feat: institutional reports — CFTC COT + EIA petroleum weekly

- New institutional_reports table (DB) with importance, signals per asset class, key points, absorption tracking
- cot_fetcher.py: CFTC Socrata API (6dca-aqww), 7 instruments (Gold/Silver/Copper/WTI/NatGas/SP500/EURUSD), net positioning + 52-week z-score
- eia_fetcher.py: EIA API v2, 4 series (crude/Cushing/gasoline/distillates), WoW surprise detection
- institutional.py router: GET /reports, GET /reports/{id}, POST /refresh, GET /stats
- institutional_scheduler.py: weekly auto-fetch (COT Saturdays, EIA Wednesday afternoons)
- ai_analyzer.py: build_institutional_block() + institutional_block param injected into AI scoring prompt
- auto_cycle.py: inject institutional block into suggestion + scoring, absorption tracking via keyword overlap after each cycle commentary
- InstitutionalReports.tsx: full page with filter bar (type/category/importance/period), cards with key point bullets, EXTREME alerts highlighted, signal badges, absorption badge, trading implications, expandable detail

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
OpenSquared
2026-06-22 13:45:07 +02:00
parent 4423ad91db
commit 3edbd6b0b7
12 changed files with 1228 additions and 2 deletions

View File

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ from routers import market_data, geopolitical, options, backtest, ai, portfolio,
from routers import logs as logs_router
from routers import var as var_router
from routers import reports as reports_router
from routers import institutional as institutional_router
from services.database import init_db, get_config, cleanup_stale_running_cycles
import os
import logging
@@ -80,6 +81,9 @@ def startup():
from services.var_scheduler import start_var_scheduler, start_pnl_scheduler
start_var_scheduler()
start_pnl_scheduler()
# Start institutional reports weekly scheduler (COT Fridays, EIA Wednesdays)
from services.institutional_scheduler import start_institutional_scheduler
start_institutional_scheduler()
@app.on_event("shutdown")
@@ -89,6 +93,8 @@ def shutdown():
from services.var_scheduler import stop_var_scheduler, stop_pnl_scheduler
stop_var_scheduler()
stop_pnl_scheduler()
from services.institutional_scheduler import stop_institutional_scheduler
stop_institutional_scheduler()
app.include_router(market_data.router)
@@ -110,6 +116,7 @@ app.include_router(risk_router.router)
app.include_router(logs_router.router)
app.include_router(var_router.router)
app.include_router(reports_router.router)
app.include_router(institutional_router.router)
@app.get("/")

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,222 @@
"""
Institutional reports router — CFTC COT + EIA petroleum weekly.
GET /api/institutional/reports — list with filters
GET /api/institutional/reports/{id} — single report detail
POST /api/institutional/refresh — trigger fetch
GET /api/institutional/stats — counts + latest dates
"""
import json
import logging
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException, Query
from services.database import get_conn, get_config
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/institutional", tags=["institutional"])
# ── DB helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
def _row_to_dict(row) -> Dict:
d = dict(row)
for field in ("raw_data_json", "key_points_json"):
raw = d.pop(field, None) or ("[]" if "key_points" in field else "{}")
try:
d[field.replace("_json", "")] = json.loads(raw)
except Exception:
d[field.replace("_json", "")] = [] if "key_points" in field else {}
return d
def save_institutional_report(report: Dict) -> Optional[int]:
"""Insert or update an institutional report. Returns row id."""
conn = get_conn()
try:
existing = conn.execute(
"SELECT id FROM institutional_reports WHERE report_type=? AND report_date=?",
(report["report_type"], report["report_date"]),
).fetchone()
raw_json = json.dumps(report.get("raw_data", {}), ensure_ascii=False)
kp_json = json.dumps(report.get("key_points", []), ensure_ascii=False)
if existing:
conn.execute(
"""UPDATE institutional_reports SET
fetch_date=datetime('now'), raw_data_json=?, key_points_json=?,
trading_implications=?, signal_energy=?, signal_metals=?,
signal_indices=?, signal_forex=?, ai_summary=?, importance=?,
title=?
WHERE id=?""",
(
raw_json, kp_json,
report.get("trading_implications", ""),
report.get("signal_energy", "neutral"),
report.get("signal_metals", "neutral"),
report.get("signal_indices", "neutral"),
report.get("signal_forex", "neutral"),
report.get("ai_summary", ""),
report.get("importance", 2),
report.get("title", ""),
existing["id"],
),
)
conn.commit()
return existing["id"]
cursor = conn.execute(
"""INSERT INTO institutional_reports
(report_type, report_date, title, source, importance, category,
raw_data_json, key_points_json, trading_implications,
signal_energy, signal_metals, signal_indices, signal_forex, ai_summary)
VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)""",
(
report["report_type"],
report["report_date"],
report.get("title", ""),
report.get("source", ""),
report.get("importance", 2),
report.get("category", "multi"),
raw_json, kp_json,
report.get("trading_implications", ""),
report.get("signal_energy", "neutral"),
report.get("signal_metals", "neutral"),
report.get("signal_indices", "neutral"),
report.get("signal_forex", "neutral"),
report.get("ai_summary", ""),
),
)
conn.commit()
return cursor.lastrowid
finally:
conn.close()
# ── Routes ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
@router.get("/reports")
def list_reports(
report_type: Optional[str] = Query(None),
category: Optional[str] = Query(None),
importance: Optional[int] = Query(None),
days: int = Query(90),
limit: int = Query(50),
):
conn = get_conn()
try:
conditions = ["1=1"]
params: List[Any] = []
if report_type:
conditions.append("report_type = ?")
params.append(report_type)
if category:
conditions.append("category = ?")
params.append(category)
if importance:
conditions.append("importance >= ?")
params.append(importance)
if days:
cutoff = (datetime.utcnow() - timedelta(days=days)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
conditions.append("report_date >= ?")
params.append(cutoff)
where = " AND ".join(conditions)
rows = conn.execute(
f"SELECT * FROM institutional_reports WHERE {where} "
f"ORDER BY report_date DESC, importance DESC LIMIT ?",
params + [limit],
).fetchall()
return [_row_to_dict(r) for r in rows]
finally:
conn.close()
@router.get("/reports/{report_id}")
def get_report(report_id: int):
conn = get_conn()
try:
row = conn.execute(
"SELECT * FROM institutional_reports WHERE id=?", (report_id,)
).fetchone()
if not row:
raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail="Report not found")
return _row_to_dict(row)
finally:
conn.close()
@router.post("/refresh")
def refresh_reports(report_type: Optional[str] = Query(None)):
"""Trigger a live fetch of COT and/or EIA reports."""
results: Dict[str, str] = {}
if not report_type or report_type == "cot":
try:
from services.cot_fetcher import fetch_cot_report
report = fetch_cot_report()
if report:
save_institutional_report(report)
results["cot"] = "ok"
logger.info(f"[Institutional] COT report saved: {report['report_date']}")
else:
results["cot"] = "no_data"
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"[Institutional] COT refresh failed: {e}")
results["cot"] = f"error: {str(e)[:100]}"
if not report_type or report_type == "eia":
try:
eia_key = get_config("eia_api_key") or ""
if eia_key:
from services.eia_fetcher import fetch_eia_report
report = fetch_eia_report(eia_key)
if report:
save_institutional_report(report)
results["eia"] = "ok"
logger.info(f"[Institutional] EIA report saved: {report['report_date']}")
else:
results["eia"] = "no_data"
else:
results["eia"] = "no_api_key"
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"[Institutional] EIA refresh failed: {e}")
results["eia"] = f"error: {str(e)[:100]}"
return {"status": "done", "results": results}
@router.get("/stats")
def get_stats():
conn = get_conn()
try:
total = conn.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM institutional_reports").fetchone()[0]
by_type = dict(conn.execute(
"SELECT report_type, COUNT(*) FROM institutional_reports GROUP BY report_type"
).fetchall())
latest_cot = conn.execute(
"SELECT MAX(report_date) FROM institutional_reports WHERE report_type='cot'"
).fetchone()[0]
latest_eia = conn.execute(
"SELECT MAX(report_date) FROM institutional_reports WHERE report_type='eia'"
).fetchone()[0]
absorbed = conn.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM institutional_reports "
"WHERE absorbed_score IS NOT NULL AND absorbed_score > 0.3"
).fetchone()[0]
high_importance = conn.execute(
"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM institutional_reports WHERE importance=3"
).fetchone()[0]
return {
"total": total,
"by_type": by_type,
"latest_cot": latest_cot,
"latest_eia": latest_eia,
"absorbed_count": absorbed,
"high_importance_count": high_importance,
}
finally:
conn.close()

View File

@@ -393,6 +393,7 @@ def score_patterns_with_context(
fred_block: str = "",
price_discovery_block: str = "",
portfolio_context_block: str = "",
institutional_block: str = "",
run_id: str = "",
) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
"""Score all patterns with rich context (news, prices, IV, risk clusters) using GPT-4o."""
@@ -616,6 +617,7 @@ Scoring instructions:
_fred_sc_section = f"\n{fred_block}\n" if fred_block else ""
_pd_sc_section = f"\n{price_discovery_block}\n" if price_discovery_block else ""
_portfolio_sc_section = f"\n{portfolio_context_block}\n" if portfolio_context_block else ""
_inst_sc_section = f"\n{institutional_block}\n" if institutional_block else ""
user = f"""GLOBAL CONTEXT:
- Geopolitical risk score: {geo_score.get('score', 50)}/100 ({geo_score.get('level', 'medium')})
@@ -625,6 +627,7 @@ Scoring instructions:
{_fred_sc_section}
{_pd_sc_section}
{_tech_sc_section}
{_inst_sc_section}
{_portfolio_sc_section}
SCORING TEMPLATE:
{scoring_template}
@@ -1194,6 +1197,51 @@ def _build_temporal_news_block(partitioned: Dict[str, List], cycle_meta: Dict) -
return block
def build_institutional_block(days: int = 7) -> str:
"""Build a concise institutional reports block for injection into AI prompts."""
try:
from services.database import get_conn
conn = get_conn()
try:
from datetime import datetime as _dt, timedelta as _td
cutoff = (_dt.utcnow() - _td(days=days)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
rows = conn.execute(
"SELECT report_type, report_date, key_points_json, trading_implications, "
"signal_energy, signal_metals, signal_indices, signal_forex, importance "
"FROM institutional_reports WHERE report_date >= ? ORDER BY report_date DESC LIMIT 6",
(cutoff,),
).fetchall()
finally:
conn.close()
if not rows:
return ""
import json as _json
lines = ["## INSTITUTIONAL REPORTS (CFTC COT + EIA — last 7 days)"]
for r in rows:
rtype = r["report_type"].upper()
rdate = r["report_date"]
importance_str = "★★★" if r["importance"] == 3 else "★★" if r["importance"] == 2 else ""
signals = (
f"Energy={r['signal_energy']} | Metals={r['signal_metals']} | "
f"Indices={r['signal_indices']} | Forex={r['signal_forex']}"
)
lines.append(f"\n### {rtype} {rdate} {importance_str}{signals}")
try:
kps = _json.loads(r["key_points_json"] or "[]")
for kp in kps[:4]:
lines.append(f"{kp}")
except Exception:
pass
if r["trading_implications"]:
lines.append(f" → Implications: {r['trading_implications'][:200]}")
return "\n".join(lines)
except Exception as _e:
return ""
def suggest_patterns_from_market_context(
news: List[Dict],
quotes_by_class: Dict[str, List[Dict]],

