595 lines
22 KiB
Python
595 lines
22 KiB
Python
"""
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Instrument Models Router — graphes causaux exhaustifs par instrument.
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"""
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from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
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from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException, Query
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from pydantic import BaseModel
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router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/instrument-models", tags=["instrument-models"])
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class OverrideBody(BaseModel):
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value: float
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note: Optional[str] = ""
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class BulkOverrideItem(BaseModel):
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node_id: str
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value: float
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note: Optional[str] = ""
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class BulkOverrideBody(BaseModel):
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overrides: List[BulkOverrideItem]
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class VirtualEvent(BaseModel):
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date: str
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category: str = "unclassified"
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pips: float = 0.0
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label: str = "Event virtuel"
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absorption_days: int = 14
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rise_days: int = 1
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plateau_days: int = 0
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decay_type: str = "exp"
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class WhatIfBody(BaseModel):
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period: str = "1y"
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virtual_events: List[VirtualEvent] = []
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start_date: Optional[str] = None
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class CalibrateBody(BaseModel):
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ref_date: Optional[str] = None
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class CalibrationOverrideBody(BaseModel):
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absorption_days: int = 7
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rise_days: int = 0
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plateau_days: int = 0
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decay_type: str = "exp"
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@router.get("", response_model=List[Dict[str, Any]])
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def list_instrument_models():
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from services.database import get_conn
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from services.instrument_models import INSTRUMENT_MODELS
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conn = get_conn()
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try:
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rows = conn.execute(
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"SELECT instrument, updated_at FROM instrument_models ORDER BY instrument"
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).fetchall()
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result = []
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for r in rows:
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inst = r["instrument"]
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meta = INSTRUMENT_MODELS.get(inst, {})
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counts: dict[str, int] = {}
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for n in meta.get("nodes", []):
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t = n.get("node_type", "unknown")
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counts[t] = counts.get(t, 0) + 1
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result.append({
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"instrument": inst,
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"name": meta.get("name", inst),
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"description": meta.get("description", ""),
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"n_input_event": counts.get("input_event", 0),
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"n_input_manual": counts.get("input_manual", 0),
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"n_intermediate": counts.get("intermediate", 0),
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"updated_at": r["updated_at"],
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})
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return result
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finally:
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conn.close()
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@router.get("/{instrument}/gauge-suggestions")
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def get_gauge_suggestions(
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instrument: str,
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at_date: Optional[str] = Query(None, description="YYYY-MM-DD — snapshot le plus proche de cette date"),
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""Suggestions de valeurs depuis les gauges de marché (optionnellement à une date historique)."""
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from services.database import get_conn
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from services.gauge_sync import suggest_from_gauges, get_latest_gauges
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from services.instrument_models import INSTRUMENT_MODELS
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conn = get_conn()
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try:
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inst = instrument.upper()
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if inst not in INSTRUMENT_MODELS:
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raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail=f"Instrument {inst} non supporté")
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gauges, snap_date = get_latest_gauges(conn, at_date=at_date)
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if not gauges:
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raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail="Aucun snapshot de gauges disponible")
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suggestions = suggest_from_gauges(inst, gauges)
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return {
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"instrument": inst,
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"gauge_date": snap_date,
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"requested_date": at_date,
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"n_suggestions": len(suggestions),
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"suggestions": suggestions,
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"gauges_available": list(gauges.keys()),
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}
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finally:
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conn.close()
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@router.post("/{instrument}/apply-suggestions")
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def apply_gauge_suggestions(
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instrument: str,
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body: BulkOverrideBody,
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""Applique une liste d'overrides en bulk (depuis gauge sync ou saisie rapide)."""
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from services.database import get_conn
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from services.instrument_models import set_node_override
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conn = get_conn()
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try:
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inst = instrument.upper()
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saved = []
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for item in body.overrides:
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set_node_override(conn, inst, item.node_id, item.value, item.note or "")
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saved.append(item.node_id)
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return {"ok": True, "instrument": inst, "saved": saved, "count": len(saved)}
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finally:
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conn.close()
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@router.delete("/{instrument}/overrides")
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def clear_all_overrides(instrument: str) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""Supprime TOUTES les overrides d'un instrument (reset à zéro)."""
