Backend: - eco_calendar_bootstrap.py: 75 historical events 2020-2026 (FOMC, NFP, CPI, GDP, ISM, BOJ, ECB, BOE) with expected_value/actual_value/ surprise_pct/unit/absorption_pct fields - database.py: 5 new columns on market_events (expected_value, actual_value, surprise_pct, unit, sub_type) + updated save_market_event - timeline.py: POST /api/timeline/bootstrap-eco endpoint - instrument_service.py: _get_relevant_events now returns eco fields - instruments.json: type field on all 90 drivers across 20 instruments (event_calendar | report | geopolitical | fundamental | sentiment | technical) Frontend (InstrumentDashboard): - EventTimelineStrip: vertical cursor line tracking crosshair selectedDate - EventsCard: active-event highlight at hovered date + expected/actual/ surprise_pct display + absorption progress bar - DriversPanel: type selector dropdown per driver - DriverTypeBadge: colored micro-badge on driver labels in strip Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
455 lines
37 KiB
JSON
455 lines
37 KiB
JSON
{
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"instruments": [
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{
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"id": "SPY",
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"name": "S&P 500 ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "SPY",
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"ib_ticker": "SPY",
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"exchange": "CBOE",
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"category": "equity_index",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "US large-cap equity benchmark — 500 plus grandes capitalisations américaines",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "fed_policy", "label": "Fed Policy", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["FOMC","Fed","Federal Reserve","Powell","taux directeur","pivot","dot plot","QT","QE","taux Fed"]},
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{"key": "earnings_growth", "label": "Earnings Growth", "type": "report", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["Earnings","EPS","bénéfices","résultats","Earnings Season","reporting","profits"]},
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{"key": "real_rates", "label": "Real Rates", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["taux réels","TIPS","real yields","breakeven","inflation","CPI","PCE"]},
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{"key": "liquidity", "label": "Global Liquidity", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["liquidité","liquidity","QE","QT","bilan Fed","repo","M2","conditions financières"]},
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{"key": "vix", "label": "VIX / Fear", "type": "sentiment", "weight": 0.6, "keywords": ["VIX","volatilité","vol spike","hedging","protection","skew","put","peur","fear"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["Risk-On Bull", "Risk-Off Bear", "Stagflation", "Rate Shock", "Recovery"],
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"event_keywords": ["FOMC","CPI","NFP","GDP","Earnings Season","Fed Chair","VIX"],
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"related_assets": ["SPX","SPY","QQQ","ES"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["QQQ","TLT","HYG","VXX"],
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"ai_context": "SPY tracks the S&P 500. Bullish: dovish Fed, strong earnings, liquidity expansion. Bearish: rate hikes, recession, credit events. Watch: VIX, HYG spreads, FOMC."
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},
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{
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"id": "QQQ",
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"name": "Nasdaq 100 ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "QQQ",
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"ib_ticker": "QQQ",
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"exchange": "NASDAQ",
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"category": "equity_index",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "US large-cap tech and growth benchmark — 100 plus grandes valeurs Nasdaq",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "real_rates", "label": "Real Rates", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["taux réels","TIPS","real yields","FOMC","Fed","CPI","breakeven"]},
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{"key": "ai_capex", "label": "AI Capex", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["IA","AI","Nvidia","Microsoft","capex tech","data center","GPU","intelligence artificielle","ChatGPT"]},
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{"key": "megacaps", "label": "Mégacaps GAFAM", "type": "report", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["GAFAM","Apple","Meta","Alphabet","Amazon","Microsoft","earnings tech","Big Tech","résultats tech"]},
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{"key": "growth", "label": "Croissance US", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["croissance","GDP","récession","NFP","emploi","PMI","croissance économique"]},
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{"key": "dollar", "label": "Dollar Index", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.5, "keywords": ["Dollar","DXY","dollar index","EUR/USD","devise"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["Tech Bull (AI-Driven)", "Tech Bear", "Rate Compression", "Earnings Crash", "Recovery"],
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"event_keywords": ["FOMC","Big Tech Earnings","CPI","AI","Rate","NVDA","AAPL"],
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"related_assets": ["QQQ","NDX","NQ"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["SPY","TLT","NVDA","AAPL"],
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"ai_context": "QQQ tracks Nasdaq 100. Bullish: dovish Fed, AI capex boom, Big Tech earnings. Bearish: rate hikes, earnings misses, AI regulation. Watch: real yields, mega-cap earnings."
