feat: regime system — Find Matching + By Regime view

- Pattern Lab: "Find Matching" button per pattern uses GPT-4o-mini to classify against library (merge_as_instance / counter_scenario / new_pattern); shows match badge + confidence + suggested #regime_tag; conditional action buttons (Merge / Save counter / Save new)
- save_pattern_from_run handles action='instance' (appends to historical_instances + updates stats), action='counter' (new pattern with counter_of link, tags parent regime_tag), action='new' (unchanged + regime_tag support)
- useApi.ts: extended useSaveLabPattern type + new useFindMatchingPattern mutation + MatchResult export type
- DB migrations: regime_tag + counter_of columns on custom_patterns
- PatternExplorer: new "By Regime" view groups saved patterns by regime_tag; RegimeCard shows historical instances, hit rate, counter-of link (orange); untagged group at bottom

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/routers/pattern_lab.py

@@ -37,6 +37,16 @@ class SavePatternRequest(BaseModel):
     category: Optional[str] = None
     signal_direction: Optional[str] = None
     asset_class: Optional[str] = "indices"
+    # Regime architecture
+    action: Optional[str] = "new"        # "new" | "instance" | "counter"
+    target_id: Optional[str] = None      # existing pattern id for instance/counter
+    regime_tag: Optional[str] = None     # short generic label (e.g. "Health Crisis")
+    event_name: Optional[str] = None     # human-readable event for historical_instance
+
+
+class FindMatchingRequest(BaseModel):
+    run_id: str
+    pattern_index: int
 
 
 class InstrumentScanRequest(BaseModel):
@@ -260,6 +270,110 @@ def evaluate_instrument_run(run_id: str):
     return {"run_id": run_id, "outcomes": outcomes}
 
 
+@router.post("/find-matching")
+async def find_matching_pattern(req: FindMatchingRequest):
+    """Ask GPT-4o-mini if this lab pattern matches / counter-scenario an existing library pattern."""
+    from services.database import get_custom_patterns
+    from openai import AsyncOpenAI
+
+    openai_key = get_config("openai_api_key") or ""
+    if not openai_key:
+        raise HTTPException(400, "OpenAI API key not configured")
+
+    run = _get_run(req.run_id)
+    ai_result = json.loads(run.get("ai_result") or "{}")
+    patterns  = ai_result.get("patterns", [])
+    if req.pattern_index >= len(patterns):
+        raise HTTPException(400, "pattern_index out of range")
+
+    pat = patterns[req.pattern_index]
+
+    # Outcome for this pattern if evaluated
+    outcome_list: list = []
+    if run.get("outcome"):
+        try:
+            outcome_list = json.loads(run["outcome"]) if isinstance(run["outcome"], str) else run["outcome"]
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+    outcome = next((o for o in outcome_list if o.get("pattern_name") == pat.get("name")), None)
+
+    # Build compact library (id, name, category, underlying, direction, description, regime_tag)
+    library = get_custom_patterns()
+    if not library:
+        return {
+            "recommendation": "new_pattern", "match_id": None, "match_name": None,
+            "confidence": 100, "reasoning": "Library is empty — save as new pattern.",
+            "suggested_regime_tag": pat.get("category", ""),
+        }
+
+    lib_compact = []
+    for p in library:
+        trades = p.get("suggested_trades") or []
+        underlying = trades[0].get("underlying", "") if trades else ""
+        lib_compact.append({
+            "id": p["id"],
+            "name": p["name"],
+            "regime_tag": p.get("regime_tag") or "",
+            "category": p.get("category") or "",
+            "underlying": underlying,
+            "signal_direction": p.get("signal_direction") or "",
+            "description": (p.get("description") or "")[:150],
+        })
+
+    outcome_str = "not evaluated"
+    if outcome:
+        ht = outcome.get("hit_type") or ("FULL HIT" if outcome.get("hit") else "MISS")
+        outcome_str = f"{ht.upper()} — actual move {outcome.get('actual_move_pct',0):+.1f}%"
+
+    prompt = f"""You are a quantitative macro pattern analyst. Determine if a new backtest pattern matches an existing library pattern.
+
+## NEW PATTERN (from Pattern Lab backtest)
+Name: {pat.get('name')}
+Category: {pat.get('category')}
+Description: {pat.get('description')}
+Underlying: {pat.get('underlying')}
+Strategy: {pat.get('strategy')}
+Signal direction: {pat.get('signal_direction')} ({pat.get('expected_direction')})
+Expected move: {pat.get('expected_direction','?')}{pat.get('expected_move_pct',0)}%
+Backtest outcome: {outcome_str}
+
+## EXISTING LIBRARY PATTERNS
+{json.dumps(lib_compact, ensure_ascii=False)}
+
+## DECISION RULES
+**merge_as_instance**: Same macro REGIME + same INSTRUMENT + same DIRECTION (both bullish, or both bearish, or both volatility/neutral). The new event is just another historical proof of the same thesis.
+
+**counter_scenario**: Same macro REGIME + same INSTRUMENT + OPPOSITE DIRECTION. Both are valid — they capture different scenarios within the same regime (e.g. pandemic bullish USD vs pandemic bearish USD).