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@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Cycle steps:
import logging
import threading
import uuid
from datetime import datetime
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
@@ -551,6 +551,16 @@ def run_cycle_once(trigger: str = "auto") -> Dict[str, Any]:
except Exception as _cbe:
logger.warning(f"[Cycle] Convergence block build failed (non-blocking): {_cbe}")
# ── Build institutional reports block ──────────────────────────
_institutional_block = ""
try:
from services.ai_analyzer import build_institutional_block
_institutional_block = build_institutional_block(days=7)
if _institutional_block:
logger.info(f"[Cycle {run_id[:16]}] Institutional block injected")
except Exception as _ibe:
logger.warning(f"[Cycle] Institutional block failed (non-blocking): {_ibe}")
suggestions = suggest_patterns_from_market_context(
news, quotes, calendar, macro_regime=macro_regime, geo_score=geo_score_obj,
portfolio_lessons=portfolio_lessons,
@@ -705,6 +715,7 @@ def run_cycle_once(trigger: str = "auto") -> Dict[str, Any]:
fred_block=_fred_block,
price_discovery_block=_price_discovery_block,
portfolio_context_block=_portfolio_block,
institutional_block=_institutional_block,
run_id=run_id,
)
scored_with_id = [s for s in scored if s.get("pattern_id")]
@@ -991,6 +1002,56 @@ def run_cycle_once(trigger: str = "auto") -> Dict[str, Any]:
_current_status["last_run_at"] = datetime.utcnow().isoformat()
logger.info(f"[Cycle {run_id[:16]}] Completed — {added_count} new patterns, {len(scored)} scored")
# ── Step 6.1: Institutional report absorption tracking ───────────────
try:
from services.database import get_conn as _get_conn
import json as _json
_commentary_text = ""
if commentary:
try:
_c = _json.loads(commentary) if isinstance(commentary, str) else commentary
_commentary_text = " ".join([
str(_c.get("narrative", "")),
str(_c.get("key_catalyst", "")),
" ".join(str(x) for x in (_c.get("risks", []) or [])),
]).lower()
except Exception:
_commentary_text = str(commentary).lower()
if _commentary_text:
_conn = _get_conn()
try:
cutoff = (datetime.utcnow() - timedelta(days=14)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
_inst_rows = _conn.execute(
"SELECT id, key_points_json FROM institutional_reports "
"WHERE report_date >= ? AND (absorbed_score IS NULL OR absorbed_score = 0)",
(cutoff,),
).fetchall()
for _ir in _inst_rows:
try:
_kps = _json.loads(_ir["key_points_json"] or "[]")
_kp_words = set(
w for kp in _kps for w in kp.lower().split()
if len(w) > 4
)
if not _kp_words:
continue
_overlap = sum(1 for w in _kp_words if w in _commentary_text)
_score = min(1.0, _overlap / max(len(_kp_words), 1))
if _score > 0:
_conn.execute(
"UPDATE institutional_reports SET absorbed_score=?, injected_in_cycle_id=? WHERE id=?",
(round(_score, 3), run_id, _ir["id"]),
)
except Exception:
pass
_conn.commit()
logger.info(f"[Cycle {run_id[:16]}] Absorption tracked for {len(_inst_rows)} institutional reports")
finally:
_conn.close()
except Exception as _abs_e:
logger.warning(f"[Cycle] Absorption tracking failed (non-blocking): {_abs_e}")
# ── Step 6.5: Generate full cycle report ─────────────────────────────
try:
_cycle_report = _generate_cycle_report(