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},
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{
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"id": "IWM",
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"name": "Russell 2000 ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "IWM",
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"ib_ticker": "IWM",
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"exchange": "NYSE",
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"category": "equity_index",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "US small-cap equity benchmark — 2000 petites capitalisations américaines",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "gdp_growth", "label": "Croissance US", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["GDP","PIB","croissance US","NFP","emploi","récession","PMI","domestic growth"]},
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{"key": "credit", "label": "Crédit & Spreads", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["crédit","credit","HY","high yield","spreads","LBO","conditions de crédit","credit crunch"]},
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{"key": "regional_banks", "label": "Banques Régionales","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["banques régionales","SVB","FDIC","banque","banking","bank failure","crédit bancaire"]},
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{"key": "dollar", "label": "Dollar Index", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.6, "keywords": ["Dollar","DXY","dollar fort","USD strength"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["Small Cap Expansion", "Credit Crunch Squeeze", "Risk-Off", "Recovery", "Neutral"],
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"event_keywords": ["FOMC","Credit","GDP","NFP","Rates","Regional Banks"],
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"related_assets": ["IWM","RTY","RUT"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["SPY","HYG","TLT"],
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"ai_context": "IWM tracks Russell 2000. Heavily credit-sensitive. Bullish: credit loosening, domestic growth. Bearish: credit tightening, recession, dollar strength. Watch: HYG spreads, regional bank health."
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},
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{
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"id": "EEM",
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"name": "Emerging Markets ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "EEM",
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"ib_ticker": "EEM",
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"exchange": "NYSE",
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"category": "equity_intl",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "MSCI Emerging Markets — grandes capitalisations des marchés émergents",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "dollar_index", "label": "Dollar Index", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["Dollar","DXY","USD","dollar index","dollar fort","faible dollar"]},
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{"key": "china_growth", "label": "Chine / PBoC", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["China","Chine","PBOC","PBoC","PIB chinois","Xi","immobilier chinois","stimulus Chine","relance Chine"]},
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{"key": "em_flows", "label": "Flux EM", "type": "sentiment", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["EM","émergents","emerging","flows","flux","capitaux émergents"]},
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{"key": "commodities", "label": "Matières Premières","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["matières premières","commodities","minerai","pétrole","métaux","commodité"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["EM Growth Rally", "Dollar Squeeze", "China Risk-Off", "Commodity Lift", "Neutral"],
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"event_keywords": ["China GDP","Dollar","EM","PBOC","Commodities","stimulus Chine"],
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"related_assets": ["EEM","EM","CNY","China"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["GLD","USO","EURUSD=X"],
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"ai_context": "EEM tracks MSCI Emerging Markets. Bullish: PBOC stimulus, commodities rally, weak USD. Bearish: Fed tightening, China slowdown, trade tensions. Watch: USDCNY, China PMI, EM bond flows."
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},
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{
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"id": "EFA",
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"name": "MSCI EAFE ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "EFA",
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"ib_ticker": "EFA",
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"exchange": "NYSE",
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"category": "equity_intl",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "MSCI EAFE — Europe, Australasie, Extrême-Orient (hors US/Canada)",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "ecb_policy", "label": "BCE / ECB", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["BCE","ECB","Lagarde","taux BCE","zone euro","politique BCE","ECB rate"]},
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{"key": "energy", "label": "Énergie Europe", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["énergie","gaz européen","pétrole","LNG","crisis énergétique","energy","energy price"]},
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{"key": "eurusd", "label": "EUR/USD", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["EUR/USD","euro dollar","eurusd","parité euro","euro fort","euro faible"]},
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{"key": "european_growth", "label": "Croissance Européenne", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["Europe","zone euro","Allemagne","PIB européen","PMI Europe","récession Europe","croissance européenne"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["Global Risk-On", "USD Strength Drag", "Europe Recession", "Recovery", "Neutral"],
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"event_keywords": ["ECB","EU GDP","Europe","Germany","BOJ","Japan","EUR"],
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"related_assets": ["EFA","EAFE","EUR","EZU","SX5E"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["EURUSD=X","EEM","TLT"],
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"ai_context": "EFA tracks EAFE (Europe, Japan, Australia). Bullish: EUR/JPY strength, ECB/BOJ dovishness, global reflation. Bearish: USD strength, European recession, geopolitical disruption."
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},
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{
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"id": "GLD",
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"name": "Gold ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "GLD",
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"ib_ticker": "GLD",
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"exchange": "NYSE",
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"category": "metal",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "SPDR Gold Shares — proxy physique de l'or",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [50, 100, 200], "bollinger_period": 50, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "real_rates_us", "label": "Taux Réels US", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.95, "keywords": ["taux réels","TIPS","real yields","Fed","FOMC","CPI","breakeven","inflation réelle"]},
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{"key": "dollar_index", "label": "Dollar Index", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["Dollar","DXY","dollar index","USD","faible dollar","dollar fort"]},
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{"key": "inflation_expectations", "label": "Anticipations Inflation", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["inflation","CPI","PCE","breakeven","attentes d'inflation","stagflation"]},
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{"key": "geopolitical_risk", "label": "Risque Géopolitique", "type": "geopolitical", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["géopolitique","guerre","Moyen-Orient","Iran","Russie","conflit","Chine","tension","crise","war"]},
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{"key": "cb_buying", "label": "Achats Banques Centrales","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.5, "keywords": ["banque centrale","central bank","réserves","gold reserves","achats d'or","PBOC gold","dédollarisation"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["Real Rates Falling", "Safe Haven Rally", "Inflation Hedge", "Dollar Weakness", "Range"],
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"event_keywords": ["CPI","Fed","FOMC","Dollar","Geopolitical","Iran","Gold","guerre","inflation"],
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"related_assets": ["GLD","GC","Gold","XAU"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["TLT","SLV","EURUSD=X","USDJPY=X"],
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"ai_context": "GLD tracks physical gold. Primary driver: real rates (inverse). Bullish: falling real yields, dollar weakness, CB buying, geopolitical crises. Bearish: rising real yields, strong dollar."
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},
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{
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"id": "SLV",
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"name": "Silver ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "SLV",
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"ib_ticker": "SLV",
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"exchange": "NYSE",
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"category": "metal",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "iShares Silver Trust — proxy physique de l'argent métal",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "industrial_demand", "label": "Demande Industrielle", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["industrie","manufacturing","PMI","production industrielle","fabrique","industry"]},
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{"key": "real_rates", "label": "Taux Réels", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["taux réels","TIPS","Fed","FOMC","real yields"]},
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{"key": "dollar", "label": "Dollar Index", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["Dollar","DXY","USD"]},
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{"key": "solar_ev_demand", "label": "Solaire / Véhicule EV","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.65, "keywords": ["solaire","solar","EV","véhicule électrique","énergie verte","green energy","photovoltaïque","battery"]},
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{"key": "gold_ratio", "label": "Ratio Or/Argent", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.6, "keywords": ["Gold","or","ratio Or/Argent","gold silver","argent","silver"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["Industrial Demand", "Safe Haven Flow", "Dollar Weakness", "Risk-Off", "Range"],
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"event_keywords": ["Manufacturing","PMI","CPI","Dollar","Silver","EV","Solar","taux réels"],
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"related_assets": ["SLV","SI","Silver"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["GLD","USO","EEM"],
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"ai_context": "SLV tracks silver. Dual nature: monetary (like gold) + industrial (solar, EVs). Bullish: green energy demand, falling real rates, weak dollar. Bearish: manufacturing slowdown, strong dollar."
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},
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{
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"id": "USO",
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"name": "WTI Oil ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "USO",
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"ib_ticker": "USO",
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"exchange": "NYSE",
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"category": "energy",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "United States Oil Fund — proxy WTI (pétrole brut américain)",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "opec_policy", "label": "OPEP+ / Production", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["OPEC","OPEP","production pétrolière","quotas","Arabie Saoudite","Saudi","réduction","coupes","OPEC meeting"]},
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{"key": "inventories", "label": "Stocks EIA", "type": "report", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["EIA","stocks pétroliers","inventaires","inventories","crude stocks","rapport EIA","crude supply"]},
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{"key": "geopolitical_risk","label": "Risque Géopolitique","type": "geopolitical", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["géopolitique","Moyen-Orient","Iran","Russie","conflit","guerre","war","Golfe Persique","tension"]},
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{"key": "global_demand", "label": "Demande Mondiale", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["demande mondiale","China demand","IEA","croissance mondiale","global demand","reprise économique"]},
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{"key": "dollar", "label": "Dollar Index", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["Dollar","DXY","USD"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["Supply Shock", "Demand Recovery", "Inventory Draw", "Geopolitical Premium", "Neutral"],
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"event_keywords": ["OPEC","EIA","Inventories","Brent","WTI","Oil","Middle East","Saudi"],
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"related_assets": ["USO","CL","WTI","Oil","Brent"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["XOM","EEM","GLD","UNG"],
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"ai_context": "USO tracks WTI crude. Bullish: OPEC+ cuts, geopolitical disruption, demand recovery, weak dollar. Bearish: OPEC output increases, demand recession, inventory builds."
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},
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{
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"id": "UNG",
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"name": "Natural Gas ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "UNG",
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"ib_ticker": "UNG",
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"exchange": "NYSE",
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"category": "energy",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "United States Natural Gas Fund — proxy Henry Hub (gaz naturel)",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "weather_seasonality", "label": "Météo / Saisonnalité","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["météo","weather","hiver","été","froid","chaleur","El Niño","La Niña","saison","vague de froid","heat wave"]},
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{"key": "storage", "label": "Stockage EIA Gaz", "type": "report", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["EIA Gas Storage","stockage gaz","gas storage","inventaires gaz","rapport stockage gaz"]},
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{"key": "lng_exports", "label": "Exports LNG", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["LNG","GNL","exportations gaz","terminal LNG","gazoduc","liquefied natural gas"]},
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{"key": "production", "label": "Production US", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["production gaz","shale gas","fracking","puits gaz","Marcellus","Appalachian","US gas output"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["Winter Storage Fill", "Supply Glut", "Demand Surge", "Export LNG Lift", "Neutral"],
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"event_keywords": ["EIA Gas Storage","LNG","Gas","Natural Gas","Weather","stockage gaz"],
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"related_assets": ["UNG","NG","Natgas"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["USO","XOM"],
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"ai_context": "UNG tracks natural gas (Henry Hub). Highly seasonal and weather-driven. Bullish: cold winter, low storage, LNG export growth. Bearish: warm weather, record storage builds."
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},
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{
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"id": "TLT",
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"name": "US 20Y Treasury ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "TLT",
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"ib_ticker": "TLT",
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"exchange": "NASDAQ",
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"category": "bond",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "iShares 20+ Year Treasury — proxy du rendement US 10Y/30Y",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "fed_path", "label": "Trajectoire Fed", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["FOMC","Fed","taux directeur","Fed hike","Fed cut","pivot","dot plot","Federal Reserve"]},
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{"key": "inflation_expectations", "label": "Inflation / CPI", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["CPI","PCE","inflation","déflation","attentes","breakeven","inflation US"]},
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{"key": "growth", "label": "Croissance / NFP", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["GDP","NFP","récession","croissance","emploi","PMI","chômage","payrolls"]},
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{"key": "deficit_supply", "label": "Déficit / Offre Treasury","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["déficit","dette publique","Treasury auction","enchères","budget","fiscal","dette fédérale"]},
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{"key": "risk_aversion", "label": "Fuite Vers Qualité", "type": "sentiment", "weight": 0.65, "keywords": ["risk-off","crise","fuite vers la qualité","safe haven","vol spike","contagion","crise bancaire"]}
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],
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"regime_labels": ["Safe Haven Bid", "Rate Shock Selloff", "QE Expectations", "Inflation Selloff", "Range"],
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"event_keywords": ["FOMC","CPI","Fed","Treasury","Yield","Deficit","NFP"],
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"related_assets": ["TLT","TNX","UST","Bonds"],
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"correlation_instruments": ["SPY","GLD","HYG","USDJPY=X"],
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"ai_context": "TLT tracks 20Y US Treasuries. Bullish: recession fears, Fed cuts, falling inflation, risk-off. Bearish: rising inflation, Fed hikes, fiscal deficit expansion, strong growth."
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},
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{
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"id": "HYG",
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"name": "High Yield Bond ETF",
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"yf_ticker": "HYG",
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"ib_ticker": "HYG",
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"exchange": "NYSE",
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"category": "credit",
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"currency": "USD",
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"description": "iShares iBoxx USD High Yield Corporate Bond — baromètre du crédit HY",
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"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
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"drivers": [
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{"key": "default_rate", "label": "Taux de Défaut", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["défauts","default","faillite","bankruptcy","spreads HY","taux de défaut","HY spreads"]},
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{"key": "growth", "label": "Croissance Économique", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["GDP","récession","croissance","PMI","emploi","payrolls","activité"]},
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{"key": "liquidity", "label": "Conditions de Liquidité","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["liquidité","crédit","QT","QE","conditions financières","FCO","financial conditions"]},
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{"key": "risk_appetite", "label": "Appétit pour le Risque", "type": "sentiment", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["risk-on","risk-off","appétit pour le risque","flux crédit","sentiment marché"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["Credit Expansion", "Credit Crunch", "Spread Compression", "Recession Fear", "Neutral"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["Credit","Default","GDP","FOMC","Recession","HY","spreads"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["HYG","LQD","Credit","HY"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["SPY","IWM","TLT"],
|
|
"ai_context": "HYG tracks US high-yield corporate bonds. Key credit stress barometer. Bullish: strong growth, low defaults, liquidity expansion. Bearish: recession, default cycle, credit crunch."
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"id": "EURUSD=X",
|
|
"name": "EUR/USD",
|
|
"yf_ticker": "EURUSD=X",
|
|
"ib_ticker": "EUR.USD",
|
|
"exchange": "FX",
|
|
"category": "fx",
|
|
"currency": "USD",
|
|
"description": "Taux spot Euro / Dollar américain",
|
|
"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": false },
|
|
"drivers": [
|
|
{"key": "fed_ecb_differential", "label": "Différentiel Fed/BCE", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.95, "keywords": ["BCE","ECB","Fed","FOMC","différentiel","taux directeurs","politique monétaire","rate differential"]},
|
|
{"key": "rate_differential_2y", "label": "Taux 2 ans US-EUR", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["taux 2 ans","Bund 2Y","Treasury 2Y","swap","différentiel de taux","2Y spread"]},
|
|
{"key": "inflation_differential", "label": "Inflation US vs EUR", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["CPI","inflation","PCE","HICP","zone euro","inflation différentiel"]},
|
|
{"key": "dxy", "label": "Dollar Index DXY", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["Dollar","DXY","dollar index","USD","dollar fort","faible dollar"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["EUR Strength (ECB Hawkish)", "USD Strength (Fed Hawkish)", "Risk-On EUR Rally", "Risk-Off USD Safe", "Range"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["ECB","FOMC","CPI","EUR","Dollar","Fed","Eurozone","BCE"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["EUR","USD","EURUSD","6E"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["GLD","EFA","TLT"],
|
|
"ai_context": "EUR/USD driven by Fed-ECB rate differential. EUR bullish: ECB hawkishness, European growth surprise, risk-on. EUR bearish: Fed hawkishness, European recession, risk-off USD demand."
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"id": "USDJPY=X",
|
|
"name": "USD/JPY",
|
|
"yf_ticker": "USDJPY=X",
|
|
"ib_ticker": "USD.JPY",
|
|
"exchange": "FX",
|
|
"category": "fx",
|
|
"currency": "JPY",
|
|
"description": "Taux spot Dollar américain / Yen japonais",
|
|
"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": false },
|
|
"drivers": [
|
|
{"key": "boj_policy", "label": "BOJ Policy", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.95, "keywords": ["BOJ","Banque du Japon","Ueda","YCC","yield curve control","politique monétaire japonaise","BOJ rate","JGB"]},
|
|
{"key": "rate_diff_us_jp","label": "Différentiel US-JP","type": "technical", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["différentiel US-Japon","JGB","UST","rendements US-JP","US Japan spread","10Y spread"]},
|
|
{"key": "fed_policy", "label": "Fed Policy", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["Fed","FOMC","taux directeur US","hawkish Fed","Fed hike","Federal Reserve"]},
|
|
{"key": "risk_appetite", "label": "Risk Appetite / Carry","type": "sentiment", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["risk-off","carry trade","yen safe haven","crise","carry unwind","yen refuge"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["Carry Trade On", "BOJ Tightening Surprise", "Risk-Off JPY Safe Haven", "Dollar Bull", "YCC Adjustment"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["BOJ","Fed","Japan","YCC","Carry","JPY","Yen","taux Japon"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["JPY","USDJPY","6J","Yen"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["TLT","GLD","VXX"],
|
|
"ai_context": "USD/JPY driven by US-Japan rate differential and BOJ yield curve control. USD bullish: Fed hikes, BOJ ultra-dovish. JPY bullish: BOJ tightening surprise, risk-off. Watch: BOJ meetings, 10Y UST-JGB spread."
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"id": "GBPUSD=X",
|
|
"name": "GBP/USD",
|
|
"yf_ticker": "GBPUSD=X",
|
|
"ib_ticker": "GBP.USD",
|
|
"exchange": "FX",
|
|
"category": "fx",
|
|
"currency": "USD",
|
|
"description": "Taux spot Livre Sterling / Dollar américain",
|
|
"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": false },
|
|
"drivers": [
|
|
{"key": "boe_policy", "label": "BOE Policy", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["BOE","Bank of England","Bailey","taux UK","Royaume-Uni","Angleterre","UK rate","BOE meeting"]},
|
|
{"key": "uk_inflation", "label": "Inflation UK", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["inflation UK","CPI UK","CPIH","RPI","inflation Angleterre"]},
|
|
{"key": "uk_growth", "label": "Croissance UK", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["GDP UK","PMI UK","croissance UK","récession UK","UK economy","UK GDP"]},
|
|
{"key": "political_risk","label": "Risque Politique UK","type": "geopolitical", "weight": 0.65, "keywords": ["politique UK","budget UK","Labour","Tories","fiscal UK","gilt","UK budget","Reeves"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["GBP Strength (BOE Hawkish)", "USD Dominance", "Political Risk GBP", "UK Recession Pressure", "Range"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["BOE","Fed","UK","Britain","GBP","Pound","UK CPI"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["GBP","GBPUSD","6B","Pound"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["EURUSD=X","TLT"],
|
|
"ai_context": "GBP/USD reflects BOE vs Fed differential plus UK political risk premium. GBP bullish: BOE hawkishness, strong UK data, political stability. GBP bearish: UK recession, political uncertainty."
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"id": "VXX",
|
|
"name": "VIX Tracker",
|
|
"yf_ticker": "VXX",
|
|
"ib_ticker": "VXX",
|
|
"exchange": "CBOE",
|
|
"category": "volatility",
|
|
"currency": "USD",
|
|
"description": "iPath VIX Short-Term Futures ETN — proxy de la peur et de la volatilité implicite",
|
|
"chart": { "ma_periods": [10, 20, 50], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
|
|
"drivers": [
|
|
{"key": "market_stress", "label": "Stress de Marché", "type": "geopolitical", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["krach","crash","crise","choc","panic","volatilité","vol spike","selloff","capitulation","contagion"]},
|
|
{"key": "risk_appetite", "label": "Peur / Risk-Off", "type": "sentiment", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["risk-off","risk-on","sentiment","fear","peur","greed","appétit risque","VIX spike"]},
|
|
{"key": "options_demand", "label": "Demande Options (Puts)", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["options","puts","hedging","protection","skew","IV","couverture","implied vol","volatilité implicite"]},
|
|
{"key": "macro_uncertainty", "label": "Incertitude Macro", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["FOMC","surprise","incertitude","géopolitique","macro","inflation choc","data surprise"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["Low Vol Complacency", "Vol Spike Crisis", "Vol Expansion", "Vol Compression", "Neutral"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["VIX","Volatility","Crisis","FOMC","Market Stress","peur","vol spike"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["VXX","VIX","UVXY","SVXY"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["SPY","TLT","GLD"],
|
|
"ai_context": "VXX tracks short-term VIX futures. Spikes on: market crashes, geopolitical shocks, FOMC surprises. Mean-reverts due to futures roll decay. Watch: VIX term structure, SPX put skew."
