feat: Pattern Lab — historical backtest engine for pattern discovery

- Remove all built-in patterns (no proof of legitimacy); seed_builtin_patterns is now a no-op
- DB: add backtest_lab_runs table + backtest_hits/runs_count columns on patterns
- services/pattern_lab.py: build_historical_context (yfinance + RSI/MA200),
  run_ai_backtest (GPT-4o as historical analyst), evaluate_outcomes (actual moves at T+horizon)
- routers/pattern_lab.py: POST /run, POST /evaluate/{id}, GET /runs, DELETE /runs/{id},
  POST /save-pattern (promotes hit pattern to library with reliability counters)
- PatternLab.tsx: 34 preset events 2015-2025 (macro/geo/credit/fx/commodities/volatility/tech),
  3-panel layout — preset selector + wizard + run history, market data table,
  AI pattern cards with hit/miss outcome display, Save to Library button
- useApi.ts: usePatternLabRuns, useRunPatternLab, useEvaluatePatternLab, useSaveLabPattern, useDeleteLabRun
- Sidebar + App.tsx: /pattern-lab route + FlaskConical nav link

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/main.py

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 from fastapi import FastAPI
 from fastapi.middleware.cors import CORSMiddleware
 from routers import market_data, geopolitical, options, backtest, ai, portfolio, config, patterns, journal, cycle as cycle_router, profiles as profiles_router, reasoning as reasoning_router, knowledge as knowledge_router, options_vol as options_vol_router, analytics as analytics_router, risk as risk_router
+from routers import pattern_lab as pattern_lab_router
 from routers import logs as logs_router
 from routers import var as var_router
 from routers import reports as reports_router
@@ -117,6 +118,7 @@ app.include_router(logs_router.router)
 app.include_router(var_router.router)
 app.include_router(reports_router.router)
 app.include_router(institutional_router.router)
+app.include_router(pattern_lab_router.router)
 
 
 @app.get("/")

backend/routers/pattern_lab.py

@@ -0,0 +1,251 @@
+"""
+Pattern Lab router — historical backtest for pattern discovery.
+Prefix: /api/pattern-lab
+"""
+import json
+import uuid
+from datetime import datetime
+from typing import Optional, List
+
+from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException, BackgroundTasks
+from pydantic import BaseModel
+
+from services.database import get_conn, get_config, save_custom_pattern
+
+router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/pattern-lab", tags=["pattern-lab"])
+
+
+# ── Pydantic models ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+class RunRequest(BaseModel):
+    preset_id: Optional[str] = None
+    theme: str
+    analysis_date: str          # YYYY-MM-DD
+    horizon_days: int = 90
+    assets: List[str]
+    theme_hint: str
+
+
+class EvaluateRequest(BaseModel):
+    pass
+
+
+class SavePatternRequest(BaseModel):
+    run_id: str
+    pattern_index: int
+    name: Optional[str] = None
+    category: Optional[str] = None
+    signal_direction: Optional[str] = None
+    asset_class: Optional[str] = "indices"
+
+
+# ── Helpers ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def _get_run(run_id: str) -> dict:
+    conn = get_conn()
+    row = conn.execute("SELECT * FROM backtest_lab_runs WHERE id=?", (run_id,)).fetchone()
+    conn.close()
+    if not row:
+        raise HTTPException(404, "Run not found")
+    return dict(row)
+
+
+def _row_to_dict(row) -> dict:
+    d = dict(row)
+    for field in ("assets", "context_snapshot", "ai_result", "outcome"):
+        if d.get(field) and isinstance(d[field], str):
+            try:
+                d[field] = json.loads(d[field])
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+    return d
+
+
+# ── Endpoints ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+@router.post("/run")
+async def create_run(req: RunRequest):
+    """Build historical context + run AI analysis. Returns run with AI patterns."""
+    from services.pattern_lab import build_historical_context, run_ai_backtest
+
+    openai_key = get_config("openai_api_key") or ""
+    if not openai_key:
+        raise HTTPException(400, "OpenAI API key not configured")
+
+    run_id = f"LAB_{uuid.uuid4().hex[:8].upper()}"
+    now    = datetime.utcnow().isoformat()
+
+    # Persist run in pending state
+    conn = get_conn()
+    conn.execute("""INSERT INTO backtest_lab_runs
+        (id, preset_id, theme, analysis_date, horizon_days, assets, theme_hint, status, created_at)
+        VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,'running',?)""", (
+        run_id, req.preset_id, req.theme, req.analysis_date,
+        req.horizon_days, json.dumps(req.assets), req.theme_hint, now,
+    ))
+    conn.commit()
+    conn.close()
+
+    try:
+        # Step 1: historical context
+        context = build_historical_context(req.analysis_date, req.assets)
+
+        # Step 2: AI analysis
+        ai_result = await run_ai_backtest(context, req.theme_hint, req.horizon_days, openai_key)
+
+        # Persist results
+        conn = get_conn()
+        conn.execute("""UPDATE backtest_lab_runs SET
+            context_snapshot=?, ai_result=?, status='done'
+            WHERE id=?""", (
+            json.dumps(context), json.dumps(ai_result), run_id,
+        ))
+        conn.commit()
+        conn.close()
+
+        return {
+            "run_id":   run_id,
+            "status":   "done",
+            "context":  context,
+            "ai_result": ai_result,
+        }
+
+    except Exception as e:
+        conn = get_conn()
+        conn.execute("UPDATE backtest_lab_runs SET status='error', error_msg=? WHERE id=?",
+                     (str(e), run_id))
+        conn.commit()
+        conn.close()
+        raise HTTPException(500, f"Backtest failed: {e}")
+
+
+@router.post("/evaluate/{run_id}")
+def evaluate_run(run_id: str):
+    """Fetch actual prices at T+horizon and score each AI pattern."""
+    from services.pattern_lab import evaluate_outcomes
+
+    run = _get_run(run_id)
+    if run["status"] not in ("done", "evaluated"):
+        raise HTTPException(400, f"Run status is '{run['status']}', must be 'done' first")
+
+    outcomes = evaluate_outcomes(run)
+
+    conn = get_conn()
+    conn.execute("""UPDATE backtest_lab_runs SET
+        outcome=?, status='evaluated', evaluated_at=datetime('now')
+        WHERE id=?""", (json.dumps(outcomes), run_id))
+    conn.commit()
+    conn.close()
+
+    return {"run_id": run_id, "outcomes": outcomes}
+
+
+@router.get("/runs")
+def list_runs():
+    conn = get_conn()
+    rows = conn.execute("""SELECT id, preset_id, theme, analysis_date, horizon_days,
+        assets, status, created_at, evaluated_at,
+        outcome, ai_result
+        FROM backtest_lab_runs ORDER BY created_at DESC LIMIT 100""").fetchall()
+    conn.close()
+    return [_row_to_dict(r) for r in rows]
+
+
+@router.get("/runs/{run_id}")
+def get_run(run_id: str):
+    return _row_to_dict(_get_run(run_id))
+
+
+@router.delete("/runs/{run_id}")
+def delete_run(run_id: str):
+    conn = get_conn()
+    conn.execute("DELETE FROM backtest_lab_runs WHERE id=?", (run_id,))
+    conn.commit()
+    conn.close()
+    return {"deleted": run_id}
+
+
+@router.post("/save-pattern")
+def save_pattern_from_run(req: SavePatternRequest):
+    """Promote one AI-suggested pattern (with its outcome) to the pattern library."""
+    run = _get_run(req.run_id)
+
+    ai_result = json.loads(run.get("ai_result") or "{}")
+    patterns  = ai_result.get("patterns", [])
+    if req.pattern_index >= len(patterns):
+        raise HTTPException(400, "pattern_index out of range")
+
+    pat = patterns[req.pattern_index]
+    outcome_list: list = []
+    if run.get("outcome"):
+        try:
+            outcome_list = json.loads(run["outcome"]) if isinstance(run["outcome"], str) else run["outcome"]
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+
+    # Match outcome for this pattern
+    outcome = next((o for o in outcome_list if o.get("pattern_name") == pat.get("name")), None)
+    hit = bool(outcome.get("hit")) if outcome else None
+    actual_move = outcome.get("actual_move_pct") if outcome else None
+
+    pat_name = req.name or pat.get("name", "Unnamed Pattern")
+
+    # Check if same name already exists → update reliability counters
+    conn = get_conn()
+    existing = conn.execute(
+        "SELECT id, backtest_hits, backtest_runs_count FROM custom_patterns WHERE name=? AND source='backtested'",
+        (pat_name,)
+    ).fetchone()
+
+    if existing:
+        new_hits  = (existing["backtest_hits"] or 0) + (1 if hit else 0)
+        new_runs  = (existing["backtest_runs_count"] or 0) + 1
+        conn.execute("""UPDATE custom_patterns
+            SET backtest_hits=?, backtest_runs_count=?, updated_at=datetime('now')
+            WHERE id=?""", (new_hits, new_runs, existing["id"]))
+        conn.commit()
+        conn.close()
+        return {"saved": existing["id"], "action": "updated", "backtest_hits": new_hits, "backtest_runs_count": new_runs}
+
+    # New pattern
+    new_id = f"P_LAB_{uuid.uuid4().hex[:6].upper()}"
+    historical_instance = {
+        "date":       run["analysis_date"],
+        "horizon":    run["horizon_days"],
+        "theme":      run["theme"],
+        "hit":        hit,
+        "actual_move_pct": actual_move,
+    }
+
+    conn.execute("""INSERT INTO custom_patterns (
+        id, name, description, triggers, keywords, historical_instances,
+        suggested_trades, asset_class, expected_move_pct, probability,
+        horizon_days, source, category, signal_direction,
+        backtest_hits, backtest_runs_count,
+        is_active, taxonomy_path, updated_at
+    ) VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,'backtested',?,?,?,?,1,'[]',datetime('now'))""", (
+        new_id,
+        pat_name,
+        pat.get("description", ""),
+        json.dumps([]),
+        json.dumps([]),
+        json.dumps([historical_instance]),
+        json.dumps([{
+            "underlying":         pat.get("underlying", ""),
+            "strategy":           pat.get("strategy", ""),
+            "expected_move_pct":  pat.get("expected_move_pct", 0),
+            "asset_class":        req.asset_class,
+        }]),
+        req.asset_class or "indices",
+        pat.get("expected_move_pct", 0),
+        pat.get("confidence", 50) / 100,
+        pat.get("horizon_days", run["horizon_days"]),
+        req.category or pat.get("category", ""),
+        req.signal_direction or pat.get("signal_direction", ""),
+        1 if hit else 0,
+        1,
+    ))
+    conn.commit()
+    conn.close()
+
+    return {"saved": new_id, "action": "created", "backtest_hits": 1 if hit else 0, "backtest_runs_count": 1}

