feat: instrument analysis
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@@ -544,10 +544,11 @@ def _get_relevant_events(
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(SELECT GROUP_CONCAT(DISTINCT a.instrument)
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FROM causal_event_analyses a
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WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id) AS analyzed_instruments,
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(SELECT a.template_id FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_template_id,
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(SELECT a.id FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS analysis_id,
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(SELECT a.prediction_json FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_prediction_json,
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(SELECT a.actual_json FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_actual_json
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(SELECT a.template_id FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_template_id,
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(SELECT a.id FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS analysis_id,
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(SELECT a.prediction_json FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_prediction_json,
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(SELECT a.actual_json FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_actual_json,
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(SELECT a.activation_score FROM causal_event_analyses a WHERE a.market_event_id = e.id ORDER BY a.id DESC LIMIT 1) AS cea_activation_score
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FROM market_events e
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ORDER BY e.start_date DESC
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""").fetchall()
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@@ -556,8 +557,9 @@ def _get_relevant_events(
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# any collision with an e.* column named template_id
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all_events = [
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{**dict(r), "template_id": r["cea_template_id"],
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"prediction_json": r["cea_prediction_json"],
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"actual_json": r["cea_actual_json"]}
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"prediction_json": r["cea_prediction_json"],
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"actual_json": r["cea_actual_json"],
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"activation_score": r["cea_activation_score"]}
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for r in rows
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]
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except Exception as e:
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@@ -626,6 +628,7 @@ def _get_relevant_events(
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"absorption_pct": ev.get("absorption_pct"),
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"prediction_json": ev.get("prediction_json") or None,
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"actual_json": ev.get("actual_json") or None,
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"activation_score": ev.get("activation_score"),
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})
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# Sort by start_date asc for timeline display, cap at 30
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@@ -42,8 +42,9 @@ interface SnapshotEvent {
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category: string; sub_type?: string; description: string; impact_score: number
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expected_value?: string | null; actual_value?: string | null
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surprise_pct?: number | null; unit?: string | null; absorption_pct?: number | null
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prediction_json?: string | null // JSON: {node_id: pips} from causal_event_analyses
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actual_json?: string | null // JSON: {instrument: pips} from causal_event_analyses
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prediction_json?: string | null // JSON: {node_id: pips} from causal_event_analyses
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actual_json?: string | null // JSON: {instrument: pips} from causal_event_analyses
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activation_score?: number | null // stored directional accuracy from causal_event_analyses
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}
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interface RegimeSignals {
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@@ -704,6 +705,9 @@ function templateAbsorptionDays(tmpl: CausalTemplate): number {
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/** Score 0-100 measuring how well the graph predicted actual pips for an instrument. */
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function comprehensionScore(ev: SnapshotEvent, tmpl: CausalTemplate, instrument: string): number | null {
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// Prefer the stored activation_score from causal_event_analyses (consistent with MarketEvents panel)
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if (ev.activation_score != null) return Math.round(ev.activation_score * 100)
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if (!ev.prediction_json || !ev.actual_json) return null
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try {
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const preds: Record<string, number> = JSON.parse(ev.prediction_json)
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@@ -711,7 +715,6 @@ function comprehensionScore(ev: SnapshotEvent, tmpl: CausalTemplate, instrument:
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const actual = actuals[instrument] ?? actuals[instrument.toUpperCase()] ?? actuals[instrument.toLowerCase()]
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if (actual == null) return null
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// Find the output node for this instrument (built-in templates use "output", auto-generated use "market_asset")
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const outputNode = tmpl.graph_json.nodes.find(n =>
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(n.type === 'market_asset' || n.type === 'output') && n.instrument?.toUpperCase() === instrument.toUpperCase()
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)
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