feat: institutional reports — CFTC COT + EIA petroleum weekly

- New institutional_reports table (DB) with importance, signals per asset class, key points, absorption tracking
- cot_fetcher.py: CFTC Socrata API (6dca-aqww), 7 instruments (Gold/Silver/Copper/WTI/NatGas/SP500/EURUSD), net positioning + 52-week z-score
- eia_fetcher.py: EIA API v2, 4 series (crude/Cushing/gasoline/distillates), WoW surprise detection
- institutional.py router: GET /reports, GET /reports/{id}, POST /refresh, GET /stats
- institutional_scheduler.py: weekly auto-fetch (COT Saturdays, EIA Wednesday afternoons)
- ai_analyzer.py: build_institutional_block() + institutional_block param injected into AI scoring prompt
- auto_cycle.py: inject institutional block into suggestion + scoring, absorption tracking via keyword overlap after each cycle commentary
- InstitutionalReports.tsx: full page with filter bar (type/category/importance/period), cards with key point bullets, EXTREME alerts highlighted, signal badges, absorption badge, trading implications, expandable detail

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/services/auto_cycle.py

@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Cycle steps:
 import logging
 import threading
 import uuid
-from datetime import datetime
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta
 from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
@@ -551,6 +551,16 @@ def run_cycle_once(trigger: str = "auto") -> Dict[str, Any]:
             except Exception as _cbe:
                 logger.warning(f"[Cycle] Convergence block build failed (non-blocking): {_cbe}")
 
+            # ── Build institutional reports block ──────────────────────────
+            _institutional_block = ""
+            try:
+                from services.ai_analyzer import build_institutional_block
+                _institutional_block = build_institutional_block(days=7)
+                if _institutional_block:
+                    logger.info(f"[Cycle {run_id[:16]}] Institutional block injected")
+            except Exception as _ibe:
+                logger.warning(f"[Cycle] Institutional block failed (non-blocking): {_ibe}")
+
             suggestions = suggest_patterns_from_market_context(
                 news, quotes, calendar, macro_regime=macro_regime, geo_score=geo_score_obj,
                 portfolio_lessons=portfolio_lessons,
@@ -705,6 +715,7 @@ def run_cycle_once(trigger: str = "auto") -> Dict[str, Any]:
                 fred_block=_fred_block,
                 price_discovery_block=_price_discovery_block,
                 portfolio_context_block=_portfolio_block,
+                institutional_block=_institutional_block,
                 run_id=run_id,
             )
             scored_with_id = [s for s in scored if s.get("pattern_id")]
@@ -991,6 +1002,56 @@ def run_cycle_once(trigger: str = "auto") -> Dict[str, Any]:
         _current_status["last_run_at"] = datetime.utcnow().isoformat()
         logger.info(f"[Cycle {run_id[:16]}] Completed — {added_count} new patterns, {len(scored)} scored")
 
+        # ── Step 6.1: Institutional report absorption tracking ───────────────
+        try:
+            from services.database import get_conn as _get_conn
+            import json as _json
+            _commentary_text = ""
+            if commentary:
+                try:
+                    _c = _json.loads(commentary) if isinstance(commentary, str) else commentary
+                    _commentary_text = " ".join([
+                        str(_c.get("narrative", "")),
+                        str(_c.get("key_catalyst", "")),
+                        " ".join(str(x) for x in (_c.get("risks", []) or [])),
+                    ]).lower()
+                except Exception:
+                    _commentary_text = str(commentary).lower()
+
+            if _commentary_text:
+                _conn = _get_conn()
+                try:
+                    cutoff = (datetime.utcnow() - timedelta(days=14)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+                    _inst_rows = _conn.execute(
+                        "SELECT id, key_points_json FROM institutional_reports "
+                        "WHERE report_date >= ? AND (absorbed_score IS NULL OR absorbed_score = 0)",
+                        (cutoff,),
+                    ).fetchall()
+                    for _ir in _inst_rows:
+                        try:
+                            _kps = _json.loads(_ir["key_points_json"] or "[]")
+                            _kp_words = set(
+                                w for kp in _kps for w in kp.lower().split()
+                                if len(w) > 4
+                            )
+                            if not _kp_words:
+                                continue
+                            _overlap = sum(1 for w in _kp_words if w in _commentary_text)
+                            _score = min(1.0, _overlap / max(len(_kp_words), 1))
+                            if _score > 0:
+                                _conn.execute(
+                                    "UPDATE institutional_reports SET absorbed_score=?, injected_in_cycle_id=? WHERE id=?",
+                                    (round(_score, 3), run_id, _ir["id"]),
+                                )
+                        except Exception:
+                            pass
+                    _conn.commit()
+                    logger.info(f"[Cycle {run_id[:16]}] Absorption tracked for {len(_inst_rows)} institutional reports")
+                finally:
+                    _conn.close()
+        except Exception as _abs_e:
+            logger.warning(f"[Cycle] Absorption tracking failed (non-blocking): {_abs_e}")
+
         # ── Step 6.5: Generate full cycle report ─────────────────────────────
         try:
             _cycle_report = _generate_cycle_report(