backend/services/database.py

@@ -83,12 +83,39 @@ def init_db():
         "ALTER TABLE custom_patterns ADD COLUMN signal_direction TEXT",
         # Pattern Explorer — taxonomy tree path
         "ALTER TABLE custom_patterns ADD COLUMN taxonomy_path TEXT DEFAULT '[]'",
+        # Pattern Lab — backtest reliability tracking
+        "ALTER TABLE custom_patterns ADD COLUMN backtest_hits INTEGER DEFAULT 0",
+        "ALTER TABLE custom_patterns ADD COLUMN backtest_runs_count INTEGER DEFAULT 0",
+        # Remove all built-in patterns (no proof of legitimacy)
+        "DELETE FROM custom_patterns WHERE source = 'builtin'",
     ]:
         try:
             c.execute(_sql)
         except Exception:
             pass
 
+    # Pattern Lab — historical backtest runs
+    c.execute("""CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS backtest_lab_runs (
+        id TEXT PRIMARY KEY,
+        preset_id TEXT,
+        theme TEXT NOT NULL,
+        analysis_date TEXT NOT NULL,
+        horizon_days INTEGER NOT NULL,
+        assets TEXT NOT NULL,
+        theme_hint TEXT,
+        context_snapshot TEXT,
+        ai_result TEXT,
+        outcome TEXT,
+        status TEXT DEFAULT 'pending',
+        error_msg TEXT,
+        created_at TEXT DEFAULT (datetime('now')),
+        evaluated_at TEXT
+    )""")
+    try:
+        c.execute("CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_blr_date ON backtest_lab_runs(analysis_date DESC)")
+    except Exception:
+        pass
+
     # Phase 4.2 — Régime clusters (K-Means sur gauges macro)
     c.execute("""CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS regime_clusters (
         id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY AUTOINCREMENT,
@@ -885,37 +912,8 @@ def update_position_notes(pos_id: str, notes: str):
 # ── Custom Patterns ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 def seed_builtin_patterns(builtin_patterns: List[Dict[str, Any]]):
-    """Seed built-in patterns into DB (idempotent). Always updates taxonomy_path."""
-    conn = get_conn()
-    existing = {r[0] for r in conn.execute("SELECT id FROM custom_patterns").fetchall()}
-    for p in builtin_patterns:
-        taxonomy_json = json.dumps(p.get("taxonomy_path", []))
-        if p["id"] not in existing:
-            conn.execute("""INSERT INTO custom_patterns (
-                id, name, description, triggers, keywords, historical_instances,
-                suggested_trades, asset_class, expected_move_pct, probability,
-                horizon_days, source, is_active, taxonomy_path, updated_at
-            ) VALUES (?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,?,'builtin',1,?,datetime('now'))""", (
-                p["id"],
-                p.get("name", ""),
-                p.get("description", ""),
-                json.dumps(p.get("triggers", [])),
-                json.dumps(p.get("keywords", [])),
-                json.dumps(p.get("historical_instances", [])),
-                json.dumps(p.get("suggested_trades", [])),
-                p.get("asset_class", "indices"),
-                p.get("expected_move_pct", 0),
-                p.get("probability", 0.5),
-                p.get("horizon_days", 30),
-                taxonomy_json,
-            ))
-        else:
-            conn.execute(
-                "UPDATE custom_patterns SET taxonomy_path=? WHERE id=? AND source='builtin'",
-                (taxonomy_json, p["id"])
-            )
-    conn.commit()
-    conn.close()
+    """No-op: built-in patterns removed in favour of Pattern Lab backtested patterns."""
+    pass
 
 
 def save_custom_pattern(pattern: Dict[str, Any]) -> str:

backend/services/pattern_lab.py

@@ -0,0 +1,241 @@
+"""
+Pattern Lab — Historical backtest engine for pattern discovery.
+
+Workflow:
+  1. build_historical_context(date, tickers) — pull prices + technicals via yfinance
+  2. run_ai_backtest(context, hint, horizon) — GPT-4o acts as analyst on that past date
+  3. evaluate_outcomes(run) — fetch actual prices at T+horizon, score each idea
+"""
+import json
+import logging
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta
+from typing import Optional
+
+import numpy as np
+import pandas as pd
+import yfinance as yf
+
+_log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+# ── Context builder ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def _fetch_ticker(ticker: str, start: str, end: str) -> Optional[pd.DataFrame]:
+    try:
+        df = yf.download(ticker, start=start, end=end, progress=False, auto_adjust=True)
+        if isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
+            df.columns = df.columns.get_level_values(0)
+        return df if not df.empty else None
+    except Exception as e:
+        _log.warning(f"[PatternLab] yfinance error for {ticker}: {e}")
+        return None
+
+
+def _rsi(closes: pd.Series, period: int = 14) -> Optional[float]:
+    if len(closes) < period + 1:
+        return None
+    delta = closes.diff()
+    gain = delta.clip(lower=0).rolling(period).mean()
+    loss = (-delta.clip(upper=0)).rolling(period).mean()
+    rs = gain / loss
+    val = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs.iloc[-1]))
+    return round(float(val), 1) if not np.isnan(val) else None
+
+
+def build_historical_context(analysis_date: str, tickers: list) -> dict:
+    dt = datetime.strptime(analysis_date, "%Y-%m-%d")
+    hist_start = (dt - timedelta(days=400)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+    hist_end   = (dt + timedelta(days=3)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+
+    context: dict = {"analysis_date": analysis_date, "assets": {}}
+
+    all_tickers = list(tickers)
+    if "^VIX" not in all_tickers:
+        all_tickers.append("^VIX")
+
+    for ticker in all_tickers:
+        df = _fetch_ticker(ticker, hist_start, hist_end)
+        if df is None or "Close" not in df.columns:
+            context["assets"][ticker] = {"error": "no data"}
+            continue
+
+        df.index = pd.to_datetime(df.index).tz_localize(None)
+        sub = df[df.index.normalize() <= dt].copy()
+        if sub.empty:
+            context["assets"][ticker] = {"error": "no data before date"}
+            continue
+
+        closes = sub["Close"].dropna()
+        price = float(closes.iloc[-1])
+
+        def ret(days: int) -> Optional[float]:
+            past = sub[sub.index.normalize() <= dt - timedelta(days=days)]
+            if past.empty:
+                return None
+            p0 = float(past["Close"].dropna().iloc[-1])
+            return round((price / p0 - 1) * 100, 2) if p0 else None
+
+        ma50  = round(float(closes.tail(50).mean()), 2) if len(closes) >= 50 else None
+        ma200 = round(float(closes.tail(200).mean()), 2) if len(closes) >= 200 else None
+
+        context["assets"][ticker] = {
+            "price":           round(price, 4),
+            "ret_1w":          ret(5),
+            "ret_1m":          ret(21),
+            "ret_3m":          ret(63),
+            "ret_ytd":         ret(int((dt - datetime(dt.year, 1, 1)).days)),
+            "rsi_14":          _rsi(closes.tail(60)),
+            "ma50":            ma50,
+            "ma200":           ma200,
+            "pct_from_ma200":  round((price / ma200 - 1) * 100, 2) if ma200 else None,
+        }
+
+    return context
+
+
+# ── AI analysis ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+async def run_ai_backtest(context: dict, theme_hint: str, horizon_days: int, openai_key: str) -> dict:
+    from openai import AsyncOpenAI
+    client = AsyncOpenAI(api_key=openai_key)
+
+    analysis_date = context["analysis_date"]
+    assets = context.get("assets", {})
+
+    lines = []
+    for ticker, d in assets.items():
+        if "error" in d:
+            continue
+        line = f"  {ticker}: {d.get('price', '?')}"
+        if d.get("ret_1w")  is not None: line += f"  1W:{d['ret_1w']:+.1f}%"
+        if d.get("ret_1m")  is not None: line += f"  1M:{d['ret_1m']:+.1f}%"
+        if d.get("ret_3m")  is not None: line += f"  3M:{d['ret_3m']:+.1f}%"
+        if d.get("rsi_14")  is not None: line += f"  RSI:{d['rsi_14']:.0f}"
+        if d.get("pct_from_ma200") is not None: line += f"  vsMA200:{d['pct_from_ma200']:+.1f}%"
+        lines.append(line)
+
+    market_block = "\n".join(lines) if lines else "No market data available."
+
+    prompt = f"""You are a senior macro/options trader. Today is {analysis_date}.
+You have full knowledge of what was happening in markets and geopolitics on this specific date.
+
+## REAL MARKET DATA — {analysis_date}
+{market_block}
