feat: causal lab

backend/routers/causal_lab.py

@@ -853,9 +853,10 @@ def analyze_event(body: AnalyzeRequest):
 
 @router.get("/api/causal-lab/analyses")
 def list_analyses(
-    template_id:    int = Query(0),
-    instrument:     str = Query(""),
-    limit:          int = Query(100, le=500),
+    template_id:      int = Query(0),
+    market_event_id:  int = Query(0),
+    instrument:       str = Query(""),
+    limit:            int = Query(100, le=500),
 ):
     try:
         from services.database import get_conn
@@ -865,6 +866,8 @@ def list_analyses(
         conditions = ["1=1"]
         if template_id:
             conditions.append(f"a.template_id = {template_id}")
+        if market_event_id:
+            conditions.append(f"a.market_event_id = {market_event_id}")
         if instrument:
             conditions.append(f"a.instrument = '{instrument}'")
         where = " AND ".join(conditions)

frontend/src/pages/CausalLab.tsx

@@ -53,8 +53,8 @@ interface Template {
 }
 interface MarketEvent {
   id: number; name: string; category: string; sub_type: string
-  start_date: string; level: string; impact_score: number
-  market_impact: string; affected_assets: string
+  start_date: string; end_date: string | null; level: string; created_at: string | null
+  impact_score: number; market_impact: string; affected_assets: string
   actual_value: number | null; expected_value: number | null; surprise_pct: number | null
   analysis_id: number | null; template_id: number | null; activation_score: number | null
 }
@@ -1318,7 +1318,7 @@ function TabEditor() {
 
 // ── Tab: Analyser ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-function TabAnalyze() {
+function TabAnalyze({ initialEventId }: { initialEventId?: number | null }) {
   const [events, setEvents]       = useState<MarketEvent[]>([])
   const [templates, setTemplates] = useState<Template[]>([])
   const [selEvent, setSelEvent]   = useState<MarketEvent | null>(null)
@@ -1340,6 +1340,12 @@ function TabAnalyze() {
     ]).then(([evs, tmps]) => { setEvents(evs); setTemplates(tmps) })
   }, [catF, q])
 
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (!initialEventId || !events.length || selEvent) return
+    const found = events.find(e => e.id === initialEventId)
+    if (found) setSelEvent(found)
+  }, [events, initialEventId])
+
   const currentTemplate = templates.find(t => t.id === selTmpl)
   const manualNodes = currentTemplate?.graph_json?.input_mapping
     ? Object.entries(currentTemplate.graph_json.input_mapping).filter(([, c]) =>
@@ -1389,7 +1395,12 @@ function TabAnalyze() {
           <select value={catF} onChange={e => setCatF(e.target.value)}
             className="bg-dark-700 border border-slate-700 rounded px-2 py-1.5 text-xs text-slate-300">
             <option value="">Tous</option>
-            {Object.entries(CAT_LABELS).map(([k, v]) => <option key={k} value={k}>{v}</option>)}
+            <option value="event_calendar">Calendrier éco</option>
+            <option value="fundamental">Fondamental</option>
+            <option value="geopolitical">Géopolitique</option>
+            <option value="report">Report</option>
+            <option value="sentiment">Sentiment</option>
+            <option value="technical">Technique</option>
           </select>
         </div>
 
@@ -1686,7 +1697,8 @@ const TABS = [
 export default function CausalLab() {
   const [searchParams]    = useSearchParams()
   const initialTemplateId = searchParams.get('template') ? parseInt(searchParams.get('template')!) : null
-  const [tab, setTab]     = useState('library')
+  const initialEventId    = searchParams.get('event')    ? parseInt(searchParams.get('event')!)    : null
+  const [tab, setTab]     = useState(initialEventId ? 'analyze' : 'library')
 
   return (
     <div className="p-6 min-h-screen">
@@ -1714,7 +1726,7 @@ export default function CausalLab() {
       <div className="bg-dark-800 rounded-xl p-5 border border-slate-700/30">
         {tab === 'library' && <TabLibrary initialTemplateId={initialTemplateId} />}
         {tab === 'editor'  && <TabEditor />}
-        {tab === 'analyze' && <TabAnalyze />}
+        {tab === 'analyze' && <TabAnalyze initialEventId={initialEventId} />}
         {tab === 'calib'   && <TabCalibration />}
       </div>
     </div>