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from services.database import get_conn
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conn = get_conn()
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try:
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inst = instrument.upper()
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conn.execute("DELETE FROM instrument_node_overrides WHERE instrument=?", (inst,))
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conn.commit()
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return {"ok": True, "instrument": inst}
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finally:
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conn.close()
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@router.get("/{instrument}/regime")
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def get_instrument_regime(
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instrument: str,
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at_date: Optional[str] = Query(None),
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""Régime de marché courant pour cet instrument (détecté depuis events actifs)."""
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from services.database import get_conn
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from services.instrument_models import _compute_event_by_category, detect_regime
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from datetime import datetime, date as date_type
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conn = get_conn()
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try:
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try:
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ref_date = date_type.fromisoformat(at_date) if at_date else datetime.utcnow().date()
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except ValueError:
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ref_date = datetime.utcnow().date()
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ev_by_cat = _compute_event_by_category(conn, instrument.upper(), ref_date)
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return detect_regime(ev_by_cat)
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finally:
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conn.close()
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@router.get("/{instrument}/price-history")
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def get_price_history(
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instrument: str,
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period: str = Query("1y", description="5d|1mo|3mo|6mo|1y|2y"),
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refresh: bool = Query(False),
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""Cours historiques réels depuis yfinance (cache SQLite 6h)."""
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from services.database import get_conn
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from services.price_history import get_price_history as fetch_prices
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from services.instrument_models import INSTRUMENT_MODELS
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conn = get_conn()
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try:
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inst = instrument.upper()
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prices = fetch_prices(conn, inst, period, force_refresh=refresh)
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meta = INSTRUMENT_MODELS.get(inst, {})
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return {
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"instrument": inst,
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"ticker": meta.get("yf_ticker", ""),
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"period": period,
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"n_points": len(prices),
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"prices": prices,
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}
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finally:
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conn.close()
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def _ph_period(start_date: Optional[str], fallback_period: str) -> str:
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"""Compute the price-history period string needed to cover start_date → today."""
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if not start_date:
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return fallback_period
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try:
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from datetime import datetime as _dt
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days = (_dt.utcnow().date() - _dt.fromisoformat(start_date[:10]).date()).days + 10
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for p, d in [("5d", 7), ("1mo", 35), ("3mo", 95), ("6mo", 190), ("1y", 370), ("2y", 740)]:
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if days <= d:
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return p
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return "2y"
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except Exception:
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return fallback_period
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@router.get("/{instrument}/timeline")
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def get_instrument_timeline(
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instrument: str,
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period: str = Query("1y", description="5d|1mo|3mo|6mo|1y|2y"),
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start_date: Optional[str] = Query(None, description="Date de début ISO (override period)"),
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) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
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"""Simulation jour par jour de tous les nœuds du modèle sur la période."""
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from services.database import get_conn
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from services.instrument_models import simulate_timeline
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from services.price_history import get_price_history
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conn = get_conn()
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try:
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get_price_history(conn, instrument.upper(), _ph_period(start_date, period))
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data = simulate_timeline(conn, instrument.upper(), period, start_date=start_date)
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if not data:
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raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail=f"Modèle introuvable pour {instrument.upper()}")
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return data
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finally:
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conn.close()
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@router.post("/{instrument}/timeline-whatif")
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def timeline_whatif(
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instrument: str,
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body: WhatIfBody,
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) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
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"""Simulation what-if avec events virtuels injectés dans la timeline."""
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from services.database import get_conn
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from services.instrument_models import simulate_timeline
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from services.price_history import get_price_history
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conn = get_conn()
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try:
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get_price_history(conn, instrument.upper(), _ph_period(body.start_date, body.period))
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ve_list = [ve.dict() for ve in body.virtual_events]
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data = simulate_timeline(
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conn, instrument.upper(), body.period,
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virtual_events=ve_list, start_date=body.start_date
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)
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if not data:
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raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail=f"Modèle introuvable pour {instrument.upper()}")
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return data
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finally:
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conn.close()
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# ── Magnitude estimation ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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def _parse_num(s: Optional[str]) -> Optional[float]:
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if not s:
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return None
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t = str(s).strip().upper()
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try:
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if t.endswith('K'): return float(t[:-1]) * 1_000
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if t.endswith('M'): return float(t[:-1]) * 1_000_000
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if t.endswith('B'): return float(t[:-1]) * 1_000_000_000
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return float(s.replace('%', '').replace(',', ''))
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except Exception:
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return None
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def _event_scale(event_name: str) -> tuple[float, float]:
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"""(pips_per_unit, surprise_threshold) for rule-based estimation."""