+
+## CONTEXT / THEME
+{theme_hint}
+
+## INSTRUCTIONS
+Using the market data above AND your knowledge of the historical context on {analysis_date}:
+- Identify 2 to 4 high-conviction trade patterns that were present at this time.
+- For each pattern, recommend the best options/futures strategy.
+- The investment horizon is {horizon_days} days from {analysis_date}.
+
+For each pattern you MUST specify:
+- The primary underlying ticker (must be a real, liquid, yfinance-compatible symbol)
+- The expected percentage move in the UNDERLYING over {horizon_days} days
+- The expected direction: "up", "down", or "any" (for volatility plays)
+- A confidence score 0–100
+
+Return ONLY this valid JSON (no markdown, no explanation):
+{{
+  "patterns": [
+    {{
+      "name": "Short descriptive pattern name",
+      "description": "What you observed and why this matters",
+      "category": "géopolitique|macro_monétaire|technique|commodités_supply|risk_off|flux_saisonnier|géo_économique|crédit_stress",
+      "signal_direction": "bullish|bearish|volatility|neutral",
+      "underlying": "TICKER",
+      "strategy": "e.g. long put, long call, straddle, call spread",
+      "expected_move_pct": 12.5,
+      "expected_direction": "up|down|any",
+      "horizon_days": {horizon_days},
+      "confidence": 72,
+      "rationale": "Concise explanation of the trade thesis at this historical moment"
+    }}
+  ]
+}}"""
+
+    try:
+        resp = await client.chat.completions.create(
+            model="gpt-4o",
+            messages=[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
+            temperature=0.2,
+            response_format={"type": "json_object"},
+            timeout=60,
+        )
+        raw = resp.choices[0].message.content or "{}"
+        return json.loads(raw)
+    except Exception as e:
+        _log.error(f"[PatternLab] AI backtest failed: {e}")
+        return {"patterns": [], "error": str(e)}
+
+
+# ── Outcome evaluator ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+def evaluate_outcomes(run: dict) -> list:
+    analysis_date = run["analysis_date"]
+    horizon_days  = int(run["horizon_days"])
+    ai_result     = json.loads(run.get("ai_result") or "{}")
+    patterns      = ai_result.get("patterns", [])
+
+    dt       = datetime.strptime(analysis_date, "%Y-%m-%d")
+    eval_dt  = dt + timedelta(days=horizon_days)
+    # Don't evaluate if eval date is in the future
+    if eval_dt.date() >= datetime.utcnow().date():
+        return [{"error": f"Evaluation date {eval_dt.date()} is in the future"}]
+
+    fetch_start = (dt - timedelta(days=5)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+    fetch_end   = (eval_dt + timedelta(days=5)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
+
+    outcomes = []
+    for pat in patterns:
+        ticker = pat.get("underlying", "")
+        if not ticker:
+            continue
+
+        df = _fetch_ticker(ticker, fetch_start, fetch_end)
+        if df is None or "Close" not in df.columns:
+            outcomes.append({"pattern_name": pat.get("name"), "underlying": ticker, "error": "no data"})
+            continue
+
+        df.index = pd.to_datetime(df.index).tz_localize(None)
+
+        entry_sub = df[df.index.normalize() <= dt]
+        exit_sub  = df[df.index.normalize() <= eval_dt]
+        if entry_sub.empty or exit_sub.empty:
+            outcomes.append({"pattern_name": pat.get("name"), "underlying": ticker, "error": "insufficient history"})
+            continue
+
+        entry_price = float(entry_sub["Close"].dropna().iloc[-1])
+        exit_price  = float(exit_sub["Close"].dropna().iloc[-1])
+        actual_move = round((exit_price / entry_price - 1) * 100, 2)
+
+        expected_dir  = pat.get("expected_direction", "any")
+        expected_move = float(pat.get("expected_move_pct", 0))
+        threshold     = max(expected_move * 0.5, 3.0)  # at least 50% of expected, min 3%
+
+        if expected_dir == "up":
+            hit = actual_move >= threshold
+        elif expected_dir == "down":
+            hit = actual_move <= -threshold
+        else:  # any / volatility
+            hit = abs(actual_move) >= threshold
+
+        outcomes.append({
+            "pattern_name":    pat.get("name"),
+            "underlying":      ticker,
+            "strategy":        pat.get("strategy", ""),
+            "signal_direction": pat.get("signal_direction", ""),
+            "expected_direction": expected_dir,
+            "expected_move_pct":  expected_move,
+            "actual_move_pct":    actual_move,
+            "entry_price":     round(entry_price, 4),
+            "exit_price":      round(exit_price, 4),
+            "entry_date":      analysis_date,
+            "exit_date":       eval_dt.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
+            "hit":             hit,
+            "confidence":      pat.get("confidence", 0),
+        })
+
+    return outcomes