frontend/src/pages/InstrumentDashboard.tsx

@@ -140,15 +140,16 @@ function isActiveAt(ev: SnapshotEvent, selectedDate: string | null): boolean {
 // ── Causal graph config ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 // Maps snapshot event category → causal template category
-const EVENT_TO_CAUSAL_CAT: Record<string, string> = {
-  macro_us:       'macro_us',
-  macro_eu:       'macro_eu',
-  geopolitical:   'geopolitical',
-  report:         'report',
-  sentiment:      'sentiment',
-  commodity:      'commodity',
-  fundamental:    'macro_us',
-  event_calendar: 'macro_us',
+// market_events.category → causal_graph_templates.category
+// event_calendar & fundamental cover both US and EU; geopolitical/report/sentiment map 1-to-1
+const EVENT_TO_CAUSAL_CAT: Record<string, string[]> = {
+  event_calendar: ['macro_us', 'macro_eu'],
+  fundamental:    ['macro_us', 'macro_eu'],
+  geopolitical:   ['geopolitical'],
+  report:         ['report'],
+  sentiment:      ['sentiment'],
+  commodity:      ['commodity'],
+  technical:      [],
 }
 
 // Maps instrument dashboard category → causal lab instrument keys

frontend/src/pages/MarketEvents.tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 import { useState, useEffect, useCallback, useRef } from 'react'
-import { useSearchParams } from 'react-router-dom'
+import { useSearchParams, useNavigate } from 'react-router-dom'
 import {
   Search, RefreshCw, Plus, Trash2, Edit3, Sparkles, ExternalLink,
   ChevronDown, ChevronUp, Loader2, CheckCircle, AlertCircle, X,
@@ -51,6 +51,24 @@ interface MarketEvent {
   evaluated?: boolean
 }
 
+interface CausalAnalysis {
+  id: number
+  market_event_id: number
+  template_id: number
+  template_name: string
+  instrument: string
+  activation_score: number | null
+  analyzed_at: string
+  prediction_json: Record<string, number>
+}
+
+interface TemplateRef {
+  id: number
+  name: string
+  category: string
+  instruments: string[]
+}
+
 // ── Constants ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 const CAT_COLORS: Record<string, string> = {
@@ -304,14 +322,22 @@ function EventDetail({
   onUpdated: (ev: MarketEvent) => void
   onDeleted: (id: number) => void
 }) {
+  const navigate = useNavigate()
   const [detail, setDetail]       = useState<MarketEvent>(event)
-  const [evaluating, setEval]     = useState(false)
-  const [evalMsg, setEvalMsg]     = useState<string | null>(null)
   const [editing, setEditing]     = useState(false)
   const [editData, setEditData]   = useState<Partial<MarketEvent>>({})
   const [saving, setSaving]       = useState(false)
   const [allCats, setAllCats]     = useState<EventCategory[]>([])
   const [catSaving, setCatSaving] = useState(false)
+  const [analyses, setAnalyses]   = useState<CausalAnalysis[]>([])
+  // Inline analysis
+  const [templates, setTemplates]   = useState<TemplateRef[]>([])
+  const [selTmpl, setSelTmpl]       = useState(0)
+  const [instrument, setInstrument] = useState('EURUSD')
+  const [loadingRec, setLoadingRec] = useState(false)
+  const [loadingAn,  setLoadingAn]  = useState(false)
+  const [recMsg, setRecMsg]         = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [anResult, setAnResult]     = useState<{ score: number | null; preds: Record<string, number> } | null>(null)
 
   const loadDetail = useCallback(async () => {
     const r = await fetch(`/api/market-events/${event.id}`)
@@ -321,7 +347,16 @@ function EventDetail({
     }
   }, [event.id])
 
-  useEffect(() => { loadDetail() }, [loadDetail])
+  const loadAnalyses = useCallback(async () => {
+    const r = await fetch(`/api/causal-lab/analyses?market_event_id=${event.id}&limit=20`)
+    if (r.ok) setAnalyses(await r.json())
+  }, [event.id])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    loadDetail()
+    loadAnalyses()
+    fetch('/api/causal-lab/templates').then(r => r.json()).then(d => setTemplates(Array.isArray(d) ? d : [])).catch(() => {})
+  }, [loadDetail, loadAnalyses])
   useEffect(() => {
     fetch('/api/impact/categories')
       .then(r => r.json())
@@ -351,23 +386,6 @@ function EventDetail({
     }
   }
 
-  const evaluate = async (force = false) => {
-    setEval(true)
-    setEvalMsg(null)
-    try {
-      const r = await fetch(`/api/market-events/${event.id}/evaluate?force=${force}`, { method: 'POST' })
-      const d = await r.json()
-      if (!r.ok) throw new Error(d.detail || r.statusText)
-      const catInfo = d.matched_category ? ` · catégorie: ${d.matched_category}` : ''
-      setEvalMsg(`✓ ${d.n_instruments} instruments évalués${catInfo}`)
-      await loadDetail()
-    } catch (e: any) {
-      setEvalMsg(`✗ ${e.message}`)
-    } finally {
-      setEval(false)
-    }
-  }
-
   const saveEdit = async () => {
     setSaving(true)
     const payload = { ...detail, ...editData, source_refs: detail.source_refs ?? [] }
@@ -391,7 +409,42 @@ function EventDetail({
     onClose()
   }
 
-  const impacts = detail.impacts || []
+  const recommendTemplate = async () => {
+    setLoadingRec(true); setRecMsg(null); setAnResult(null)
+    try {
+      const r = await fetch('/api/causal-lab/recommend', {
+        method: 'POST', headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+        body: JSON.stringify({ market_event_id: detail.id }),
+      })
+      const d = await r.json()
+      if (!r.ok) throw new Error(d.detail || r.statusText)
+      const rec = d.recommendation
+      if (rec?.template_id) {
+        setSelTmpl(rec.template_id)
+        setRecMsg(`✓ ${rec.template_name}${rec.confidence ? ` (${Math.round(rec.confidence * 100)}%)` : ''}`)
+      } else {
+        setRecMsg('Aucun template correspondant — créez-en un dans l\'Editeur')
+      }
+    } catch (e: any) { setRecMsg(`✗ ${e.message}`) }
+    finally { setLoadingRec(false) }
+  }
+
+  const runAnalysis = async () => {
+    if (!selTmpl) return
+    setLoadingAn(true); setAnResult(null)
+    try {
+      const r = await fetch('/api/causal-lab/analyze', {
+        method: 'POST', headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
+        body: JSON.stringify({ market_event_id: detail.id, template_id: selTmpl, instrument, inputs: {}, coef_overrides: {} }),
+      })
+      const d = await r.json()
+      if (!r.ok) throw new Error(d.detail || r.statusText)
+      setAnResult({ score: d.activation?.score ?? null, preds: d.node_values ?? {} })
+      await loadAnalyses()
+    } catch (e: any) { setAnResult({ score: null, preds: { error: -1 } }) }
+    finally { setLoadingAn(false) }
+  }
+
   const evalScore = detail.impact_score
 
   return (
@@ -606,69 +659,150 @@ function EventDetail({
           )}
         </div>
 
-        {/* Instrument impacts */}
-        <div>
-          <div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-2">
-            <div className="text-xs text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-wide">
-              Impacts instruments
-              <span className="text-slate-600 ml-1.5 normal-case">({impacts.length})</span>
-            </div>
-            <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
-              {evalMsg && (
-                <span className={clsx('text-xs', evalMsg.startsWith('✓') ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400')}>
-                  {evalMsg}
-                </span>
-              )}
-              <button
-                onClick={() => evaluate(impacts.length > 0)}
-                disabled={evaluating}
-                className="flex items-center gap-1.5 text-xs bg-blue-700/40 hover:bg-blue-700/60 border border-blue-700/50 text-blue-300 rounded px-3 py-1"
-              >
-                {evaluating ? <Loader2 size={11} className="animate-spin" /> : <Sparkles size={11} />}
-                {impacts.length > 0 ? 'Ré-analyser' : 'Analyser IA'}
-              </button>
-            </div>
+        {/* Causal graphs */}
+        <div className="space-y-3">
+          <div className="text-xs text-slate-500 uppercase tracking-wide">
+            Graphes causaux
+            {analyses.length > 0 && <span className="text-slate-600 ml-1.5 normal-case">({analyses.length})</span>}
           </div>
 