+
+**new_pattern**: Different regime, different instrument, or no meaningful structural match.
+
+CRITICAL: Never merge opposite directions as a single pattern — use counter_scenario instead.
+Suggest a short generic regime_tag (2-5 words) capturing the macro theme, not the specific event (e.g. "Health Crisis", "Fed Dovish Pivot", "EM Currency Stress", "Geopolitical Energy Shock").
+
+Return ONLY valid JSON:
+{{
+  "recommendation": "merge_as_instance" | "counter_scenario" | "new_pattern",
+  "match_id": "existing pattern id or null",
+  "match_name": "existing pattern name or null",
+  "confidence": 0-100,
+  "reasoning": "2-3 sentences explaining the decision",
+  "suggested_regime_tag": "short generic label"
+}}"""
+
+    client = AsyncOpenAI(api_key=openai_key)
+    try:
+        resp = await client.chat.completions.create(
+            model="gpt-4o-mini",
+            messages=[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
+            temperature=0.1,
+            response_format={"type": "json_object"},
+            timeout=30,
+        )
+        return json.loads(resp.choices[0].message.content or "{}")
+    except Exception as e:
+        raise HTTPException(500, f"Matching failed: {e}")
+
+
 @router.post("/save-pattern")
 def save_pattern_from_run(req: SavePatternRequest):
     """Promote one AI-suggested pattern (with its outcome) to the pattern library."""
@@ -283,53 +397,85 @@ def save_pattern_from_run(req: SavePatternRequest):
     hit = bool(outcome.get("hit")) if outcome else None
     actual_move = outcome.get("actual_move_pct") if outcome else None
 
-    pat_name = req.name or pat.get("name", "Unnamed Pattern")
+    pat_name   = req.name or pat.get("name", "Unnamed Pattern")
+    action     = req.action or "new"
+    regime_tag = req.regime_tag or pat.get("category", "")
 
-    # Check if same name already exists → update reliability counters
-    conn = get_conn()
-    existing = conn.execute(
-        "SELECT id, backtest_hits, backtest_runs_count FROM custom_patterns WHERE name=? AND source='backtested'",
-        (pat_name,)
-    ).fetchone()
-
-    if existing:
-        new_hits  = (existing["backtest_hits"] or 0) + (1 if hit else 0)
-        new_runs  = (existing["backtest_runs_count"] or 0) + 1
-        conn.execute("""UPDATE custom_patterns
-            SET backtest_hits=?, backtest_runs_count=?, updated_at=datetime('now')
-            WHERE id=?""", (new_hits, new_runs, existing["id"]))
-        conn.commit()
-        conn.close()
-        return {"saved": existing["id"], "action": "updated", "backtest_hits": new_hits, "backtest_runs_count": new_runs}
-
-    # New pattern
-    new_id = f"P_LAB_{uuid.uuid4().hex[:6].upper()}"
-    historical_instance = {
-        "date":       run["analysis_date"],
-        "horizon":    run["horizon_days"],
-        "theme":      run["theme"],
-        "hit":        hit,
+    new_instance = {
+        "date":           run["analysis_date"],
+        "event_name":     req.event_name or run["theme"],
+        "horizon":        run["horizon_days"],
+        "run_id":         req.run_id,
+        "hit":            hit,
+        "hit_type":       "full" if hit else "miss",
         "actual_move_pct": actual_move,
     }
 
+    conn = get_conn()
+
+    # ── ACTION: merge as historical instance of an existing pattern ────────────
+    if action == "instance" and req.target_id:
+        existing = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM custom_patterns WHERE id=?", (req.target_id,)).fetchone()
+        if not existing:
+            conn.close()
+            raise HTTPException(404, "Target pattern not found")
+        instances = json.loads(existing["historical_instances"] or "[]")
+        instances.append(new_instance)
+        new_hits = (existing["backtest_hits"] or 0) + (1 if hit else 0)
+        new_runs = (existing["backtest_runs_count"] or 0) + 1
+        conn.execute("""UPDATE custom_patterns SET
+            historical_instances=?, backtest_hits=?, backtest_runs_count=?,
+            regime_tag=COALESCE(regime_tag, ?), updated_at=datetime('now')
+            WHERE id=?""", (json.dumps(instances), new_hits, new_runs, regime_tag, req.target_id))
+        conn.commit()
+        conn.close()
+        return {"saved": req.target_id, "action": "merged_instance",
+                "backtest_hits": new_hits, "backtest_runs_count": new_runs}
+
+    # ── ACTION: counter-scenario (new pattern linked to existing) ─────────────
+    # Also tag the parent with regime_tag if not already set
+    if action == "counter" and req.target_id:
+        conn.execute("""UPDATE custom_patterns SET
+            regime_tag=COALESCE(NULLIF(regime_tag,''), ?)
+            WHERE id=?""", (regime_tag, req.target_id))
+
+    # ── ACTION: new or counter — check for exact name duplicate first ─────────
+    name_match = conn.execute(
+        "SELECT id, backtest_hits, backtest_runs_count FROM custom_patterns WHERE name=? AND source='backtested'",
+        (pat_name,)
+    ).fetchone()
+    if name_match and action == "new":
+        new_hits = (name_match["backtest_hits"] or 0) + (1 if hit else 0)
+        new_runs = (name_match["backtest_runs_count"] or 0) + 1
+        conn.execute("""UPDATE custom_patterns SET
+            backtest_hits=?, backtest_runs_count=?,
+            regime_tag=COALESCE(NULLIF(regime_tag,''), ?), updated_at=datetime('now')
+            WHERE id=?""", (new_hits, new_runs, regime_tag, name_match["id"]))
+        conn.commit()
+        conn.close()
+        return {"saved": name_match["id"], "action": "updated",
+                "backtest_hits": new_hits, "backtest_runs_count": new_runs}
+
+    # ── Create new pattern ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+    new_id = f"P_LAB_{uuid.uuid4().hex[:6].upper()}"
     conn.execute("""INSERT INTO custom_patterns (
         id, name, description, triggers, keywords, historical_instances,
         suggested_trades, asset_class, expected_move_pct, probability,
         horizon_days, source, category, signal_direction,
-        backtest_hits, backtest_runs_count,
+        backtest_hits, backtest_runs_count, regime_tag, counter_of,
         is_active, taxonomy_path, updated_at
-    ) VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,'backtested',?,?,?,?,1,'[]',datetime('now'))""", (
+    ) VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,'backtested',?,?,?,?,?,?,1,'[]',datetime('now'))""", (
         new_id,
         pat_name,
         pat.get("description", ""),
         json.dumps([]),
         json.dumps([]),
-        json.dumps([historical_instance]),
+        json.dumps([new_instance]),
         json.dumps([{
-            "underlying":         pat.get("underlying", ""),
-            "strategy":           pat.get("strategy", ""),
-            "expected_move_pct":  pat.get("expected_move_pct", 0),
-            "asset_class":        req.asset_class,
+            "underlying":        pat.get("underlying", ""),
+            "strategy":          pat.get("strategy", ""),
+            "expected_move_pct": pat.get("expected_move_pct", 0),
+            "asset_class":       req.asset_class,
         }]),
         req.asset_class or "indices",
         pat.get("expected_move_pct", 0),
@@ -339,8 +485,11 @@ def save_pattern_from_run(req: SavePatternRequest):
         req.signal_direction or pat.get("signal_direction", ""),
         1 if hit else 0,
         1,
+        regime_tag,
+        req.target_id if action == "counter" else None,
     ))
     conn.commit()
     conn.close()
 