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"id": "AAPL",
|
|
"name": "Apple Inc",
|
|
"yf_ticker": "AAPL",
|
|
"ib_ticker": "AAPL",
|
|
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
|
|
"category": "stock",
|
|
"currency": "USD",
|
|
"description": "Apple Inc. — ecosystème consommateur tech et services",
|
|
"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
|
|
"drivers": [
|
|
{"key": "iphone_cycle", "label": "Cycle iPhone", "type": "report", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["iPhone","Apple","AAPL earnings","supercycle","launch","iPhone 16","hardware"]},
|
|
{"key": "china_sales", "label": "Ventes Chine", "type": "geopolitical", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["Chine","China","Huawei","ban Apple","restrictions Apple","China sales","marché chinois"]},
|
|
{"key": "ai_integration","label": "Apple Intelligence / IA","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["Apple Intelligence","AI","IA","Siri","machine learning","IA Apple","generative AI"]},
|
|
{"key": "margins", "label": "Services & Marges", "type": "report", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["services","App Store","iCloud","marge Apple","services revenue","abonnements"]},
|
|
{"key": "fed_policy", "label": "Valorisation / Taux", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.65, "keywords": ["Fed","taux","valorisation","taux d'intérêt","discount rate"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["Growth Bull", "Rate Squeeze", "Earnings Beat", "Tech Selloff", "Neutral"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["Apple Earnings","iPhone","Services","China","Fed","AI","AAPL"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["AAPL","Apple"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["QQQ","NVDA","SPY"],
|
|
"ai_context": "AAPL is world's largest market cap. Key drivers: iPhone cycle, Services revenue growth, China exposure, AI integration. Watch: quarterly earnings, China sales, Apple Intelligence traction."
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"id": "NVDA",
|
|
"name": "NVIDIA Corp",
|
|
"yf_ticker": "NVDA",
|
|
"ib_ticker": "NVDA",
|
|
"exchange": "NASDAQ",
|
|
"category": "stock",
|
|
"currency": "USD",
|
|
"description": "NVIDIA Corporation — leader mondial des GPU pour IA et data centers",
|
|
"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
|
|
"drivers": [
|
|
{"key": "ai_capex_cycle", "label": "Capex IA / Hyperscalers","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.95, "keywords": ["IA","AI","data center","capex","Nvidia","GPU","H100","Blackwell","NVLink","hyperscalers","infrastructure IA"]},
|
|
{"key": "earnings_growth", "label": "Croissance Bénéfices", "type": "report", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["NVDA earnings","résultats Nvidia","revenues","data center revenue","beat","guidance"]},
|
|
{"key": "data_center_demand","label": "Demande Data Center", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["Amazon AWS","Microsoft Azure","Google Cloud","data center","cloud","computing","GPU demand"]},
|
|
{"key": "export_restrictions","label": "Restrictions Export", "type": "geopolitical", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["export control","restrictions export","Chine","China ban","BIS","CISA","H20","chip ban"]},
|
|
{"key": "rates", "label": "Taux / Valorisation", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.6, "keywords": ["taux","valorisation","growth stock","multiples","discount rate","Fed"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["AI Bull Run", "AI Hype Correction", "Earnings Catalyst", "Rate Compression", "Consolidation"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["NVIDIA Earnings","AI","Data Center","Export","GPU","NVDA","Blackwell"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["NVDA","NVIDIA","AI"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["QQQ","AAPL","SPY"],
|
|
"ai_context": "NVDA dominates AI infrastructure (H100/Blackwell GPUs). Bullish: AI capex spending, earnings beats, new GPU launches. Bearish: US-China export restrictions, AI spending slowdown."
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"id": "GS",
|
|
"name": "Goldman Sachs",
|
|
"yf_ticker": "GS",
|
|
"ib_ticker": "GS",
|
|
"exchange": "NYSE",
|
|
"category": "stock",
|
|
"currency": "USD",
|
|
"description": "The Goldman Sachs Group — banque d'investissement globale",
|
|
"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
|
|
"drivers": [
|
|
{"key": "yield_curve", "label": "Courbe des Taux", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["courbe des taux","2Y-10Y","steepening","inversion","yield curve","10Y-2Y","pente"]},
|
|
{"key": "ma_activity", "label": "M&A / Activité Deals", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["M&A","fusion-acquisition","LBO","IPO","deal","advisory","boutique","transaction"]},
|
|
{"key": "rates", "label": "Taux d'Intérêt", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["taux","Fed","intérêts","NIM","net interest margin","Fed rate","interest rates"]},
|
|
{"key": "credit_conditions","label": "Conditions de Crédit", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["crédit","spreads","conditions financières","leverage loans","credit tightening"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["Finance Bull", "Recession Fear", "Yield Curve Steepen", "M&A Boom", "Range"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["Goldman","Financials","Yield Curve","M&A","Banking","Fed","Credit"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["GS","Goldman","XLF","Financials"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["SPY","TLT","HYG"],
|
|
"ai_context": "Goldman benefits from: steep yield curve, M&A advisory boom, robust trading. Bullish: rate curve steepening, IPO/M&A surge. Bearish: yield curve inversion, recession, credit crisis."