frontend/src/App.tsx

@@ -10,6 +10,7 @@ import CalendarPage from './pages/CalendarPage'
 import Portfolio from './pages/Portfolio'
 import PatternEditor from './pages/PatternEditor'
 import PatternExplorer from './pages/PatternExplorer'
+import PatternLab from './pages/PatternLab'
 import JournalDeBord from './pages/JournalDeBord'
 import RapportIA from './pages/RapportIA'
 import SuperContexte from './pages/SuperContexte'
@@ -43,6 +44,7 @@ export default function App() {
             <Route path="/options" element={<OptionsLab />} />
             <Route path="/patterns" element={<PatternExplorer />} />
             <Route path="/patterns/edit" element={<PatternEditor />} />
+            <Route path="/pattern-lab" element={<PatternLab />} />
             <Route path="/portfolio" element={<Portfolio />} />
             <Route path="/backtest" element={<Backtest />} />
             <Route path="/calendar" element={<CalendarPage />} />

frontend/src/components/layout/Sidebar.tsx

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ const nav = [
   { to: '/macro', icon: Activity, label: 'Macro Regime' },
   { to: '/options', icon: TrendingUp, label: 'Options Lab' },
   { to: '/patterns', icon: Zap, label: 'Patterns' },
+  { to: '/pattern-lab', icon: FlaskConical, label: 'Pattern Lab' },
   { to: '/portfolio', icon: DollarSign, label: 'Portfolio' },
   { to: '/journal', icon: BookOpen, label: 'Trading Journal' },
   { to: '/rapport', icon: FileBarChart, label: 'Cycle Report' },

frontend/src/hooks/useApi.ts

@@ -958,3 +958,52 @@ export const useRefreshInstitutionalReports = () =>
     mutationFn: (report_type?: string) =>
       api.post('/institutional/refresh', null, { params: report_type ? { report_type } : {} }).then(r => r.data),
   })
+
+// ── Pattern Lab ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+export const usePatternLabRuns = () =>
+  useQuery({
+    queryKey: ['pattern-lab-runs'],
+    queryFn: () => api.get('/pattern-lab/runs').then(r => r.data),
+    staleTime: 30_000,
+  })
+
+export const useRunPatternLab = () => {
+  const qc = useQueryClient()
+  return useMutation({
+    mutationFn: (body: {
+      preset_id?: string; theme: string; analysis_date: string;
+      horizon_days: number; assets: string[]; theme_hint: string;
+    }) => api.post('/pattern-lab/run', body).then(r => r.data),
+    onSuccess: () => qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['pattern-lab-runs'] }),
+  })
+}
+
+export const useEvaluatePatternLab = () => {
+  const qc = useQueryClient()
+  return useMutation({
+    mutationFn: (run_id: string) => api.post(`/pattern-lab/evaluate/${run_id}`, {}).then(r => r.data),
+    onSuccess: () => qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['pattern-lab-runs'] }),
+  })
+}
+
+export const useSaveLabPattern = () => {
+  const qc = useQueryClient()
+  return useMutation({
+    mutationFn: (body: {
+      run_id: string; pattern_index: number; name?: string;
+      category?: string; signal_direction?: string; asset_class?: string;
+    }) => api.post('/pattern-lab/save-pattern', body).then(r => r.data),
+    onSuccess: () => {
+      qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['all-patterns'] })
+      qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['pattern-lab-runs'] })
+    },
+  })
+}
+
+export const useDeleteLabRun = () => {
+  const qc = useQueryClient()
+  return useMutation({
+    mutationFn: (run_id: string) => api.delete(`/pattern-lab/runs/${run_id}`).then(r => r.data),
+    onSuccess: () => qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['pattern-lab-runs'] }),
+  })
+}