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n = event_name.lower()
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if any(k in n for k in ['non-farm employment change', 'nfp']):
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return 0.0007, 20_000 # per job
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if 'adp non-farm' in n:
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return 0.0005, 15_000
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if 'unemployment claims' in n:
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return -0.0003, 8_000 # more claims = worse = negative
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if any(k in n for k in ['cpi', 'pce', 'ppi', 'inflation', 'hicp']):
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return 80.0, 0.1 # per %
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if any(k in n for k in ['interest rate', 'rate decision', 'fed fund']):
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return 300.0, 0.1
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if any(k in n for k in ['pmi', 'ism']):
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return 6.0, 0.5
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if 'gdp' in n:
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return 70.0, 0.1
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if any(k in n for k in ['retail sales', 'consumer spending']):
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return 55.0, 0.2
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if 'unemployment rate' in n:
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return -100.0, 0.1 # higher rate = worse
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if 'employment change' in n:
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return 0.0005, 15_000
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return 25.0, 0.5 # default
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_INST_DIR: Dict[tuple, int] = {
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("EURUSD", "USD"): -1, ("EURUSD", "EUR"): +1,
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("USDJPY", "USD"): +1, ("USDJPY", "JPY"): -1,
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("GBPUSD", "USD"): -1, ("GBPUSD", "GBP"): +1,
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("XAUUSD", "USD"): -1,
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("SP500", "USD"): +1,
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("TLT", "USD"): -1,
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("EEM", "USD"): -1,
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("QQQ", "USD"): +1,
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}
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_INST_DIR_INFL: Dict[tuple, int] = {
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("SP500", "USD"): -1, ("QQQ", "USD"): -1, ("TLT", "USD"): -1,
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}
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def _estimate_pip_magnitude(
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event_name: str, currency: str, instrument: str,
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actual: Optional[str], forecast: Optional[str], previous: Optional[str],
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) -> tuple[float, bool, Optional[float]]:
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"""Returns (estimated_pips, has_surprise, surprise_delta). No AI."""
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a = _parse_num(actual)
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f = _parse_num(forecast)
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p = _parse_num(previous)
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if a is None:
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return 0.0, False, None # future event
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ref = f if f is not None else p
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if ref is None:
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return 0.0, False, None
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delta = a - ref
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scale, threshold = _event_scale(event_name)
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has_surprise = abs(delta) >= threshold
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raw = max(-100.0, min(100.0, delta * scale))
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n = event_name.lower()
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is_inflation = any(k in n for k in ['cpi', 'pce', 'ppi', 'inflation', 'hicp'])
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inst = instrument.upper()
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cur = currency.upper()
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direction = _INST_DIR_INFL.get((inst, cur), _INST_DIR.get((inst, cur), 0)) if is_inflation \
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else _INST_DIR.get((inst, cur), 0)
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if direction == 0:
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return round(abs(raw), 1), has_surprise, round(delta, 4)
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return round(raw * direction, 1), has_surprise, round(delta, 4)
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_INSTRUMENT_CURRENCIES: Dict[str, List[str]] = {
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"EURUSD": ["EUR", "USD"],
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"USDJPY": ["USD", "JPY"],
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"XAUUSD": ["USD"],
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"SP500": ["USD"],
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"TLT": ["USD"],
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"GBPUSD": ["GBP", "USD"],
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"EEM": ["USD", "CNY"],
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"QQQ": ["USD"],
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}
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def _ff_event_to_category(event_name: str) -> str:
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n = event_name.lower()
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if any(k in n for k in ["fomc", "fed ", "ecb", "boe", "boj", "rba", "interest rate", "rate decision", "monetary policy", "central bank"]):
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return "central_bank"
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if any(k in n for k in ["cpi", "pce", "ppi", "inflation", "core price"]):
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return "monetary_shock"
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if any(k in n for k in ["nfp", "non-farm", "payroll", "employment change", "unemployment"]):
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return "monetary_shock"
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if any(k in n for k in ["gdp", "growth", "retail sales", "manufacturing", "pmi", "ism"]):
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return "growth_shock"
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if any(k in n for k in ["oil", "opec", "crude", "energy", "natural gas"]):
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return "commodity"
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if any(k in n for k in ["tarif", "trade war", "sanction", "geopolit"]):
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return "geopolitical"
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return "unclassified"
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@router.get("/{instrument}/calendar-events")
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def get_calendar_events(
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instrument: str,
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days_back: int = Query(90, description="Jours en arriere depuis at_date"),
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days_forward: int = Query(180, description="Jours en avant depuis at_date"),
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impacts: Optional[str] = Query("high,medium", description="Filtre impact FF (high,medium,low)"),
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at_date: Optional[str] = Query(None),
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) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
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"""
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Events economiques du calendrier Forex Factory pour cet instrument.
