feat: FF→FRED series mapping + MacroSeries visualization page

Backend:
- ff_calendar: add series_id column (migration) + FF_TO_FRED mapping dict
  (NFP→PAYEMS, CPI→CPIAUCSL, Jobless Claims→ICSA, GDP→GDPC1, FEDFUNDS, PCE)
- import_csv + sync_live now populate series_id on each FF event
- New GET /api/eco/series/{id}/history: FRED time series + linked FF events
  (surprises, forecast, actual) merged by date — enables context queries

Frontend:
- New MacroSeriesPage.tsx: sidebar with 11 FRED series grouped by category,
  recharts ComposedChart with area + z-score surprise reference lines (|z|≥1.5),
  KPI cards (latest/prev/min/max), FF events table (actual vs forecast coloring),
  z-score bar chart for recent surprises, range selector (1Y/2Y/5Y/10Y/All)
- Route /macro-series + Sidebar entry "Macro Series"

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
OpenSquared
2026-06-26 16:51:55 +02:00
parent b187107468
commit afbfeff468
6 changed files with 650 additions and 4 deletions

View File

@@ -407,6 +407,67 @@ def ff_calendar(
)
@router.get("/series/{series_id}/history")
def series_history(
series_id: str,
from_date: Optional[str] = Query(None, description="YYYY-MM-DD"),
to_date: Optional[str] = Query(None, description="YYYY-MM-DD"),
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""
Time series data for a FRED series (from economic_events table)
combined with the matching FF calendar events (surprises, forecasts).
"""
from services.database import get_conn
from services.fred_bootstrap import FRED_SERIES
meta = FRED_SERIES.get(series_id)
if not meta:
raise HTTPException(404, f"Unknown series: {series_id}")
conn = get_conn()
try:
# ── FRED time series ──────────────────────────────────────────────
ts_where = ["series_id = ?"]
ts_params: list = [series_id]
if from_date:
ts_where.append("event_date >= ?"); ts_params.append(from_date)
if to_date:
ts_where.append("event_date <= ?"); ts_params.append(to_date)
ts_rows = conn.execute(
f"SELECT event_date, actual_value, surprise_zscore, surprise_direction "
f"FROM economic_events WHERE {' AND '.join(ts_where)} ORDER BY event_date ASC",
ts_params,
).fetchall()
# ── FF events for this series ─────────────────────────────────────
ff_where = ["series_id = ?", "currency = 'USD'"]
ff_params: list = [series_id]
if from_date:
ff_where.append("event_date >= ?"); ff_params.append(from_date)
if to_date:
ff_where.append("event_date <= ?"); ff_params.append(to_date)
ff_rows = conn.execute(
f"SELECT event_date, event_time, event_name, actual_value, "
f"forecast_value, previous_value, impact "
f"FROM ff_calendar WHERE {' AND '.join(ff_where)} ORDER BY event_date ASC",
ff_params,
).fetchall()
return {
"series_id": series_id,
"name": meta["name"],
"unit": meta["unit"],
"category": meta["category"],
"freq": meta["freq"],
"timeseries": [dict(r) for r in ts_rows],
"events": [dict(r) for r in ff_rows],
}
finally:
conn.close()
@router.get("/ff-stats")
def ff_stats() -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Quick inventory of ff_calendar table."""

View File

@@ -696,6 +696,7 @@ def init_db():
actual_value TEXT,
forecast_value TEXT,
previous_value TEXT,
series_id TEXT,
detail TEXT,
source TEXT DEFAULT 'ff_cache',
fetched_at TEXT DEFAULT (datetime('now')),
@@ -705,8 +706,14 @@ def init_db():
c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ff_date ON ff_calendar(event_date)")
c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ff_currency ON ff_calendar(currency)")
c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ff_impact ON ff_calendar(impact)")
c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ff_series ON ff_calendar(series_id)")
except Exception:
pass
# Migration: add series_id column if missing (existing deployments)
try:
c.execute("ALTER TABLE ff_calendar ADD COLUMN series_id TEXT")
except Exception:
pass # Column already exists
# ── Specialist Desks ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
c.execute("""CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS specialist_reports (

View File

@@ -31,6 +31,32 @@ _IMPACT_MAP = {
# Currencies we care about (drop 'All' pseudo-currency)
SUPPORTED_CURRENCIES = {"USD", "EUR", "GBP", "JPY", "AUD", "CAD", "NZD", "CHF", "CNY"}
# ── FF event name → FRED series_id mapping ────────────────────────────────────
# Exact FF event names → our FRED series catalog
FF_TO_FRED: dict[str, str] = {
# Employment
"Non-Farm Employment Change": "PAYEMS",
"ADP Non-Farm Employment Change": "PAYEMS",
"Unemployment Rate": "UNRATE",
"Unemployment Claims": "ICSA",
# Inflation — CPI
"CPI m/m": "CPIAUCSL",
"CPI y/y": "CPIAUCSL",
"Core CPI m/m": "CPILFESL",
"Core CPI y/y": "CPILFESL",
# Inflation — PCE
"Core PCE Price Index m/m": "PCEPILFE",
"Core PCE Price Index y/y": "PCEPILFE",
# Monetary policy
"Federal Funds Rate": "FEDFUNDS",
"FOMC Statement": "FEDFUNDS",
# Growth — GDP
"Advance GDP q/q": "GDPC1",
"Prelim GDP q/q": "GDPC1",
"Final GDP q/q": "GDPC1",
"GDP q/q": "GDPC1",
}
def _parse_ff_datetime(dt_str: str) -> tuple[str, str]:
"""
@@ -92,9 +118,10 @@ def import_csv(csv_path: str, progress_cb=None) -> Dict[str, Any]:
previous = (row.get("Previous") or "").strip() or None
detail = (row.get("Detail") or "").strip() or None
series_id = FF_TO_FRED.get(event_name)
batch.append((
event_date, event_time, currency, impact, event_name,
actual, forecast, previous, detail, "ff_cache",
actual, forecast, previous, series_id, detail, "ff_cache",
))
if len(batch) >= 500:
@@ -123,13 +150,14 @@ def _upsert_batch(conn, batch: list):
conn.executemany(
"""INSERT INTO ff_calendar
(event_date, event_time, currency, impact, event_name,
actual_value, forecast_value, previous_value, detail, source)
VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)
actual_value, forecast_value, previous_value, series_id, detail, source)
VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)
ON CONFLICT(event_date, event_time, currency, event_name)
DO UPDATE SET
actual_value = COALESCE(excluded.actual_value, ff_calendar.actual_value),
forecast_value = COALESCE(excluded.forecast_value, ff_calendar.forecast_value),
previous_value = COALESCE(excluded.previous_value, ff_calendar.previous_value),
series_id = COALESCE(excluded.series_id, ff_calendar.series_id),
fetched_at = datetime('now')
""",
batch,
@@ -176,9 +204,10 @@ def sync_live() -> Dict[str, Any]:
forecast = (ev.get("forecast") or "").strip() or None
previous = (ev.get("previous") or "").strip() or None
series_id = FF_TO_FRED.get(event_name)
batch.append((
event_date, event_time, currency, impact, event_name,
actual, forecast, previous, None, "ff_live",
actual, forecast, previous, series_id, None, "ff_live",
))
if batch:

View File

@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ import InstrumentDashboard from './pages/InstrumentDashboard'
import CycleActions from './pages/CycleActions'
import MarketEvents from './pages/MarketEvents'
import AIDesks from './pages/AIDesks'
import MacroSeriesPage from './pages/MacroSeriesPage'
import { Navigate } from 'react-router-dom'
import { useCycleWatcher } from './hooks/useApi'
@@ -55,6 +56,7 @@ export default function App() {
<Route path="/portfolio" element={<Portfolio />} />
<Route path="/backtest" element={<Backtest />} />
<Route path="/calendar" element={<CalendarPage />} />
<Route path="/macro-series" element={<MacroSeriesPage />} />
<Route path="/journal" element={<JournalDeBord />} />
<Route path="/rapport" element={<RapportIA />} />
<Route path="/super-contexte" element={<SuperContexte />} />

View File

@@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ const nav = [
{ to: '/position-history', icon: GitCompare, label: 'Position History' },
{ to: '/backtest', icon: History, label: 'Backtest' },
{ to: '/calendar', icon: Calendar, label: 'Calendar' },
{ to: '/macro-series', icon: TrendingUp, label: 'Macro Series' },
{ to: '/institutional', icon: Building2, label: 'Inst. Reports' },
{ to: '/specialist-desks', icon: Users, label: 'Specialist Desks' },
{ to: '/instruments', icon: CandlestickChart, label: 'Instrument Analysis' },

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,546 @@
import { useState, useEffect, useCallback } from 'react'
import clsx from 'clsx'
import { RefreshCw, TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Minus } from 'lucide-react'
import {
ComposedChart, Line, XAxis, YAxis, CartesianGrid, Tooltip,
ResponsiveContainer, ReferenceLine, Area,
} from 'recharts'
const API = ''
// ── Types ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
interface SeriesMeta {
id: string
name: string
category: string
freq: string
unit: string
assets: string[]
}
interface TSPoint {
event_date: string
actual_value: number | null
surprise_zscore: number | null
surprise_direction: string | null
}
interface FFEvent {
event_date: string
event_time: string | null
event_name: string
actual_value: string | null
forecast_value: string | null
previous_value: string | null
impact: string
}
interface SeriesHistory {
series_id: string
name: string
unit: string
category: string
freq: string
timeseries: TSPoint[]
events: FFEvent[]
}
// ── Constants ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
const CATEGORY_COLORS: Record<string, string> = {
employment: '#3b82f6',
inflation: '#f59e0b',
growth: '#10b981',
monetary: '#8b5cf6',
credit: '#ef4444',
rates: '#06b6d4',
}
const CATEGORY_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
employment: 'Employment',
inflation: 'Inflation',
growth: 'Growth',
monetary: 'Monetary',
credit: 'Credit',
rates: 'Rates',
}
const RANGE_OPTIONS = [
{ key: '1y', label: '1Y', months: 12 },
{ key: '2y', label: '2Y', months: 24 },
{ key: '5y', label: '5Y', months: 60 },
{ key: '10y', label: '10Y', months: 120 },
{ key: 'all', label: 'All', months: 999 },
]
// ── Helpers ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function fromDateForRange(months: number): string {
if (months >= 999) return '2007-01-01'
const d = new Date()
d.setMonth(d.getMonth() - months)
return d.toISOString().slice(0, 10)
}
function fmtDate(s: string): string {
return s.slice(0, 7) // YYYY-MM
}
function fmtVal(v: number | null, unit: string): string {
if (v === null) return '—'
const fixed = Math.abs(v) < 10 ? 2 : 1
return `${v.toFixed(fixed)} ${unit}`
}
// ── Custom Tooltip ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
interface TooltipPayload {
event_date: string
value: number | null
zscore: number | null
direction: string | null
ff_actual?: string
ff_forecast?: string
ff_event?: string
}
function ChartTooltip({ active, payload, unit }: {
active?: boolean
payload?: Array<{ payload: TooltipPayload }>
unit: string
}) {
if (!active || !payload?.length) return null
const d = payload[0].payload
return (
<div className="bg-slate-900 border border-slate-600 rounded p-2.5 text-xs shadow-xl min-w-[160px]">
<div className="text-slate-400 mb-1">{d.event_date}</div>
<div className="text-white font-semibold mb-1">
{d.value !== null ? `${d.value?.toFixed(2)} ${unit}` : '—'}
</div>
{d.zscore !== null && (
<div className={clsx(
'text-xs',
d.direction === 'bullish' ? 'text-emerald-400' :
d.direction === 'bearish' ? 'text-red-400' : 'text-slate-400'
)}>
z-score: {d.zscore?.toFixed(2)}
</div>
)}
{d.ff_event && (
<div className="mt-1.5 pt-1.5 border-t border-slate-700">
<div className="text-slate-500 text-[10px]">FF Release</div>
<div className="text-slate-200">{d.ff_event}</div>
{d.ff_forecast && <div className="text-slate-400">Forecast: {d.ff_forecast}</div>}
{d.ff_actual && <div className="text-slate-300">Actual: {d.ff_actual}</div>}
</div>
)}
</div>
)
}
// ── Direction Icon ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function DirIcon({ dir }: { dir: string | null }) {
if (dir === 'bullish') return <TrendingUp size={12} className="text-emerald-400" />
if (dir === 'bearish') return <TrendingDown size={12} className="text-red-400" />
return <Minus size={12} className="text-slate-500" />
}
// ── Series Sidebar ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function SeriesList({
series,
selected,
onSelect,
}: {
series: SeriesMeta[]