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"id": "XOM",
|
|
"name": "ExxonMobil",
|
|
"yf_ticker": "XOM",
|
|
"ib_ticker": "XOM",
|
|
"exchange": "NYSE",
|
|
"category": "stock",
|
|
"currency": "USD",
|
|
"description": "Exxon Mobil Corporation — major pétrolier intégré mondial",
|
|
"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
|
|
"drivers": [
|
|
{"key": "oil_price", "label": "Prix du Pétrole", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.9, "keywords": ["WTI","Brent","pétrole","crude","oil price","prix pétrole","cours pétrole"]},
|
|
{"key": "global_demand", "label": "Demande Mondiale", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["demande mondiale","China demand","IEA","croissance","global demand","reprise"]},
|
|
{"key": "opec_policy", "label": "OPEP+ Production", "type": "event_calendar", "weight": 0.75, "keywords": ["OPEC","OPEP","quotas","production","Saudi","Arabie Saoudite","réduction"]},
|
|
{"key": "capex", "label": "Capex / Investissement","type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.6, "keywords": ["capex","investissement","forage","upstream","exploration","rig count"]},
|
|
{"key": "dollar", "label": "Dollar Index", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.6, "keywords": ["Dollar","DXY","USD"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["Energy Bull", "Demand Slowdown", "OPEC Benefit", "Green Transition Drag", "Range"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["Oil","OPEC","Energy","XOM","EIA","Crude","Exxon","WTI"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["XOM","Exxon","CL","Oil","Energy"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["USO","UNG","EEM"],
|
|
"ai_context": "XOM revenues highly correlated to oil/gas prices. Bullish: OPEC cuts, geopolitical supply risk, refining margins. Bearish: oil price collapse, global recession, energy transition."
|
|
},
|
|
{
|
|
"id": "BTC-USD",
|
|
"name": "Bitcoin",
|
|
"yf_ticker": "BTC-USD",
|
|
"ib_ticker": "BTC",
|
|
"exchange": "Crypto",
|
|
"category": "crypto",
|
|
"currency": "USD",
|
|
"description": "Bitcoin — premier actif décentralisé, indicateur de liquidité et Risk-On",
|
|
"chart": { "ma_periods": [20, 50, 200], "bollinger_period": 20, "bollinger_std": 2, "show_volume": true },
|
|
"drivers": [
|
|
{"key": "global_liquidity","label": "Liquidité Mondiale", "type": "fundamental", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["liquidité mondiale","M2","Fed","QE","QT","conditions financières","liquidity","money supply"]},
|
|
{"key": "etf_flows", "label": "Flux ETF Bitcoin", "type": "report", "weight": 0.85, "keywords": ["ETF Bitcoin","spot BTC ETF","BlackRock","Fidelity","flux ETF","ETF approval","IBIT","FBTC"]},
|
|
{"key": "risk_appetite", "label": "Sentiment Risk-On", "type": "sentiment", "weight": 0.8, "keywords": ["risk-on","risk-off","crypto","sentiment","appétit pour le risque","halving","cycle crypto"]},
|
|
{"key": "regulatory", "label": "Réglementation Crypto", "type": "geopolitical", "weight": 0.7, "keywords": ["réglementation crypto","SEC","CFTC","crypto ban","ETF approval","régulation","MiCA"]},
|
|
{"key": "dollar", "label": "Dollar Index", "type": "technical", "weight": 0.65, "keywords": ["Dollar","DXY","USD","dédollarisation"]}
|
|
],
|
|
"regime_labels": ["Crypto Bull (ETF Inflows)", "Risk-Off Crypto Selloff", "Liquidity Expansion", "Regulatory Fear", "Consolidation"],
|
|
"event_keywords": ["Bitcoin","BTC","Crypto","ETF","Fed","Liquidity","Regulation","halving"],
|
|
"related_assets": ["BTC","Bitcoin","Crypto"],
|
|
"correlation_instruments": ["SPY","QQQ","GLD"],
|
|
"ai_context": "Bitcoin: high-beta risk asset + emerging macro hedge. Bullish: Fed liquidity expansion, spot ETF inflows, halving cycle. Bearish: regulatory crackdown, risk-off, Fed tightening."
|
|
}
|
|
]
|
|
}
|