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Source : ff_calendar (Forex Factory). Decorrele des market_events / CausalLab.
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Auto-sync live si ff_calendar vide pour la periode demandee.
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"""
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from services.database import get_conn
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from datetime import datetime, date as date_type, timedelta
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conn = get_conn()
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try:
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inst_upper = instrument.upper()
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try:
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ref = date_type.fromisoformat(at_date) if at_date else datetime.utcnow().date()
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except ValueError:
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ref = datetime.utcnow().date()
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date_from = str(ref - timedelta(days=days_back))
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date_to = str(ref + timedelta(days=days_forward))
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currencies = _INSTRUMENT_CURRENCIES.get(inst_upper, ["USD"])
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impact_filter = [i.strip() for i in impacts.split(",")] if impacts else ["high", "medium"]
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# Auto-sync live si ff_calendar vide pour cette periode
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ph = ",".join("?" * len(currencies))
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n_existing = conn.execute(
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f"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM ff_calendar WHERE event_date>=? AND event_date<=? AND currency IN ({ph})",
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[date_from, date_to, *currencies]
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).fetchone()[0]
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if n_existing == 0:
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try:
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from services.ff_calendar import sync_live
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sync_live()
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except Exception:
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pass
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pi = ",".join("?" * len(impact_filter))
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rows = conn.execute(
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f"""SELECT event_date, event_time, currency, impact, event_name,
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actual_value, forecast_value, previous_value
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FROM ff_calendar
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WHERE event_date >= ? AND event_date <= ?
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AND currency IN ({ph})
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AND impact IN ({pi})
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ORDER BY event_date ASC, event_time ASC""",
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[date_from, date_to, *currencies, *impact_filter]
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).fetchall()
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result = []
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for row in rows:
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r = dict(row)
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ev_date = r["event_date"]
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is_future = ev_date > str(ref)
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category = _ff_event_to_category(r["event_name"])
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est_pips, has_surprise, surp_delta = _estimate_pip_magnitude(
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r["event_name"], r["currency"], inst_upper,
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r.get("actual_value"), r.get("forecast_value"), r.get("previous_value"),
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)
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result.append({
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"date": ev_date,
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"event_time": r.get("event_time", ""),
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"currency": r["currency"],
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"impact": r["impact"],
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"event_name": r["event_name"],
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"label": f"[{r['currency']}] {r['event_name']}",
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"actual_value": r.get("actual_value"),
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"forecast_value": r.get("forecast_value"),
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"previous_value": r.get("previous_value"),
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"category": category,
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"is_future": is_future,
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"estimated_pips": est_pips,
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"has_surprise": has_surprise,
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"surprise_delta": surp_delta,
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})
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return result
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finally:
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conn.close()
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@router.put("/{instrument}/events/{analysis_id}/calibration")
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def update_event_calibration(
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instrument: str,
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analysis_id: int,
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body: CalibrationOverrideBody,
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) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""Écrase les paramètres de lifecycle d'une analyse event (override par-event)."""
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from services.database import get_conn
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import json as _json
|
|
conn = get_conn()
|
|
try:
|
|
row = conn.execute(
|
|
"SELECT id FROM causal_event_analyses WHERE id=? AND instrument=?",
|
|
(analysis_id, instrument.upper())
|
|
).fetchone()
|
|
if not row:
|
|
raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail="Analysis not found")
|
|
calib = {
|
|
"absorption_days": body.absorption_days,
|
|
"rise_days": body.rise_days,
|
|
"plateau_days": body.plateau_days,
|
|
"decay_type": body.decay_type,
|
|
}
|
|
conn.execute("""
|
|
INSERT INTO event_calibration_overrides (analysis_id, calibration_json)
|
|
VALUES (?, ?)
|
|
ON CONFLICT(analysis_id) DO UPDATE SET calibration_json=excluded.calibration_json, updated_at=datetime('now')
|
|
""", (analysis_id, _json.dumps(calib)))
|
|
conn.commit()
|
|
return {"ok": True, "analysis_id": analysis_id, "calibration": calib}
|
|
finally:
|
|
conn.close()
|
|
|
|
|
|
@router.delete("/{instrument}/events/{analysis_id}/calibration")
|
|
def reset_event_calibration(instrument: str, analysis_id: int) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
|
"""Supprime l'override de calibration — retour aux paramètres du template."""