selected: string
onSelect: (id: string) => void
}) {
const grouped = series.reduce<Record<string, SeriesMeta[]>>((acc, s) => {
if (!acc[s.category]) acc[s.category] = []
acc[s.category].push(s)
return acc
}, {})
return (
<div className="flex flex-col gap-3">
{Object.entries(grouped).map(([cat, items]) => (
<div key={cat}>
<div className="text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider mb-1"
style={{ color: CATEGORY_COLORS[cat] ?? '#64748b' }}>
{CATEGORY_LABELS[cat] ?? cat}
</div>
<div className="flex flex-col gap-0.5">
{items.map(s => (
<button
key={s.id}
onClick={() => onSelect(s.id)}
className={clsx(
'text-left px-2.5 py-1.5 rounded text-sm transition-colors',
selected === s.id
? 'bg-slate-700 text-white'
: 'text-slate-400 hover:bg-slate-800 hover:text-slate-200'
)}
>
{s.name}
<span className="ml-1.5 text-xs text-slate-600">{s.unit}</span>
</button>
))}
</div>
</div>
))}
</div>
)
}
// ── Events Table ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function EventsTable({ events, unit }: { events: FFEvent[]; unit: string }) {
const recent = [...events].reverse().slice(0, 30)
if (!recent.length) return (
<div className="text-slate-600 text-sm text-center py-6">
No FF events linked to this series yet.<br/>
<span className="text-xs">Import the CSV and run the bootstrap first.</span>
</div>
)
return (
<div className="overflow-x-auto">
<table className="w-full text-xs">
<thead>
<tr className="text-slate-500 border-b border-slate-800">
<th className="text-left py-1.5 pr-3">Date</th>
<th className="text-left py-1.5 pr-3">Event</th>
<th className="text-right py-1.5 pr-3">Actual</th>
<th className="text-right py-1.5 pr-3">Forecast</th>
<th className="text-right py-1.5">Previous</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
{recent.map((ev, i) => {
const aNum = parseFloat(ev.actual_value ?? '')
const fNum = parseFloat(ev.forecast_value ?? '')
const beat = !isNaN(aNum) && !isNaN(fNum) && aNum !== fNum
const better = beat && aNum > fNum
return (
<tr key={i} className="border-b border-slate-800/50 hover:bg-slate-800/30">
<td className="py-1.5 pr-3 text-slate-400 tabular-nums">{ev.event_date}</td>
<td className="py-1.5 pr-3 text-slate-300 max-w-[200px] truncate">{ev.event_name}</td>
<td className={clsx('py-1.5 pr-3 text-right tabular-nums font-medium',
beat ? (better ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400') : 'text-slate-200')}>
{ev.actual_value ?? '—'}
</td>
<td className="py-1.5 pr-3 text-right tabular-nums text-slate-400">
{ev.forecast_value ?? '—'}
</td>
<td className="py-1.5 text-right tabular-nums text-slate-500">
{ev.previous_value ?? '—'}
</td>
</tr>
)
})}
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
)
}
// ── Main Page ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
export default function MacroSeriesPage() {
const [seriesList, setSeriesList] = useState<SeriesMeta[]>([])
const [selectedId, setSelectedId] = useState<string>('PAYEMS')
const [range, setRange] = useState('5y')
const [history, setHistory] = useState<SeriesHistory | null>(null)
const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
// Load series catalog
useEffect(() => {
fetch(`${API}/api/eco/series`).then(r => r.json()).then(setSeriesList).catch(() => {})
}, [])
const loadHistory = useCallback(async () => {
if (!selectedId) return
setLoading(true)
try {
const months = RANGE_OPTIONS.find(r => r.key === range)?.months ?? 60
const from = fromDateForRange(months)
const r: SeriesHistory = await fetch(
`${API}/api/eco/series/${selectedId}/history?from_date=${from}`
).then(x => x.json())
setHistory(r)
} catch {}
finally { setLoading(false) }
}, [selectedId, range])
useEffect(() => { loadHistory() }, [loadHistory])
// Build chart data — merge FRED time series + FF events by date
const chartData = (() => {
if (!history) return []
const ffByDate = new Map<string, FFEvent>()
for (const ev of history.events) ffByDate.set(ev.event_date, ev)
return history.timeseries.map(pt => {
const ff = ffByDate.get(pt.event_date)
return {
event_date: pt.event_date,
label: fmtDate(pt.event_date),
value: pt.actual_value,
zscore: pt.surprise_zscore,
direction: pt.surprise_direction,
ff_event: ff?.event_name ?? null,
ff_actual: ff?.actual_value ?? null,
ff_forecast:ff?.forecast_value ?? null,
// For reference lines — mark surprise events
is_surprise: pt.surprise_zscore !== null && Math.abs(pt.surprise_zscore) >= 1.5,
}
})
})()
const color = CATEGORY_COLORS[history?.category ?? ''] ?? '#3b82f6'
// Stats
const values = chartData.map(d => d.value).filter((v): v is number => v !== null)
const latest = values[values.length - 1] ?? null
const prev = values[values.length - 2] ?? null
const minVal = values.length ? Math.min(...values) : null
const maxVal = values.length ? Math.max(...values) : null
const trend = latest !== null && prev !== null ? (latest > prev ? 1 : latest < prev ? -1 : 0) : 0
// Big surprises for reference lines
const bigSurprises = chartData.filter(d => d.is_surprise)
return (
<div className="flex h-full overflow-hidden" style={{ minHeight: 0 }}>
{/* Sidebar */}
<div className="w-56 shrink-0 bg-slate-900 border-r border-slate-800 overflow-y-auto p-3">
<div className="text-xs font-bold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wider mb-3">
FRED Series
</div>
<SeriesList
series={seriesList}
selected={selectedId}
onSelect={id => { setSelectedId(id); setHistory(null) }}
/>
</div>
{/* Main content */}
<div className="flex-1 overflow-y-auto p-4 space-y-4">
{/* Header */}
<div className="flex items-start justify-between flex-wrap gap-3">
<div>
<h1 className="text-xl font-bold text-white">
{history?.name ?? selectedId}
</h1>
<div className="text-slate-500 text-xs mt-0.5">
{history?.category && (
<span className="mr-2" style={{ color }}>
{CATEGORY_LABELS[history.category]}
</span>
)}
{history?.freq} · FRED/{selectedId}
</div>
</div>
<div className="flex items-center gap-2">
{/* Range selector */}
<div className="flex gap-1 bg-slate-800 rounded p-0.5">
{RANGE_OPTIONS.map(r => (
<button
key={r.key}
onClick={() => setRange(r.key)}
className={clsx(
'px-2.5 py-1 rounded text-xs font-medium transition-colors',
range === r.key ? 'bg-slate-600 text-white' : 'text-slate-400 hover:text-slate-200'
)}
>
{r.label}
</button>
))}
</div>
<button
onClick={loadHistory}
disabled={loading}
className="p-1.5 rounded bg-slate-700 hover:bg-slate-600 disabled:opacity-50"
>
<RefreshCw size={13} className={clsx(loading && 'animate-spin')} />
</button>
</div>
</div>
{/* KPI cards */}
{history && values.length > 0 && (
<div className="grid grid-cols-4 gap-3">
{[
{
label: 'Latest',
value: fmtVal(latest, history.unit),
sub: history.timeseries[history.timeseries.length - 1]?.event_date,
accent: trend === 1 ? 'text-emerald-400' : trend === -1 ? 'text-red-400' : 'text-slate-200',
icon: trend === 1 ? <TrendingUp size={14}/> : trend === -1 ? <TrendingDown size={14}/> : <Minus size={14}/>,
},
{ label: 'Previous', value: fmtVal(prev, history.unit), sub: history.timeseries[history.timeseries.length - 2]?.event_date, accent: 'text-slate-300', icon: null },
{ label: 'Min (period)', value: fmtVal(minVal, history.unit), sub: null, accent: 'text-sky-400', icon: null },
{ label: 'Max (period)', value: fmtVal(maxVal, history.unit), sub: null, accent: 'text-amber-400', icon: null },
].map(card => (
<div key={card.label} className="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg p-3 border border-slate-700">
<div className="text-slate-500 text-xs mb-1">{card.label}</div>
<div className={clsx('text-base font-bold flex items-center gap-1', card.accent)}>
{card.icon}{card.value}
</div>
{card.sub && <div className="text-slate-600 text-xs mt-0.5">{card.sub}</div>}
</div>
))}
</div>
)}
{/* Chart */}
<div className="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg border border-slate-700 p-4">
<div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-3">
<span className="text-sm font-medium text-slate-300">
Time Series
{history && <span className="text-slate-500 text-xs ml-2">({chartData.length} data points)</span>}
</span>
{bigSurprises.length > 0 && (
<span className="text-xs text-slate-500">
{bigSurprises.length} big surprises (|z| 1.5)
</span>
)}
</div>
{loading && (
<div className="h-64 flex items-center justify-center text-slate-600 text-sm">
Loading
</div>
)}
{!loading && chartData.length === 0 && (
<div className="h-64 flex items-center justify-center text-slate-600 text-sm">
No data run FRED bootstrap first in the Calendar page.
</div>
)}
{!loading && chartData.length > 0 && (
<ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height={280}>
<ComposedChart data={chartData} margin={{ top: 4, right: 16, bottom: 4, left: 0 }}>
<defs>
<linearGradient id={`grad-${selectedId}`} x1="0" y1="0" x2="0" y2="1">
<stop offset="5%" stopColor={color} stopOpacity={0.25} />
<stop offset="95%" stopColor={color} stopOpacity={0} />
</linearGradient>
</defs>
<CartesianGrid strokeDasharray="3 3" stroke="#1e293b" />
<XAxis
dataKey="label"
tick={{ fontSize: 10, fill: '#64748b' }}
interval="preserveStartEnd"
tickLine={false}
/>
<YAxis
tick={{ fontSize: 10, fill: '#64748b' }}
tickLine={false}
axisLine={false}
width={50}
tickFormatter={v => `${v}${history?.unit === '%' || history?.unit === 'pp' ? '' : ''}`}
/>
<Tooltip content={<ChartTooltip unit={history?.unit ?? ''} />} />
{/* Zero line if series crosses zero */}
{minVal !== null && maxVal !== null && minVal < 0 && maxVal > 0 && (
<ReferenceLine y={0} stroke="#475569" strokeDasharray="4 2" />
)}
{/* Big surprise markers */}
{bigSurprises.map(s => (
<ReferenceLine
key={s.event_date}
x={fmtDate(s.event_date)}
stroke={s.direction === 'bullish' ? '#10b981' : s.direction === 'bearish' ? '#ef4444' : '#64748b'}
strokeWidth={1}
strokeDasharray="3 3"
opacity={0.6}
/>
))}
<Area
type="monotone"
dataKey="value"
stroke={color}
strokeWidth={2}
fill={`url(#grad-${selectedId})`}
dot={false}
activeDot={{ r: 4, fill: color }}
/>
</ComposedChart>
</ResponsiveContainer>
)}
{/* Legend for reference lines */}
{bigSurprises.length > 0 && (
<div className="flex items-center gap-4 mt-2 text-xs text-slate-500">
<span className="flex items-center gap-1">
<span className="w-4 border-t border-dashed border-emerald-500 inline-block" />
Bullish surprise (|z|1.5)
</span>
<span className="flex items-center gap-1">
<span className="w-4 border-t border-dashed border-red-500 inline-block" />
Bearish surprise
</span>
</div>
)}
</div>
{/* Events table */}
<div className="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg border border-slate-700 p-4">
<div className="text-sm font-medium text-slate-300 mb-3">
FF Calendar Events
{history && <span className="text-slate-500 text-xs ml-2">({history.events.length} linked)</span>}
</div>
{history && <EventsTable events={history.events} unit={history.unit} />}
</div>
{/* Z-score context */}
{history && chartData.some(d => d.zscore !== null) && (
<div className="bg-slate-800 rounded-lg border border-slate-700 p-4">
<div className="text-sm font-medium text-slate-300 mb-3">Recent Surprises (FRED z-score)</div>
<div className="flex flex-col gap-1">
{chartData
.filter(d => d.zscore !== null && d.zscore !== 0)
.slice(-15)
.reverse()
.map((d, i) => (
<div key={i} className="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs">
<span className="text-slate-500 w-24 tabular-nums shrink-0">{d.event_date}</span>
<DirIcon dir={d.direction} />
<div className="flex-1 bg-slate-700 rounded-full h-1.5 overflow-hidden">
<div
className={clsx(
'h-full rounded-full',
d.direction === 'bullish' ? 'bg-emerald-500' :
d.direction === 'bearish' ? 'bg-red-500' : 'bg-slate-500'
)}
style={{ width: `${Math.min(100, Math.abs(d.zscore!) * 25)}%` }}
/>
</div>
<span className={clsx(
'w-12 text-right tabular-nums',
d.direction === 'bullish' ? 'text-emerald-400' :
d.direction === 'bearish' ? 'text-red-400' : 'text-slate-400'
)}>
{d.zscore!.toFixed(2)}σ
</span>
<span className="text-slate-500 tabular-nums">
{d.value?.toFixed(2)} {history.unit}
</span>
</div>
))}
</div>
</div>
)}
</div>
</div>
)
}