-    return {"saved": new_id, "action": "created", "backtest_hits": 1 if hit else 0, "backtest_runs_count": 1}
+    return {"saved": new_id, "action": action,
+            "backtest_hits": 1 if hit else 0, "backtest_runs_count": 1}

backend/services/database.py

@@ -88,6 +88,9 @@ def init_db():
         "ALTER TABLE custom_patterns ADD COLUMN backtest_runs_count INTEGER DEFAULT 0",
         # Remove all built-in patterns (no proof of legitimacy)
         "DELETE FROM custom_patterns WHERE source = 'builtin'",
+        # Regime / counter-scenario architecture
+        "ALTER TABLE custom_patterns ADD COLUMN regime_tag TEXT",
+        "ALTER TABLE custom_patterns ADD COLUMN counter_of TEXT",
     ]:
         try:
             c.execute(_sql)

frontend/src/hooks/useApi.ts

@@ -996,6 +996,8 @@ export const useSaveLabPattern = () => {
     mutationFn: (body: {
       run_id: string; pattern_index: number; name?: string;
       category?: string; signal_direction?: string; asset_class?: string;
+      action?: 'new' | 'instance' | 'counter';
+      target_id?: string; regime_tag?: string; event_name?: string;
     }) => api.post('/pattern-lab/save-pattern', body).then(r => r.data),
     onSuccess: () => {
       qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['all-patterns'] })
@@ -1004,6 +1006,21 @@ export const useSaveLabPattern = () => {
   })
 }
 
+export type MatchResult = {
+  recommendation: 'merge_as_instance' | 'counter_scenario' | 'new_pattern'
+  match_id?: string
+  match_name?: string
+  confidence: number
+  reasoning: string
+  suggested_regime_tag?: string
+}
+
+export const useFindMatchingPattern = () =>
+  useMutation({
+    mutationFn: (body: { run_id: string; pattern_index: number }): Promise<MatchResult> =>
+      api.post('/pattern-lab/find-matching', body).then(r => r.data),
+  })
+
 export const useDeleteLabRun = () => {
   const qc = useQueryClient()
   return useMutation({

frontend/src/pages/PatternExplorer.tsx

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import clsx from 'clsx'
 import {
   TreePine, Search, ChevronRight, ChevronDown,
   TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Zap, BookOpen, ExternalLink, RefreshCw,
+  Layers, GitMerge, Tag,
 } from 'lucide-react'
 import {
   useAllPatterns,
@@ -58,6 +59,10 @@ interface Pattern {
   taxonomy_path?: string[]
   ai_quality_score?: number
   is_active?: number
+  regime_tag?: string
+  counter_of?: string
+  backtest_hits?: number
+  backtest_runs_count?: number
 }
 
 interface ScoreResult {
@@ -749,9 +754,136 @@ function InstrumentLens({ patterns }: { patterns: Pattern[] }) {
   )
 }
 