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@@ -0,0 +1,194 @@
"""
CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) weekly fetcher.
Data from CFTC Socrata public API — no API key required.
"""
import logging
import math
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
import requests
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
SOCRATA_URL = "https://publicreporting.cftc.gov/resource/6dca-aqww.json"
COT_INSTRUMENTS = {
"088691": {"name": "Gold", "category": "metals", "signal_field": "signal_metals"},
"084691": {"name": "Silver", "category": "metals", "signal_field": "signal_metals"},
"085692": {"name": "Copper", "category": "metals", "signal_field": "signal_metals"},
"067651": {"name": "Crude Oil (WTI)", "category": "energy", "signal_field": "signal_energy"},
"023651": {"name": "Natural Gas", "category": "energy", "signal_field": "signal_energy"},
"13874+": {"name": "S&P 500", "category": "equities", "signal_field": "signal_indices"},
"099741": {"name": "EUR/USD", "category": "forex", "signal_field": "signal_forex"},
}
_SIGNAL_PRIORITY = {"bullish": 3, "bearish": 3, "neutral": 0}
def _fetch_cot_history(contract_code: str, weeks: int = 56) -> List[Dict]:
cutoff = (datetime.utcnow() - timedelta(weeks=weeks)).strftime("%Y-%m-%dT00:00:00.000")
params = {
"$where": f"cftc_contract_market_code='{contract_code}' AND report_date_as_yyyy_mm_dd>='{cutoff}'",
"$order": "report_date_as_yyyy_mm_dd DESC",
"$limit": weeks + 5,
"$select": (
"report_date_as_yyyy_mm_dd,"
"noncomm_positions_long_all,noncomm_positions_short_all,"
"comm_positions_long_all,comm_positions_short_all,"
"open_interest_all"
),
}
try:
resp = requests.get(SOCRATA_URL, params=params, timeout=25)
resp.raise_for_status()
return resp.json()
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"[COT] Failed to fetch {contract_code}: {e}")
return []
def _compute_net_and_zscore(rows: List[Dict]) -> Optional[Dict]:
if not rows:
return None
nets = []
for row in rows:
try:
longs = float(row.get("noncomm_positions_long_all") or 0)
shorts = float(row.get("noncomm_positions_short_all") or 0)
nets.append(longs - shorts)
except (TypeError, ValueError):
continue
if not nets:
return None
current_net = nets[0]
latest_date = rows[0].get("report_date_as_yyyy_mm_dd", "")[:10]
history_52w = nets[:52]
if len(history_52w) >= 4:
mean = sum(history_52w) / len(history_52w)
variance = sum((x - mean) ** 2 for x in history_52w) / len(history_52w)
std = math.sqrt(variance) if variance > 0 else 1.0
z_score = (current_net - mean) / std
else:
mean = current_net
z_score = 0.0
week_change = current_net - nets[1] if len(nets) > 1 else 0.0
return {
"report_date": latest_date,
"net_positioning": round(current_net),
"week_change": round(week_change),
"z_score": round(z_score, 2),
"mean_52w": round(mean),
"history_count": len(history_52w),
}
def _signal_from_zscore(z: float) -> str:
if z >= 1.5:
return "bullish"
elif z <= -1.5:
return "bearish"
return "neutral"
def fetch_cot_report() -> Optional[Dict]:
"""Fetch latest COT data for all tracked instruments and return structured report dict."""
results: Dict[str, Any] = {}
report_dates = []
for code, meta in COT_INSTRUMENTS.items():
rows = _fetch_cot_history(code)
analysis = _compute_net_and_zscore(rows)
if analysis:
results[meta["name"]] = {
**analysis,
"category": meta["category"],
"signal_field": meta["signal_field"],
"signal": _signal_from_zscore(analysis["z_score"]),
}
if analysis["report_date"]:
report_dates.append(analysis["report_date"])
if not results:
logger.warning("[COT] No results returned from CFTC API")
return None
report_date = max(report_dates) if report_dates else datetime.utcnow().strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
signals = {
"signal_energy": "neutral",
"signal_metals": "neutral",
"signal_indices": "neutral",
"signal_forex": "neutral",
}
key_points: List[str] = []
extremes: List[str] = []
for name, data in results.items():
z = data["z_score"]
net_k = round(data["net_positioning"] / 1000, 1)
change_k = round(data["week_change"] / 1000, 1)
kp = f"{name}: net {net_k:+.0f}k contracts (z-score {z:+.2f})"
if abs(z) >= 1.5:
kp += " — EXTREME"
extremes.append(name)
elif abs(z) >= 0.8:
kp += " — notable"
if abs(change_k) >= 5:
dir_str = "+" if change_k >= 0 else ""
kp += f", WoW {dir_str}{change_k:.0f}k"
key_points.append(kp)
sf = data["signal_field"]
new_sig = data["signal"]
if _SIGNAL_PRIORITY.get(new_sig, 0) > _SIGNAL_PRIORITY.get(signals.get(sf, "neutral"), 0):
signals[sf] = new_sig
implications: List[str] = []
for name, data in results.items():
z = data["z_score"]
if z >= 1.5:
implications.append(
f"Extreme long spec positioning in {name} — crowded trade, watch for reversal"
)
elif z <= -1.5:
implications.append(
f"Extreme short spec positioning in {name} — short squeeze risk"
)
elif z >= 1.0:
implications.append(f"Bullish spec momentum building in {name}")
elif z <= -1.0:
implications.append(f"Bearish spec momentum in {name}")
if not implications:
implications = ["COT positioning broadly neutral — no directional extreme this week"]
importance = 3 if extremes else 2
ai_summary = (
f"CFTC COT weekly ({report_date}). "
f"Tracked {len(results)} instruments. "
+ (f"Extreme readings: {', '.join(extremes)}. " if extremes else "")
+ f"Energy={signals['signal_energy']}, Metals={signals['signal_metals']}, "
f"Indices={signals['signal_indices']}, Forex={signals['signal_forex']}."
)
return {
"report_type": "cot",
"report_date": report_date,
"title": f"CFTC COT Weekly — {report_date}",
"source": "CFTC Socrata API",
"importance": importance,
"category": "multi",
"raw_data": results,
"key_points": key_points,
"trading_implications": " | ".join(implications),
**signals,
"ai_summary": ai_summary,
}

View File

@@ -549,6 +549,33 @@ def init_db():
except Exception:
pass
c.execute("""CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS institutional_reports (
id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
report_type TEXT NOT NULL,
report_date TEXT NOT NULL,
fetch_date TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT (datetime('now')),
title TEXT NOT NULL,
source TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
importance INTEGER NOT NULL DEFAULT 2,
category TEXT NOT NULL DEFAULT 'multi',
raw_data_json TEXT DEFAULT '{}',
key_points_json TEXT DEFAULT '[]',
trading_implications TEXT DEFAULT '',
signal_energy TEXT DEFAULT 'neutral',
signal_metals TEXT DEFAULT 'neutral',
signal_indices TEXT DEFAULT 'neutral',
signal_forex TEXT DEFAULT 'neutral',
ai_summary TEXT DEFAULT '',
injected_in_cycle_id TEXT DEFAULT NULL,
absorbed_score REAL DEFAULT NULL,
UNIQUE(report_type, report_date)
)""")
try:
c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_inst_type_date ON institutional_reports(report_type, report_date DESC)")
c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_inst_importance ON institutional_reports(importance DESC, report_date DESC)")
except Exception:
pass
try:
c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_kb_category ON knowledge_base(category, status)")
c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_rs_version ON reasoning_state(version DESC)")

