feat: FF→FRED series mapping + MacroSeries visualization page

Backend:
- ff_calendar: add series_id column (migration) + FF_TO_FRED mapping dict
  (NFP→PAYEMS, CPI→CPIAUCSL, Jobless Claims→ICSA, GDP→GDPC1, FEDFUNDS, PCE)
- import_csv + sync_live now populate series_id on each FF event
- New GET /api/eco/series/{id}/history: FRED time series + linked FF events
  (surprises, forecast, actual) merged by date — enables context queries

Frontend:
- New MacroSeriesPage.tsx: sidebar with 11 FRED series grouped by category,
  recharts ComposedChart with area + z-score surprise reference lines (|z|≥1.5),
  KPI cards (latest/prev/min/max), FF events table (actual vs forecast coloring),
  z-score bar chart for recent surprises, range selector (1Y/2Y/5Y/10Y/All)
- Route /macro-series + Sidebar entry "Macro Series"

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/services/database.py

@@ -696,6 +696,7 @@ def init_db():
         actual_value TEXT,
         forecast_value TEXT,
         previous_value TEXT,
+        series_id TEXT,
         detail TEXT,
         source TEXT DEFAULT 'ff_cache',
         fetched_at TEXT DEFAULT (datetime('now')),
@@ -705,8 +706,14 @@ def init_db():
         c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ff_date ON ff_calendar(event_date)")
         c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ff_currency ON ff_calendar(currency)")
         c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ff_impact ON ff_calendar(impact)")
+        c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_ff_series ON ff_calendar(series_id)")
     except Exception:
         pass
+    # Migration: add series_id column if missing (existing deployments)
+    try:
+        c.execute("ALTER TABLE ff_calendar ADD COLUMN series_id TEXT")
+    except Exception:
+        pass  # Column already exists
 
     # ── Specialist Desks ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
     c.execute("""CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS specialist_reports (

backend/services/ff_calendar.py

@@ -31,6 +31,32 @@ _IMPACT_MAP = {
 # Currencies we care about (drop 'All' pseudo-currency)
 SUPPORTED_CURRENCIES = {"USD", "EUR", "GBP", "JPY", "AUD", "CAD", "NZD", "CHF", "CNY"}
 
+# ── FF event name → FRED series_id mapping ────────────────────────────────────
+# Exact FF event names → our FRED series catalog
+FF_TO_FRED: dict[str, str] = {
+    # Employment
+    "Non-Farm Employment Change":       "PAYEMS",
+    "ADP Non-Farm Employment Change":   "PAYEMS",
+    "Unemployment Rate":                "UNRATE",
+    "Unemployment Claims":              "ICSA",
+    # Inflation — CPI
+    "CPI m/m":                          "CPIAUCSL",
+    "CPI y/y":                          "CPIAUCSL",
+    "Core CPI m/m":                     "CPILFESL",
+    "Core CPI y/y":                     "CPILFESL",
+    # Inflation — PCE
+    "Core PCE Price Index m/m":         "PCEPILFE",
+    "Core PCE Price Index y/y":         "PCEPILFE",
+    # Monetary policy
+    "Federal Funds Rate":               "FEDFUNDS",
+    "FOMC Statement":                   "FEDFUNDS",
+    # Growth — GDP
+    "Advance GDP q/q":                  "GDPC1",
+    "Prelim GDP q/q":                   "GDPC1",
+    "Final GDP q/q":                    "GDPC1",
+    "GDP q/q":                          "GDPC1",
+}
+
 
 def _parse_ff_datetime(dt_str: str) -> tuple[str, str]:
     """
@@ -92,9 +118,10 @@ def import_csv(csv_path: str, progress_cb=None) -> Dict[str, Any]:
                 previous = (row.get("Previous") or "").strip() or None
                 detail   = (row.get("Detail") or "").strip() or None
 
+                series_id = FF_TO_FRED.get(event_name)
                 batch.append((
                     event_date, event_time, currency, impact, event_name,
-                    actual, forecast, previous, detail, "ff_cache",
+                    actual, forecast, previous, series_id, detail, "ff_cache",
                 ))
 
                 if len(batch) >= 500:
@@ -123,13 +150,14 @@ def _upsert_batch(conn, batch: list):
     conn.executemany(
         """INSERT INTO ff_calendar
            (event_date, event_time, currency, impact, event_name,
-            actual_value, forecast_value, previous_value, detail, source)
-           VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)
+            actual_value, forecast_value, previous_value, series_id, detail, source)
+           VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?)
            ON CONFLICT(event_date, event_time, currency, event_name)
            DO UPDATE SET
              actual_value   = COALESCE(excluded.actual_value, ff_calendar.actual_value),
              forecast_value = COALESCE(excluded.forecast_value, ff_calendar.forecast_value),
              previous_value = COALESCE(excluded.previous_value, ff_calendar.previous_value),
+             series_id      = COALESCE(excluded.series_id, ff_calendar.series_id),
              fetched_at     = datetime('now')
         """,
         batch,
@@ -176,9 +204,10 @@ def sync_live() -> Dict[str, Any]:
                 forecast = (ev.get("forecast") or "").strip() or None
                 previous = (ev.get("previous") or "").strip() or None
 
+                series_id = FF_TO_FRED.get(event_name)
                 batch.append((
                     event_date, event_time, currency, impact, event_name,
-                    actual, forecast, previous, None, "ff_live",
+                    actual, forecast, previous, series_id, None, "ff_live",
                 ))
 
             if batch: