feat: instrument analysis

frontend/src/pages/InstrumentDashboard.tsx

@@ -760,6 +760,20 @@ function CausalFrise({
   const [activeChip, setActiveChip] = useState<{
     tmpl: CausalTemplate; ev: SnapshotEvent; chipX: number; chipY: number
   } | null>(null)
+  const [popupScore, setPopupScore] = useState<number | null | 'loading'>('loading')
+
+  // Fetch activation_score live when popup opens for a specific event
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const evId = activeChip?.ev.id
+    if (!evId) { setPopupScore(null); return }
+    setPopupScore('loading')
+    api.get(`/causal-lab/analyses?market_event_id=${evId}&limit=1`)
+      .then(r => {
+        const score = r.data?.[0]?.activation_score
+        setPopupScore(score != null ? Math.round(score * 100) : null)
+      })
+      .catch(() => setPopupScore(null))
+  }, [activeChip?.ev.id])
 
   useEffect(() => {
     const el = containerRef.current; if (!el) return
@@ -969,25 +983,24 @@ function CausalFrise({
               )}
             </div>
 
-            {/* Précision — causalScores (API fraîche) avec fallback sur activation_score du snapshot */}
-            {(() => {
-              const snapScore = ev.activation_score != null ? Math.round(ev.activation_score * 100) : null
-              const s = ev.id != null ? (causalScores[ev.id] ?? snapScore) : snapScore
-              if (s == null) return null
-              const barCls = s >= 70 ? 'bg-emerald-500' : s >= 40 ? 'bg-amber-500' : 'bg-red-500'
-              const txtCls = s >= 70 ? 'text-emerald-400' : s >= 40 ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-red-400'
+            {/* Précision — fetch live depuis causal_event_analyses au moment du clic */}
+            {popupScore === 'loading' ? (
+              <div className="mb-2 text-[9px] text-slate-600 italic">Chargement score…</div>
+            ) : popupScore != null ? (() => {
+              const barCls = popupScore >= 70 ? 'bg-emerald-500' : popupScore >= 40 ? 'bg-amber-500' : 'bg-red-500'
+              const txtCls = popupScore >= 70 ? 'text-emerald-400' : popupScore >= 40 ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-red-400'
               return (
                 <div className="mb-2">
                   <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-[9px] text-slate-600 mb-0.5">
                     <span>Précision prédiction</span>
-                    <span className={txtCls}>{s}%</span>
+                    <span className={txtCls}>{popupScore}%</span>
                   </div>
                   <div className="h-1 bg-slate-800 rounded-full overflow-hidden">
-                    <div className={clsx('h-full rounded-full', barCls)} style={{ width: `${s}%` }} />
+                    <div className={clsx('h-full rounded-full', barCls)} style={{ width: `${popupScore}%` }} />
                   </div>
                 </div>
               )
-            })()}
+            })() : null}
 
             <div className="flex gap-1.5">
               <button