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@@ -0,0 +1,165 @@
"""
EIA Petroleum Weekly Status Report fetcher.
Uses EIA API v2 — free key stored in DB config as 'eia_api_key'.
"""
import logging
from datetime import datetime
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
import requests
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
EIA_BASE_URL = "https://api.eia.gov/v2/petroleum/stoc/wstk/data/"
EIA_SERIES: Dict[str, Dict[str, str]] = {
"WCRSTUS1": {"name": "US Crude Oil Stocks (ex-SPR)", "unit": "Mb"},
"WCUOK1A": {"name": "Cushing, OK Crude Stocks", "unit": "Mb"},
"WGTSTUS1": {"name": "US Total Gasoline Stocks", "unit": "Mb"},
"WDISTUS1": {"name": "US Distillate Fuel Oil Stocks", "unit": "Mb"},
}
SURPRISE_THRESHOLD_MB = 2.0
def _fetch_series(series_id: str, api_key: str, num_weeks: int = 8) -> List[Dict]:
params = {
"api_key": api_key,
"frequency": "weekly",
"data[]": "value",
"facets[series][]": series_id,
"sort[0][column]": "period",
"sort[0][direction]": "desc",
"length": num_weeks,
"offset": 0,
}
try:
resp = requests.get(EIA_BASE_URL, params=params, timeout=20)
resp.raise_for_status()
return resp.json().get("response", {}).get("data", [])
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"[EIA] Failed to fetch {series_id}: {e}")
return []
def fetch_eia_report(api_key: str) -> Optional[Dict]:
"""Fetch latest EIA petroleum weekly stocks. Returns None if key missing or all fetches fail."""
if not api_key:
logger.warning("[EIA] No API key — skipping")
return None
results: Dict[str, Any] = {}
report_dates: List[str] = []
for sid, meta in EIA_SERIES.items():
rows = _fetch_series(sid, api_key)
if not rows:
continue
current = rows[0]
prior = rows[1] if len(rows) > 1 else None
cur_val = float(current.get("value") or 0)
pri_val = float(prior.get("value") or 0) if prior else None
wow = round(cur_val - pri_val, 1) if pri_val is not None else None
results[sid] = {
"name": meta["name"],
"period": (current.get("period") or "")[:10],
"value_mb": round(cur_val, 1),
"prior_mb": round(pri_val, 1) if pri_val is not None else None,
"wow_change_mb": wow,
}
if current.get("period"):
report_dates.append(current["period"][:10])
if not results:
logger.warning("[EIA] No data returned")
return None
report_date = max(report_dates) if report_dates else datetime.utcnow().strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
key_points: List[str] = []
implications: List[str] = []
surprises: List[str] = []
signal_energy = "neutral"
crude = results.get("WCRSTUS1")
if crude:
wow_str = f"{crude['wow_change_mb']:+.1f} Mb" if crude["wow_change_mb"] is not None else "N/A"
kp = f"US crude oil stocks: {crude['value_mb']:.1f} Mb (WoW {wow_str})"
if crude["wow_change_mb"] is not None and abs(crude["wow_change_mb"]) >= SURPRISE_THRESHOLD_MB:
direction = "draw" if crude["wow_change_mb"] < 0 else "build"
kp += f" — significant {direction}"
surprises.append("crude")
signal_energy = "bullish" if crude["wow_change_mb"] < 0 else "bearish"
key_points.append(kp)
cushing = results.get("WCUOK1A")
if cushing:
wow_str = f"{cushing['wow_change_mb']:+.1f} Mb" if cushing["wow_change_mb"] is not None else "N/A"
key_points.append(f"Cushing, OK: {cushing['value_mb']:.1f} Mb (WoW {wow_str})")
gasoline = results.get("WGTSTUS1")
if gasoline:
wow_str = f"{gasoline['wow_change_mb']:+.1f} Mb" if gasoline["wow_change_mb"] is not None else "N/A"
kp = f"US gasoline stocks: {gasoline['value_mb']:.1f} Mb (WoW {wow_str})"
if gasoline["wow_change_mb"] is not None and abs(gasoline["wow_change_mb"]) >= SURPRISE_THRESHOLD_MB:
surprises.append("gasoline")
key_points.append(kp)
distillates = results.get("WDISTUS1")
if distillates:
wow_str = f"{distillates['wow_change_mb']:+.1f} Mb" if distillates["wow_change_mb"] is not None else "N/A"
kp = f"US distillate stocks: {distillates['value_mb']:.1f} Mb (WoW {wow_str})"
if distillates["wow_change_mb"] is not None and abs(distillates["wow_change_mb"]) >= SURPRISE_THRESHOLD_MB:
surprises.append("distillates")
key_points.append(kp)
crude_wow = (crude or {}).get("wow_change_mb")
if crude_wow is not None:
if crude_wow < -SURPRISE_THRESHOLD_MB:
implications.append(
f"Crude draw of {abs(crude_wow):.1f} Mb — bullish for WTI/Brent spot"
)
elif crude_wow > SURPRISE_THRESHOLD_MB:
implications.append(
f"Crude build of {crude_wow:.1f} Mb — bearish for WTI/Brent spot"
)
gasoline_wow = (gasoline or {}).get("wow_change_mb")
if gasoline_wow is not None and abs(gasoline_wow) >= SURPRISE_THRESHOLD_MB:
demand_str = "strong" if gasoline_wow < 0 else "weak"
implications.append(
f"Gasoline {'draw' if gasoline_wow < 0 else 'build'} ({gasoline_wow:+.1f} Mb) — {demand_str} driving demand"
)
if not implications:
implications = ["EIA petroleum stocks in line with seasonal norms — no major surprise"]
importance = 3 if len(surprises) >= 2 else 2 if len(surprises) == 1 else 1
crude_val_str = f"{crude['value_mb']:.1f}" if crude else "N/A"
crude_wow_str = f" (WoW {crude['wow_change_mb']:+.1f} Mb)" if crude and crude["wow_change_mb"] is not None else ""
ai_summary = (
f"EIA Petroleum Weekly ({report_date}). "
f"Crude: {crude_val_str} Mb{crude_wow_str}. "
f"Signal: {signal_energy.upper()}. "
+ (f"Surprises: {', '.join(surprises)}. " if surprises else "")
+ implications[0]
)
return {
"report_type": "eia",
"report_date": report_date,
"title": f"EIA Petroleum Weekly — {report_date}",
"source": "EIA API v2",
"importance": importance,
"category": "energy",
"raw_data": results,
"key_points": key_points,
"trading_implications": " | ".join(implications),
"signal_energy": signal_energy,
"signal_metals": "neutral",
"signal_indices": "neutral",
"signal_forex": "neutral",
"ai_summary": ai_summary,
}