+// ── Regime View ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function RegimeCard({ pattern, allPatterns }: { pattern: Pattern; allPatterns: Pattern[] }) {
+  const [open, setOpen] = useState(false)
+  const isCounter = !!pattern.counter_of
+  const counterOf = isCounter ? allPatterns.find(p => p.id === pattern.counter_of) : null
+  const instances = Array.isArray(pattern.historical_instances) ? pattern.historical_instances : []
+  const hitRate = pattern.backtest_runs_count
+    ? Math.round(((pattern.backtest_hits ?? 0) / pattern.backtest_runs_count) * 100)
+    : null
+
+  return (
+    <div className={clsx(
+      'border rounded-lg overflow-hidden transition-colors',
+      isCounter ? 'border-orange-700/50 bg-orange-900/5' : 'border-slate-700/50 bg-dark-700/30'
+    )}>
+      <button className="w-full flex items-center gap-3 p-3 text-left hover:bg-slate-800/30 transition-colors"
+        onClick={() => setOpen(v => !v)}>
+        {open ? <ChevronDown className="w-3.5 h-3.5 text-slate-500 shrink-0" /> : <ChevronRight className="w-3.5 h-3.5 text-slate-500 shrink-0" />}
+        {isCounter
+          ? <Layers className="w-4 h-4 text-orange-400 shrink-0" />
+          : <BookOpen className="w-4 h-4 text-violet-400 shrink-0" />}
+        <div className="flex-1 min-w-0">
+          <div className="flex items-center gap-2 flex-wrap">
+            <span className="text-sm font-semibold text-slate-100 truncate">{pattern.name}</span>
+            {isCounter && (
+              <span className="text-[10px] border border-orange-600 text-orange-400 rounded px-1.5 py-0.5 shrink-0">
+                counter of {counterOf?.name ?? pattern.counter_of}
+              </span>
+            )}
+            {pattern.signal_direction && (
+              <span className={clsx('text-[10px] rounded px-1.5 py-0.5 shrink-0',
+                pattern.signal_direction === 'up' ? 'bg-emerald-900/40 text-emerald-400' :
+                pattern.signal_direction === 'down' ? 'bg-red-900/40 text-red-400' : 'bg-slate-700 text-slate-400')}>
+                {pattern.signal_direction === 'up' ? '↑' : pattern.signal_direction === 'down' ? '↓' : '↕'} {pattern.signal_direction}
+              </span>
+            )}
+            {hitRate !== null && (
+              <span className={clsx('text-[10px] font-mono shrink-0',
+                hitRate >= 60 ? 'text-emerald-400' : hitRate >= 40 ? 'text-yellow-400' : 'text-red-400')}>
+                {hitRate}% ({pattern.backtest_hits}/{pattern.backtest_runs_count})
+              </span>
+            )}
+          </div>
+          <p className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 truncate mt-0.5">{pattern.description}</p>
+        </div>
+        <span className="text-[10px] text-slate-600 shrink-0 font-mono">{instances.length} events</span>
+      </button>
+      {open && instances.length > 0 && (
+        <div className="border-t border-slate-700/40 p-3 pt-2">
+          <div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mb-2 font-semibold uppercase tracking-wide">Historical instances</div>
+          <div className="flex flex-col gap-1.5">
+            {instances.map((inst: any, i: number) => (
+              <div key={i} className="flex items-center gap-3 text-[11px]">
+                <span className="text-slate-500 font-mono w-24 shrink-0">{inst.date ?? '—'}</span>
+                <span className="text-slate-300 flex-1 truncate">{inst.event_name ?? inst.event ?? inst.theme ?? '—'}</span>
+                {inst.hit !== undefined && (
+                  <span className={clsx('shrink-0', inst.hit_type === 'full' || inst.hit === true ? 'text-emerald-400' : inst.hit_type === 'partial' ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-red-400')}>
+                    {inst.hit_type === 'full' || inst.hit === true ? '✓' : inst.hit_type === 'partial' ? '~' : '✗'}
+                  </span>
+                )}
+              </div>
+            ))}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+function RegimeView({ patterns }: { patterns: Pattern[] }) {
+  const groups = useMemo(() => {
+    const byRegime: Record<string, Pattern[]> = {}
+    const untagged: Pattern[] = []
+    for (const p of patterns) {
+      if (p.source !== 'backtested' && p.source !== 'user') continue
+      if (p.regime_tag) {
+        ;(byRegime[p.regime_tag] ??= []).push(p)
+      } else {
+        untagged.push(p)
+      }
+    }
+    return { byRegime, untagged }
+  }, [patterns])
+
+  const regimes = Object.entries(groups.byRegime).sort((a, b) => b[1].length - a[1].length)
+
+  if (regimes.length === 0 && groups.untagged.length === 0) {
+    return (
+      <div className="flex flex-col items-center justify-center py-32 gap-3 text-slate-600">
+        <Tag className="w-8 h-8" />
+        <p className="text-sm">No saved patterns yet.</p>
+        <p className="text-xs">Use "Find Matching" in Pattern Lab to classify and save patterns into regimes.</p>
+      </div>
+    )
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="flex flex-col gap-6">
+      {regimes.map(([tag, pats]) => (
+        <div key={tag} className="flex flex-col gap-2">
+          <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+            <Tag className="w-3.5 h-3.5 text-violet-400" />
+            <span className="text-sm font-semibold text-violet-300">#{tag}</span>
+            <span className="text-xs text-slate-500">{pats.length} pattern{pats.length > 1 ? 's' : ''}</span>
+          </div>
+          <div className="flex flex-col gap-2 pl-4 border-l border-violet-900/40">
+            {pats.map(p => <RegimeCard key={p.id} pattern={p} allPatterns={patterns} />)}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      ))}
+      {groups.untagged.length > 0 && (
+        <div className="flex flex-col gap-2">
+          <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+            <Tag className="w-3.5 h-3.5 text-slate-500" />
+            <span className="text-sm font-semibold text-slate-500">Untagged</span>
+            <span className="text-xs text-slate-600">{groups.untagged.length} pattern{groups.untagged.length > 1 ? 's' : ''}</span>
+          </div>
+          <div className="flex flex-col gap-2 pl-4 border-l border-slate-700/40">
+            {groups.untagged.map(p => <RegimeCard key={p.id} pattern={p} allPatterns={patterns} />)}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
 // ── Page root ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-type ViewMode = 'tree' | 'instrument'
+type ViewMode = 'tree' | 'instrument' | 'regime'
 
 export default function PatternExplorer() {
   const [view, setView] = useState<ViewMode>('tree')
@@ -810,6 +942,18 @@ export default function PatternExplorer() {
             <Search className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />
             Instrument
           </button>
+          <button
+            className={clsx(
+              'flex items-center gap-1.5 px-3 py-1.5 rounded text-sm font-medium transition-colors',
+              view === 'regime'
+                ? 'bg-violet-600/30 text-violet-300 border border-violet-500/30'
+                : 'text-slate-400 hover:text-slate-200'
+            )}
+            onClick={() => setView('regime')}
+          >
+            <Layers className="w-3.5 h-3.5" />
+            By Regime
+          </button>
         </div>
       </div>
 
@@ -823,6 +967,7 @@ export default function PatternExplorer() {
         <>
           {view === 'tree' && <TreeView patterns={patterns} />}
           {view === 'instrument' && <InstrumentLens patterns={patterns} />}
+          {view === 'regime' && <RegimeView patterns={patterns} />}
         </>
       )}
     </div>

frontend/src/pages/PatternLab.tsx

@@ -3,12 +3,14 @@ import {
   useRunPatternLab, useEvaluatePatternLab, useSaveLabPattern,
   usePatternLabRuns, useDeleteLabRun,
   useInstrumentScan, useEvaluateInstrumentScan,
+  useFindMatchingPattern, MatchResult,
   validateTicker,
 } from '../hooks/useApi'
 import {
   FlaskConical, Play, CheckCircle2, XCircle, MinusCircle,
   Trash2, Save, RefreshCw, Search, CalendarDays,
   TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Zap, BarChart2, ScanLine, DollarSign,
+  GitMerge, Layers, Plus,
 } from 'lucide-react'
 import clsx from 'clsx'
 import { INSTRUMENTS, INSTRUMENT_CATEGORIES } from '../constants/instruments'
@@ -255,6 +257,7 @@ export default function PatternLab() {
   const { mutate: deleteRun }                                  = useDeleteLabRun()
   const { mutateAsync: runInstScan,    isPending: scanning }   = useInstrumentScan()
   const { mutateAsync: evaluateInst,   isPending: evalInst }   = useEvaluateInstrumentScan()
+  const { mutateAsync: findMatching }                          = useFindMatchingPattern()
 
   const runs: any[] = runsData ?? []
 
@@ -283,9 +286,11 @@ export default function PatternLab() {
   const [instSavedIdx, setInstSavedIdx] = useState<Set<number>>(new Set())
 
   // ── Current run state (events mode)
-  const [activeRun, setActiveRun] = useState<any | null>(null)
-  const [savedIdx, setSavedIdx]   = useState<Set<number>>(new Set())
-  const [toast, setToast]         = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [activeRun, setActiveRun]   = useState<any | null>(null)
+  const [savedIdx, setSavedIdx]     = useState<Set<number>>(new Set())
+  const [toast, setToast]           = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [matchResults, setMatchResults] = useState<Record<string, MatchResult>>({})
+  const [matchLoading, setMatchLoading] = useState<Record<string, boolean>>({})
 
   const filteredPresets = useMemo(() => PRESETS.filter(p => {
     if (yearFilter && p.year !== yearFilter) return false
@@ -338,7 +343,28 @@ export default function PatternLab() {
     }
   }
 
-  const handleSave = async (idx: number) => {
+  const matchKey = (idx: number) => `${activeRun?.run_id}-${idx}`
+
+  const handleFindMatching = async (idx: number) => {
+    if (!activeRun?.run_id) return
+    const key = matchKey(idx)
+    setMatchLoading(prev => ({ ...prev, [key]: true }))
+    try {
+      const result = await findMatching({ run_id: activeRun.run_id, pattern_index: idx })
+      setMatchResults(prev => ({ ...prev, [key]: result }))
+    } catch (e: any) {
+      showToast(`Find matching failed: ${e?.response?.data?.detail ?? e?.message}`)
+    } finally {
+      setMatchLoading(prev => ({ ...prev, [key]: false }))
+    }
+  }
+
+  const handleSave = async (
+    idx: number,
+    action: 'new' | 'instance' | 'counter' = 'new',
+    target_id?: string,
+    regime_tag?: string,
+  ) => {
     if (!activeRun?.run_id) return
     const pat = activeRun.ai_result?.patterns?.[idx]
     if (!pat) return
@@ -349,9 +375,13 @@ export default function PatternLab() {
         name: pat.name,
         category: pat.category,
         signal_direction: pat.signal_direction,
+        action,
+        target_id,
+        regime_tag,
       })
       setSavedIdx(prev => new Set([...prev, idx]))
-      showToast(`"${pat.name}" saved to Pattern Library`)
+      const actionLabel = action === 'instance' ? 'merged as instance' : action === 'counter' ? 'saved as counter-scenario' : 'saved'
+      showToast(`"${pat.name}" ${actionLabel}`)
     } catch (e: any) {
       showToast(`Save failed: ${e?.response?.data?.detail ?? e?.message}`)
     }
@@ -853,18 +883,65 @@ export default function PatternLab() {
                             {out && <OutcomeRow out={out} />}
                           </div>
 
-                          {/* Save button */}
-                          <div className="flex-shrink-0">
+                          {/* Save / Find Matching buttons */}
+                          <div className="flex-shrink-0 flex flex-col items-end gap-2">
                             {isSaved ? (
                               <span className="flex items-center gap-1 text-emerald-400 text-xs">
                                 <CheckCircle2 className="w-3.5 h-3.5" /> Saved
                               </span>
-                            ) : (
-                              <button onClick={() => handleSave(idx)}
-                                className="flex items-center gap-1.5 border border-slate-600 hover:border-violet-500 hover:text-violet-300 text-slate-400 px-2.5 py-1.5 rounded text-xs transition-colors">
-                                <Save className="w-3 h-3" /> Save pattern
-                              </button>
-                            )}
+                            ) : (() => {
+                              const key = matchKey(idx)
+                              const mr = matchResults[key]
+                              const loading = matchLoading[key]
+                              if (mr) {
+                                const isInstance = mr.recommendation === 'merge_as_instance'
+                                const isCounter  = mr.recommendation === 'counter_scenario'
+                                const badgeColor = isInstance ? 'text-emerald-400 border-emerald-600' : isCounter ? 'text-orange-400 border-orange-600' : 'text-slate-400 border-slate-600'
+                                return (
+                                  <div className="flex flex-col items-end gap-1.5">
+                                    <div className={`text-[10px] border rounded px-1.5 py-0.5 ${badgeColor}`}>
+                                      {isInstance ? <><GitMerge className="w-3 h-3 inline mr-1" />Match: {mr.match_name} ({mr.confidence}%)</>
+                                       : isCounter ? <><Layers className="w-3 h-3 inline mr-1" />Counter of: {mr.match_name} ({mr.confidence}%)</>
+                                       : <><Plus className="w-3 h-3 inline mr-1" />New pattern</>}
+                                    </div>
+                                    {mr.suggested_regime_tag && (
+                                      <div className="text-[10px] text-violet-400 font-mono">#{mr.suggested_regime_tag}</div>
+                                    )}
+                                    <div className="flex gap-1.5">
+                                      {isInstance && mr.match_id && (
+                                        <button onClick={() => handleSave(idx, 'instance', mr.match_id, mr.suggested_regime_tag)}
+                                          className="flex items-center gap-1 border border-emerald-600 hover:border-emerald-400 text-emerald-400 px-2 py-1 rounded text-[10px] transition-colors">
+                                          <GitMerge className="w-3 h-3" /> Merge
+                                        </button>
+                                      )}
+                                      {isCounter && mr.match_id && (
+                                        <button onClick={() => handleSave(idx, 'counter', mr.match_id, mr.suggested_regime_tag)}
+                                          className="flex items-center gap-1 border border-orange-600 hover:border-orange-400 text-orange-400 px-2 py-1 rounded text-[10px] transition-colors">
+                                          <Layers className="w-3 h-3" /> Save counter
+                                        </button>
+                                      )}
+                                      <button onClick={() => handleSave(idx, 'new', undefined, mr.suggested_regime_tag)}
+                                        className="flex items-center gap-1 border border-slate-600 hover:border-slate-400 text-slate-400 px-2 py-1 rounded text-[10px] transition-colors">
+                                        <Save className="w-3 h-3" /> Save new
+                                      </button>
+                                    </div>
+                                  </div>
+                                )
+                              }
+                              return (
+                                <div className="flex gap-1.5">
+                                  <button onClick={() => handleFindMatching(idx)} disabled={loading}
+                                    className="flex items-center gap-1.5 border border-violet-700 hover:border-violet-400 text-violet-400 px-2.5 py-1.5 rounded text-xs transition-colors disabled:opacity-50">
+                                    {loading ? <RefreshCw className="w-3 h-3 animate-spin" /> : <GitMerge className="w-3 h-3" />}
+                                    Find matching
+                                  </button>
+                                  <button onClick={() => handleSave(idx)}
+                                    className="flex items-center gap-1.5 border border-slate-600 hover:border-violet-500 hover:text-violet-300 text-slate-400 px-2.5 py-1.5 rounded text-xs transition-colors">
+                                    <Save className="w-3 h-3" /> Save
+                                  </button>
+                                </div>
+                              )
+                            })()}
                           </div>
                         </div>
                       </div>