|
|
from services.database import get_conn
|
|
conn = get_conn()
|
|
try:
|
|
conn.execute("DELETE FROM event_calibration_overrides WHERE analysis_id=?", (analysis_id,))
|
|
conn.commit()
|
|
return {"ok": True, "analysis_id": analysis_id}
|
|
finally:
|
|
conn.close()
|
|
|
|
|
|
@router.post("/{instrument}/calibrate")
|
|
def calibrate_intercept(
|
|
instrument: str,
|
|
body: CalibrateBody,
|
|
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
|
"""Auto-calcule l'intercept depuis le cours réel à une date de référence."""
|
|
from services.database import get_conn
|
|
from services.instrument_models import get_model_state, INSTRUMENT_MODELS
|
|
from services.price_history import calibrate_intercept as do_calibrate, get_price_history
|
|
conn = get_conn()
|
|
try:
|
|
inst = instrument.upper()
|
|
state = get_model_state(conn, inst, body.ref_date)
|
|
if not state:
|
|
raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail=f"Modèle introuvable")
|
|
# Make sure prices are cached
|
|
get_price_history(conn, inst, "3mo")
|
|
intercept = do_calibrate(conn, inst, state["structural_pips"], body.ref_date)
|
|
meta = INSTRUMENT_MODELS.get(inst, {})
|
|
return {
|
|
"instrument": inst,
|
|
"ref_date": body.ref_date,
|
|
"structural_pips": state["structural_pips"],
|
|
"pip_to_price": meta.get("pip_to_price", 0.0001),
|
|
"calibrated_intercept": intercept,
|
|
"current_intercept": meta.get("price_intercept", 0.0),
|
|
}
|
|
finally:
|
|
conn.close()
|
|
|
|
|
|
@router.get("/{instrument}")
|
|
def get_instrument_model(
|
|
instrument: str,
|
|
at_date: Optional[str] = Query(None, description="YYYY-MM-DD (défaut: aujourd'hui)"),
|
|
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
|
"""Graphe complet avec valeurs courantes des nœuds (toutes couches)."""
|
|
from services.database import get_conn
|
|
from services.instrument_models import get_model_state
|
|
conn = get_conn()
|
|
try:
|
|
state = get_model_state(conn, instrument.upper(), at_date)
|
|
if not state:
|
|
raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail=f"Modèle introuvable pour {instrument.upper()}")
|
|
return state
|
|
finally:
|
|
conn.close()
|
|
|
|
|
|
@router.put("/{instrument}/nodes/{node_id}/override")
|
|
def set_override(instrument: str, node_id: str, body: OverrideBody) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
|
"""Définit ou met à jour la valeur manuelle d'un nœud."""
|
|
from services.database import get_conn
|
|
from services.instrument_models import set_node_override
|
|
conn = get_conn()
|
|
try:
|
|
set_node_override(conn, instrument.upper(), node_id, body.value, body.note or "")
|
|
return {"ok": True, "instrument": instrument.upper(), "node_id": node_id, "value": body.value}
|
|
finally:
|
|
conn.close()
|
|
|
|
|
|
@router.delete("/{instrument}/nodes/{node_id}/override")
|
|
def clear_override(instrument: str, node_id: str) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
|
"""Supprime l'override manuel d'un nœud (retour neutre/events)."""
|
|
from services.database import get_conn
|
|
from services.instrument_models import clear_node_override
|
|
conn = get_conn()
|
|
try:
|
|
clear_node_override(conn, instrument.upper(), node_id)
|
|
return {"ok": True, "instrument": instrument.upper(), "node_id": node_id}
|
|
finally:
|
|
conn.close()
|
|
|
|
|
|
@router.get("/{instrument}/nodes/overrides")
|
|
def get_all_overrides(instrument: str) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
|
|
"""Toutes les overrides manuelles pour un instrument."""
|
|
from services.database import get_conn
|
|
conn = get_conn()
|
|
try:
|
|
rows = conn.execute(
|
|
"SELECT node_id, value, note, set_at FROM instrument_node_overrides WHERE instrument=? ORDER BY set_at DESC",
|
|
(instrument.upper(),)
|
|
).fetchall()
|
|
return [dict(r) for r in rows]
|
|
finally:
|
|
conn.close()
|