, embeddings)
- Merges historical_instances (union, dedup by date+event)
- Sums backtest_hits + backtest_runs_count
- Deletes the discarded pattern
"""
from services.database import get_conn
if req.keep_id == req.discard_id:
raise HTTPException(400, "keep_id and discard_id must be different")
conn = get_conn()
try:
keep_row = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM custom_patterns WHERE id=?", (req.keep_id,)).fetchone()
discard_row = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM custom_patterns WHERE id=?", (req.discard_id,)).fetchone()
if not keep_row:
raise HTTPException(404, f"Pattern {req.keep_id} not found")
if not discard_row:
raise HTTPException(404, f"Pattern {req.discard_id} not found")
keep = dict(keep_row)
discard = dict(discard_row)
# ── Merge historical_instances ────────────────────────────────────────
def _load_instances(raw) -> list:
if not raw:
return []
try:
v = json.loads(raw)
return v if isinstance(v, list) else []
except Exception:
return []
keep_inst = _load_instances(keep.get("historical_instances"))
discard_inst = _load_instances(discard.get("historical_instances"))
seen = {(i.get("date", ""), i.get("event", "")) for i in keep_inst}
for inst in discard_inst:
key = (inst.get("date", ""), inst.get("event", ""))
if key not in seen:
keep_inst.append(inst)
seen.add(key)
keep_inst.sort(key=lambda x: x.get("date", ""), reverse=True)
# ── Merge numeric counters ────────────────────────────────────────────
merged_hits = (keep.get("backtest_hits") or 0) + (discard.get("backtest_hits") or 0)
merged_runs = (keep.get("backtest_runs_count") or 0) + (discard.get("backtest_runs_count") or 0)
# Prefer keep's regime_tag; fall back to discard's
merged_regime = keep.get("regime_tag") or discard.get("regime_tag")
# ── Remap child tables ────────────────────────────────────────────────
_CHILD_TABLES = [
"pattern_score_history",
"trade_entry_prices",
"ai_reasoning_traces",
"ai_call_logs",
"skipped_trades",
]
for tbl in _CHILD_TABLES:
try:
conn.execute(
f"UPDATE {tbl} SET pattern_id=? WHERE pattern_id=?",
(req.keep_id, req.discard_id),
)
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"[merge] {tbl} remap failed (may not exist): {e}")
# pattern_embeddings: unique constraint on pattern_id — delete discard's embedding
# (keep's embedding stays; it'll be regenerated on next cycle if needed)
try:
conn.execute("DELETE FROM pattern_embeddings WHERE pattern_id=?", (req.discard_id,))
except Exception:
pass
# ── Update keep pattern ───────────────────────────────────────────────
conn.execute(
"""UPDATE custom_patterns SET
historical_instances=?,
backtest_hits=?,
backtest_runs_count=?,
regime_tag=?,
updated_at=datetime('now')
WHERE id=?""",
(
json.dumps(keep_inst, ensure_ascii=False),
merged_hits,
merged_runs,
merged_regime,
req.keep_id,
),
)
# ── Delete discarded pattern ──────────────────────────────────────────
conn.execute("DELETE FROM custom_patterns WHERE id=?", (req.discard_id,))
conn.commit()
logger.info(f"[Merge] Kept {req.keep_id}, discarded {req.discard_id}{len(keep_inst)} instances, {merged_hits}/{merged_runs} backtest hits")
updated = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM custom_patterns WHERE id=?", (req.keep_id,)).fetchone()
return {"status": "merged", "kept_id": req.keep_id, "discarded_id": req.discard_id,
"merged_instances": len(keep_inst), "pattern": dict(updated)}
finally:
conn.close()