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
"""
Weekly scheduler for institutional reports:
- CFTC COT: released every Friday ~15:30 ET → fetch Saturday UTC
- EIA Petroleum Weekly: released every Wednesday ~10:30 ET → fetch Wednesday afternoon UTC
Checks once per hour; only fetches when the day matches and report not yet fetched this week.
"""
import logging
import threading
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from typing import Optional
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
_stop_event = threading.Event()
_thread: Optional[threading.Thread] = None
_CHECK_INTERVAL_S = 3600 # check every hour
def _should_fetch_cot() -> bool:
"""Saturday UTC = day after COT release."""
now = datetime.utcnow()
return now.weekday() == 5 # Saturday
def _should_fetch_eia() -> bool:
"""Wednesday afternoon UTC."""
now = datetime.utcnow()
return now.weekday() == 2 and now.hour >= 16 # Wednesday ≥16:00 UTC
def _last_fetch_date(report_type: str) -> Optional[str]:
try:
from services.database import get_conn
conn = get_conn()
try:
row = conn.execute(
"SELECT MAX(fetch_date) FROM institutional_reports WHERE report_type=?",
(report_type,),
).fetchone()
return (row[0] or "")[:10] if row else None
finally:
conn.close()
except Exception:
return None
def _run_loop():
logger.info("[InstitutionalScheduler] Started")
while not _stop_event.is_set():
try:
today = datetime.utcnow().strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
if _should_fetch_cot():
last = _last_fetch_date("cot")
if last != today:
logger.info("[InstitutionalScheduler] Fetching COT...")
try:
from services.cot_fetcher import fetch_cot_report
from routers.institutional import save_institutional_report
report = fetch_cot_report()
if report:
save_institutional_report(report)
logger.info(f"[InstitutionalScheduler] COT saved: {report['report_date']}")
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"[InstitutionalScheduler] COT fetch failed: {e}")
if _should_fetch_eia():
last = _last_fetch_date("eia")
if last != today:
logger.info("[InstitutionalScheduler] Fetching EIA...")
try:
from services.database import get_config
from services.eia_fetcher import fetch_eia_report
from routers.institutional import save_institutional_report
key = get_config("eia_api_key") or ""
if key:
report = fetch_eia_report(key)
if report:
save_institutional_report(report)
logger.info(f"[InstitutionalScheduler] EIA saved: {report['report_date']}")
else:
logger.info("[InstitutionalScheduler] EIA skipped — no API key configured")
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"[InstitutionalScheduler] EIA fetch failed: {e}")
except Exception as e:
logger.warning(f"[InstitutionalScheduler] Loop error: {e}")
_stop_event.wait(_CHECK_INTERVAL_S)
logger.info("[InstitutionalScheduler] Stopped")
def start_institutional_scheduler():
global _thread
_stop_event.clear()
_thread = threading.Thread(target=_run_loop, daemon=True, name="institutional-scheduler")
_thread.start()
def stop_institutional_scheduler():
_stop_event.set()
if _thread and _thread.is_alive():
_thread.join(timeout=5)

View File

@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ import RiskDashboard from './pages/RiskDashboard'
import SystemLogs from './pages/SystemLogs'
import VaRAnalysis from './pages/VaRAnalysis'
import PositionHistory from './pages/PositionHistory'
import InstitutionalReports from './pages/InstitutionalReports'
import { useCycleWatcher } from './hooks/useApi'
function GlobalWatcher() {
@@ -53,6 +54,7 @@ export default function App() {
<Route path="/var" element={<VaRAnalysis />} />
<Route path="/position-history" element={<PositionHistory />} />
<Route path="/logs" element={<SystemLogs />} />
<Route path="/institutional" element={<InstitutionalReports />} />
</Routes>
</main>
</div>

View File

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
import { NavLink } from 'react-router-dom'
import {
LayoutDashboard, Globe, BarChart2, FlaskConical,
History, Calendar, TrendingUp, Zap, DollarSign, Settings, BrainCircuit, Activity, BookOpen, FileBarChart, Brain, ShieldAlert, Microscope, ScrollText, Gauge, GitCompare
History, Calendar, TrendingUp, Zap, DollarSign, Settings, BrainCircuit, Activity, BookOpen, FileBarChart, Brain, ShieldAlert, Microscope, ScrollText, Gauge, GitCompare, Building2
} from 'lucide-react'
import { useGeoRiskScore, useAiStatus, usePortfolioSummary } from '../../hooks/useApi'
import clsx from 'clsx'
@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ const nav = [
{ to: '/position-history', icon: GitCompare, label: 'Position History' },
{ to: '/backtest', icon: History, label: 'Backtest' },
{ to: '/calendar', icon: Calendar, label: 'Calendar' },
{ to: '/institutional', icon: Building2, label: 'Inst. Reports' },
{ to: '/logs', icon: ScrollText, label: 'System Logs' },
{ to: '/config', icon: Settings, label: 'Configuration' },
]

View File

@@ -914,3 +914,32 @@ export const useRemoveWatchlistTicker = () =>
useMutation({
mutationFn: (ticker: string) => api.delete(`/options-vol/watchlist-tickers/${encodeURIComponent(ticker)}`).then(r => r.data),
})
// ── Institutional Reports ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
export const useInstitutionalReports = (params: {
report_type?: string
category?: string
importance?: number
days?: number
}) =>
useQuery({
queryKey: ['institutional-reports', params],
queryFn: () =>
api.get('/institutional/reports', { params }).then(r => r.data),
refetchInterval: 3_600_000,
})
export const useInstitutionalStats = () =>
useQuery({
queryKey: ['institutional-stats'],
queryFn: () => api.get('/institutional/stats').then(r => r.data),
staleTime: 300_000,
})
export const useRefreshInstitutionalReports = () =>
useMutation({
mutationFn: (report_type?: string) =>
api.post('/institutional/refresh', null, { params: report_type ? { report_type } : {} }).then(r => r.data),
})