-          {impacts.length === 0 ? (
-            <div className="text-xs text-slate-600 italic py-3 px-3 bg-slate-800/30 rounded-lg">
-              Aucun impact évalué — cliquez sur "Analyser IA" pour lancer l'évaluation.
+          {/* Existing analyses */}
+          {analyses.length > 0 && (
+            <div className="space-y-1.5">
+              {analyses.map(a => {
+                const score = a.activation_score != null ? Math.round(a.activation_score * 100) : null
+                const topPreds = Object.entries(a.prediction_json || {})
+                  .filter(([k]) => !k.includes('error'))
+                  .sort(([, v1], [, v2]) => Math.abs(v2) - Math.abs(v1))
+                  .slice(0, 3)
+                return (
+                  <button
+                    key={a.id}
+                    onClick={() => navigate(`/causal-lab?template=${a.template_id}`)}
+                    className="w-full text-left bg-slate-800/40 hover:bg-slate-800/70 border border-slate-700/40 hover:border-blue-700/40 rounded-lg px-3 py-2 transition-colors"
+                  >
+                    <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
+                      <span className="text-xs font-medium text-slate-200 truncate">{a.template_name}</span>
+                      {score != null && (
+                        <span className={clsx(
+                          'text-xs font-mono px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded shrink-0 ml-2',
+                          score >= 70 ? 'bg-emerald-500/20 text-emerald-400' :
+                          score >= 40 ? 'bg-amber-500/20 text-amber-400' :
+                                        'bg-slate-700/40 text-slate-400'
+                        )}>{score}%</span>
+                      )}
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="flex items-center gap-2 flex-wrap mt-0.5">
+                      <span className="text-xs text-slate-500">{a.instrument}</span>
+                      {topPreds.map(([k, v]) => (
+                        <span key={k} className={clsx('text-xs font-mono', v > 0 ? 'text-emerald-500' : 'text-red-500')}>
+                          {k}: {v > 0 ? '+' : ''}{Math.round(v)}
+                        </span>
+                      ))}
+                    </div>
+                  </button>
+                )
+              })}
             </div>
-          ) : (
-            <div className="bg-slate-800/30 rounded-lg overflow-hidden">
-              {/* Header */}
-              <div className="grid text-xs text-slate-600 px-3 py-1.5 border-b border-slate-800 bg-slate-800/50"
-                style={{ gridTemplateColumns: '6rem 1.5rem 8rem 2.5rem 1fr 3rem 3rem 1.5rem 1.5rem' }}>
-                <span>Instrument</span>
-                <span></span>
-                <span>Score</span>
-                <span>Conf.</span>
-                <span>Rationale</span>
-                <span></span>
-                <span></span>
-                <span></span>
-                <span></span>
+          )}
+
+          {/* Inline analysis panel */}
+          <div className="bg-slate-800/30 rounded-lg border border-slate-700/30 p-3 space-y-2">
+            <div className="text-xs text-slate-400 font-medium">
+              {analyses.length === 0 ? 'Aucun graphe — lancez une analyse' : 'Nouvelle analyse'}
+            </div>
+
+            {/* AI recommend + template picker */}
+            <div className="flex gap-1.5">
+              <button
+                onClick={recommendTemplate}
+                disabled={loadingRec}
+                className="flex items-center gap-1 text-xs bg-purple-700/40 hover:bg-purple-700/60 border border-purple-700/40 text-purple-300 rounded px-2 py-1.5 shrink-0 disabled:opacity-50"
+              >
+                {loadingRec ? <Loader2 size={10} className="animate-spin" /> : <Sparkles size={10} />}
+                IA
+              </button>
+              <select
+                value={selTmpl}
+                onChange={e => { setSelTmpl(Number(e.target.value)); setRecMsg(null); setAnResult(null) }}
+                className="flex-1 bg-dark-900 border border-slate-700 rounded px-2 py-1.5 text-xs text-slate-300 min-w-0"
+              >
+                <option value={0}>— Choisir un template —</option>
+                {templates.map(t => <option key={t.id} value={t.id}>{t.name}</option>)}
+              </select>
+            </div>
+
+            {recMsg && (
+              <div className={clsx('text-xs px-2 py-1 rounded', recMsg.startsWith('✓') ? 'text-emerald-400 bg-emerald-900/20' : recMsg.startsWith('✗') ? 'text-red-400 bg-red-900/20' : 'text-amber-400 bg-amber-900/20')}>
+                {recMsg}
               </div>
-              {impacts
-                .slice()
-                .sort((a, b) => (b.adjusted_score ?? b.impact_score) - (a.adjusted_score ?? a.impact_score))
-                .map(imp => (
-                  <ImpactRow
-                    key={imp.id}
-                    imp={imp}
-                    eventId={detail.id}
-                    onUpdated={loadDetail}
-                    onDeleted={loadDetail}
-                  />
+            )}
+
+            {/* Instrument + analyze */}
+            <div className="flex gap-1.5">
+              <select
+                value={instrument}
+                onChange={e => setInstrument(e.target.value)}
+                className="bg-dark-900 border border-slate-700 rounded px-2 py-1.5 text-xs text-slate-300"
+              >
+                {['EURUSD', 'XAUUSD', 'SP500', 'BRENT', 'US10Y', 'EU10Y'].map(i => (
+                  <option key={i} value={i}>{i}</option>
                 ))}
-              <AddInstrumentPanel eventId={detail.id} onAdded={loadDetail} />
+              </select>
+              <button
+                onClick={runAnalysis}
+                disabled={!selTmpl || loadingAn}
+                className="flex-1 flex items-center justify-center gap-1.5 text-xs bg-blue-700/50 hover:bg-blue-700/70 border border-blue-700/40 text-blue-200 rounded px-3 py-1.5 disabled:opacity-40"
+              >
+                {loadingAn ? <Loader2 size={10} className="animate-spin" /> : null}
+                {loadingAn ? 'Analyse…' : 'Lancer'}
+              </button>
+              <button
+                onClick={() => navigate(`/causal-lab?template=${selTmpl || ''}`)}
+                className="text-xs text-slate-500 hover:text-blue-400 px-2 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-slate-700/30 transition-colors"
+                title="Ouvrir dans CausalLab"
+              >
+                <ExternalLink size={12} />
+              </button>
             </div>
-          )}
-          {impacts.length === 0 && (
-            <div className="mt-2">
-              <AddInstrumentPanel eventId={detail.id} onAdded={loadDetail} />
-            </div>
-          )}
+
+            {/* Inline result */}
+            {anResult && (
+              <div className="bg-slate-900/60 rounded p-2 space-y-1">
+                <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                  <span className="text-xs text-slate-500">Activation</span>
+                  {anResult.score != null ? (
+                    <span className={clsx(
+                      'text-xs font-mono font-bold',
+                      anResult.score >= 0.7 ? 'text-emerald-400' :
+                      anResult.score >= 0.4 ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-red-400'
+                    )}>{Math.round(anResult.score * 100)}%</span>
+                  ) : <span className="text-xs text-red-400">Erreur</span>}
+                </div>
+                {Object.entries(anResult.preds)
+                  .filter(([k]) => !k.includes('error'))
+                  .sort(([, a], [, b]) => Math.abs(b) - Math.abs(a))
+                  .slice(0, 4)
+                  .map(([k, v]) => (
+                    <div key={k} className="flex justify-between items-center">
+                      <span className="text-xs text-slate-500 truncate">{k}</span>
+                      <span className={clsx('text-xs font-mono', v > 0 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400')}>
+                        {v > 0 ? '+' : ''}{Math.round(v)} pip
+                      </span>
+                    </div>
+                  ))}
+              </div>
+            )}
+
+            {templates.length === 0 && (
+              <p className="text-xs text-slate-600 italic">
+                Aucun template disponible —{' '}
+                <button onClick={() => navigate('/causal-lab')} className="text-blue-500 hover:text-blue-400 underline">
+                  créer dans CausalLab
+                </button>
+              </p>
+            )}
+          </div>
         </div>
       </div>
     </div>