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,366 @@
import { useState } from 'react'
import { useInstitutionalReports, useInstitutionalStats, useRefreshInstitutionalReports } from '../hooks/useApi'
import { useQueryClient } from '@tanstack/react-query'
import { RefreshCw, TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Minus, AlertTriangle, Star, CheckCircle, Clock } from 'lucide-react'
import clsx from 'clsx'
import { format } from 'date-fns'
interface InstitutionalReport {
id: number
report_type: string
report_date: string
fetch_date: string
title: string
source: string
importance: number
category: string
key_points: string[]
trading_implications: string
signal_energy: string
signal_metals: string
signal_indices: string
signal_forex: string
ai_summary: string
absorbed_score: number | null
injected_in_cycle_id: string | null
}
const SIGNAL_CONFIG: Record<string, { label: string; color: string; icon: React.ReactNode }> = {
bullish: { label: 'Bullish', color: 'text-emerald-400 bg-emerald-900/30 border-emerald-700/40', icon: <TrendingUp className="w-3 h-3" /> },
bearish: { label: 'Bearish', color: 'text-red-400 bg-red-900/30 border-red-700/40', icon: <TrendingDown className="w-3 h-3" /> },
neutral: { label: 'Neutral', color: 'text-slate-400 bg-slate-800/50 border-slate-700/40', icon: <Minus className="w-3 h-3" /> },
}
const ASSET_CLASSES = ['energy', 'metals', 'indices', 'forex'] as const
function SignalBadge({ signal, label }: { signal: string; label: string }) {
const cfg = SIGNAL_CONFIG[signal] ?? SIGNAL_CONFIG.neutral
return (
<span className={clsx('inline-flex items-center gap-1 px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded border text-xs font-medium', cfg.color)}>
{cfg.icon}
<span className="text-slate-400 mr-0.5">{label}:</span>
{cfg.label}
</span>
)
}
function ImportanceStars({ n }: { n: number }) {
return (
<span className="flex items-center gap-0.5">
{[1, 2, 3].map(i => (
<Star
key={i}
className={clsx('w-3 h-3', i <= n ? 'text-amber-400 fill-amber-400' : 'text-slate-700')}
/>
))}
</span>
)
}
function AbsorptionBadge({ score }: { score: number | null }) {
if (score === null || score === undefined) {
return (
<span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1 px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded border border-slate-700/40 bg-slate-800/50 text-slate-500 text-xs">
<Clock className="w-3 h-3" />
Not absorbed
</span>
)
}
const pct = Math.round(score * 100)
const isAbsorbed = pct >= 30
return (
<span className={clsx(
'inline-flex items-center gap-1 px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded border text-xs font-medium',
isAbsorbed
? 'text-blue-400 bg-blue-900/30 border-blue-700/40'
: 'text-slate-500 bg-slate-800/50 border-slate-700/40'
)}>
<CheckCircle className="w-3 h-3" />
{isAbsorbed ? `Absorbed ${pct}%` : `Low ${pct}%`}
</span>
)
}
function ReportCard({ report }: { report: InstitutionalReport }) {
const [expanded, setExpanded] = useState(false)
const isCot = report.report_type === 'cot'
const typeColor = isCot ? 'bg-purple-900/30 text-purple-300 border-purple-700/40' : 'bg-orange-900/30 text-orange-300 border-orange-700/40'
return (
<div className="bg-dark-800 border border-slate-700/40 rounded-lg overflow-hidden hover:border-slate-600/60 transition-colors">
{/* Header */}
<div className="p-4 flex items-start justify-between gap-3">
<div className="flex-1 min-w-0">
<div className="flex items-center gap-2 flex-wrap mb-1.5">
<span className={clsx('px-2 py-0.5 rounded border text-xs font-bold uppercase tracking-wider', typeColor)}>
{report.report_type}
</span>
<ImportanceStars n={report.importance} />
<span className="text-slate-500 text-xs">
{report.report_date}
</span>
<AbsorptionBadge score={report.absorbed_score} />
</div>
<div className="text-white font-medium text-sm truncate">{report.title}</div>
<div className="text-slate-500 text-xs mt-0.5">{report.source}</div>
</div>
<button
onClick={() => setExpanded(e => !e)}
className="text-xs text-slate-400 hover:text-white shrink-0 border border-slate-700/40 rounded px-2 py-1"
>
{expanded ? 'Collapse' : 'Expand'}
</button>
</div>
{/* Signal badges row */}
<div className="px-4 pb-3 flex flex-wrap gap-1.5">
<SignalBadge signal={report.signal_energy} label="Energy" />
<SignalBadge signal={report.signal_metals} label="Metals" />
<SignalBadge signal={report.signal_indices} label="Indices" />
<SignalBadge signal={report.signal_forex} label="Forex" />
</div>
{/* Key points preview (always visible) */}
{report.key_points?.length > 0 && (
<div className="px-4 pb-3">
<ul className="space-y-1">
{(expanded ? report.key_points : report.key_points.slice(0, 3)).map((kp, i) => {
const isExtreme = kp.includes('EXTREME')
return (
<li key={i} className={clsx(
'text-xs flex items-start gap-1.5',
isExtreme ? 'text-amber-300' : 'text-slate-300'
)}>
{isExtreme
? <AlertTriangle className="w-3 h-3 text-amber-400 shrink-0 mt-0.5" />
: <span className="w-3 text-center text-slate-600 shrink-0"></span>
}
{kp}
</li>
)
})}
{!expanded && report.key_points.length > 3 && (
<li className="text-xs text-slate-600">+{report.key_points.length - 3} more</li>
)}
</ul>
</div>
)}
{/* Expanded: trading implications + AI summary */}
{expanded && (
<div className="border-t border-slate-700/40 p-4 space-y-3">
{report.trading_implications && (
<div>
<div className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wider mb-1.5">
Trading Implications
</div>
<div className="bg-amber-900/10 border border-amber-700/30 rounded p-2.5">
{report.trading_implications.split(' | ').map((impl, i) => (
<p key={i} className="text-xs text-amber-200 leading-relaxed">{impl}</p>
))}
</div>
</div>
)}
{report.ai_summary && (
<div>
<div className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wider mb-1.5">
AI Summary
</div>
<p className="text-xs text-slate-400 leading-relaxed">{report.ai_summary}</p>
</div>
)}
{report.injected_in_cycle_id && (
<div className="text-xs text-slate-600">
Injected in cycle: <span className="font-mono">{report.injected_in_cycle_id.slice(0, 16)}</span>
</div>
)}
</div>
)}
</div>
)
}
export default function InstitutionalReports() {
const qc = useQueryClient()
const [filterType, setFilterType] = useState<string>('')
const [filterCategory, setFilterCategory] = useState<string>('')
const [filterImportance, setFilterImportance] = useState<number>(0)
const [filterDays, setFilterDays] = useState<number>(90)
const params = {
...(filterType ? { report_type: filterType } : {}),
...(filterCategory ? { category: filterCategory } : {}),
...(filterImportance ? { importance: filterImportance } : {}),
days: filterDays,
}
const { data: reports = [], isLoading, isFetching } = useInstitutionalReports(params)
const { data: stats } = useInstitutionalStats()
const refresh = useRefreshInstitutionalReports()
const handleRefresh = (type?: string) => {
refresh.mutate(type, {
onSuccess: () => {
qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['institutional-reports'] })
qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['institutional-stats'] })
},
})
}
return (
<div className="p-6 space-y-6">
{/* Header */}
<div className="flex items-start justify-between gap-4">
<div>
<h1 className="text-xl font-bold text-white">Institutional Reports</h1>
<p className="text-slate-400 text-sm mt-0.5">
CFTC COT (weekly) + EIA Petroleum (weekly) positioning & supply signals
</p>
</div>
<div className="flex gap-2">
<button
onClick={() => handleRefresh('cot')}
disabled={refresh.isPending}
className="flex items-center gap-1.5 px-3 py-1.5 text-xs bg-purple-900/40 text-purple-300 border border-purple-700/40 rounded hover:bg-purple-800/50 disabled:opacity-50"
>
<RefreshCw className={clsx('w-3.5 h-3.5', refresh.isPending && 'animate-spin')} />
Refresh COT
</button>
<button
onClick={() => handleRefresh('eia')}
disabled={refresh.isPending}
className="flex items-center gap-1.5 px-3 py-1.5 text-xs bg-orange-900/40 text-orange-300 border border-orange-700/40 rounded hover:bg-orange-800/50 disabled:opacity-50"
>
<RefreshCw className={clsx('w-3.5 h-3.5', refresh.isPending && 'animate-spin')} />
Refresh EIA
</button>
</div>
</div>
{/* Stats bar */}
{stats && (
<div className="grid grid-cols-2 sm:grid-cols-4 gap-3">
{[
{ label: 'Total reports', value: stats.total },
{ label: 'COT reports', value: stats.by_type?.cot ?? 0 },
{ label: 'EIA reports', value: stats.by_type?.eia ?? 0 },
{ label: 'Absorbed (>30%)', value: stats.absorbed_count },
].map(({ label, value }) => (
<div key={label} className="bg-dark-800 border border-slate-700/40 rounded p-3 text-center">
<div className="text-2xl font-bold text-white">{value}</div>
<div className="text-xs text-slate-500 mt-0.5">{label}</div>
</div>
))}
</div>
)}
{/* Latest dates */}
{stats && (stats.latest_cot || stats.latest_eia) && (
<div className="flex gap-4 text-xs text-slate-500">
{stats.latest_cot && <span>Latest COT: <span className="text-slate-300">{stats.latest_cot}</span></span>}
{stats.latest_eia && <span>Latest EIA: <span className="text-slate-300">{stats.latest_eia}</span></span>}
</div>
)}
{/* Filters */}
<div className="flex flex-wrap gap-3 bg-dark-800 border border-slate-700/40 rounded-lg p-3">
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
<span className="text-xs text-slate-500">Type:</span>
<div className="flex gap-1">
{['', 'cot', 'eia'].map(t => (
<button
key={t}
onClick={() => setFilterType(t)}
className={clsx(
'px-2.5 py-1 rounded text-xs font-medium border transition-colors',
filterType === t
? 'bg-blue-600 text-white border-blue-500'
: 'bg-dark-700 text-slate-400 border-slate-700/40 hover:border-slate-600'
)}
>
{t === '' ? 'All' : t.toUpperCase()}
</button>
))}
</div>
</div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
<span className="text-xs text-slate-500">Category:</span>
<div className="flex gap-1">
{['', 'energy', 'metals', 'equities', 'forex', 'multi'].map(c => (
<button
key={c}
onClick={() => setFilterCategory(c)}
className={clsx(
'px-2.5 py-1 rounded text-xs font-medium border transition-colors',
filterCategory === c
? 'bg-blue-600 text-white border-blue-500'
: 'bg-dark-700 text-slate-400 border-slate-700/40 hover:border-slate-600'
)}
>
{c === '' ? 'All' : c.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + c.slice(1)}
</button>
))}
</div>
</div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
<span className="text-xs text-slate-500">Min importance:</span>
<div className="flex gap-1">
{[0, 1, 2, 3].map(n => (
<button
key={n}
onClick={() => setFilterImportance(n)}
className={clsx(
'px-2.5 py-1 rounded text-xs font-medium border transition-colors',
filterImportance === n
? 'bg-blue-600 text-white border-blue-500'
: 'bg-dark-700 text-slate-400 border-slate-700/40 hover:border-slate-600'
)}
>
{n === 0 ? 'Any' : '★'.repeat(n)}
</button>
))}
</div>
</div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
<span className="text-xs text-slate-500">Period:</span>
<select
value={filterDays}
onChange={e => setFilterDays(Number(e.target.value))}
className="bg-dark-700 border border-slate-700/40 text-slate-300 text-xs rounded px-2 py-1"
>
{[30, 60, 90, 180, 365].map(d => (
<option key={d} value={d}>{d}d</option>
))}
</select>
</div>
</div>
{/* Report list */}
{isLoading || isFetching ? (
<div className="text-center py-12 text-slate-500">
<RefreshCw className="w-6 h-6 animate-spin mx-auto mb-2" />
Loading reports
</div>
) : reports.length === 0 ? (
<div className="text-center py-16 space-y-3">
<div className="text-slate-600 text-4xl">📋</div>
<div className="text-slate-400 font-medium">No institutional reports yet</div>
<p className="text-slate-600 text-sm max-w-sm mx-auto">
Click <strong className="text-slate-400">Refresh COT</strong> to fetch the latest CFTC positioning data,
or configure your EIA API key in <strong className="text-slate-400">Configuration</strong> to enable petroleum reports.
</p>
</div>
) : (
<div className="space-y-3">
<div className="text-xs text-slate-500">{reports.length} report{reports.length > 1 ? 's' : ''}</div>
{(reports as InstitutionalReport[]).map(r => (
<ReportCard key={r.id} report={r} />
))}
</div>
)}
</div>
)
}