frontend/src/pages/PatternLab.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,573 @@
+import { useState, useMemo } from 'react'
+import {
+  useRunPatternLab, useEvaluatePatternLab, useSaveLabPattern,
+  usePatternLabRuns, useDeleteLabRun,
+} from '../hooks/useApi'
+import {
+  FlaskConical, Play, ChevronRight, CheckCircle2, XCircle,
+  Clock, Trash2, Save, RefreshCw, Search, CalendarDays,
+  TrendingUp, TrendingDown, Zap, BarChart2, AlertTriangle,
+} from 'lucide-react'
+import clsx from 'clsx'
+
+// ── Preset catalogue (2015-2025, 34 events) ────────────────────────────────────
+
+interface Preset {
+  id: string; year: number; label: string; date: string
+  category: string; horizon_days: number; assets: string[]; hint: string
+}
+
+const PRESETS: Preset[] = [
+  { id: 'china-deval-2015',       year: 2015, label: 'China CNY Devaluation',           date: '2015-08-11', category: 'fx_macro',    horizon_days: 60,  assets: ['SPY','FXI','GLD','UUP','EEM'],          hint: 'China surprises markets with a yuan devaluation shock. Global risk-off, EM currencies crash, commodities sell. Shanghai composite already down 30% from peak.' },
+  { id: 'oil-crash-2016',         year: 2016, label: 'Oil Crash to $26',                date: '2016-01-20', category: 'commodities', horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['USO','XLE','HYG','SPY','GLD'],          hint: 'WTI crude at 12-year lows near $26. Energy sector destruction, high-yield credit stress from E&P distress. Fed on hold as global deflation spreads.' },
+  { id: 'brexit-2016',            year: 2016, label: 'Brexit Vote Shock',               date: '2016-06-24', category: 'geopolitical', horizon_days: 60, assets: ['GBPUSD=X','EWU','SPY','GLD','TLT'],     hint: 'UK votes Leave 52-48. GBP flash crash -10% overnight. European bank stocks collapse. Flight to safety — gilts, gold, USD. BoE emergency measures expected.' },
+  { id: 'trump-elect-2016',       year: 2016, label: 'Trump Election 2016',             date: '2016-11-09', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['SPY','TLT','GLD','UUP','XLF'],          hint: 'Trump wins US presidential election. Reflation trade ignites: banks surge, bonds sell, USD rallies sharply, gold dumps, infrastructure/defense stocks soar.' },
+  { id: 'volmageddon-2018',       year: 2018, label: 'Volmageddon — XIV Collapse',      date: '2018-02-05', category: 'volatility',  horizon_days: 30,  assets: ['SPY','TLT','GLD','QQQ'],                hint: 'VIX spikes 115% intraday. Inverse-vol ETPs (XIV, SVXY) collapse -90%. Market liquidity evaporates. Fed hiking into froth. Flash crash with rapid recovery.' },
+  { id: 'trade-war-2018',         year: 2018, label: 'US-China Trade War Start',        date: '2018-03-22', category: 'geopolitical', horizon_days: 90, assets: ['SPY','FXI','QQQ','UUP','EEM'],          hint: 'Trump announces $60B tariffs on China under Section 301. Trade war declared. Tech and industrials sell. China threatens retaliation on US agriculture and autos.' },
+  { id: 'turkey-em-2018',         year: 2018, label: 'Turkey / EM Currency Crisis',     date: '2018-08-10', category: 'fx_macro',    horizon_days: 60,  assets: ['TUR','EEM','UUP','GLD','EWZ'],          hint: 'TRY crashes 20% in a day. Turkey in full currency crisis — Erdogan conflict with Fed. EM contagion to South Africa, Argentina, Brazil. USD wrecking ball.' },
+  { id: 'q4-selloff-2018',        year: 2018, label: 'Q4 2018 Fed Overtightening',      date: '2018-10-10', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['SPY','QQQ','HYG','TLT','GLD'],          hint: "Powell 'long way from neutral' comment. Growth scare, credit spread widening. SPX enters 20% drawdown into Christmas. Fed eventually pivots Jan 2019." },
+  { id: 'fed-pivot-2019',         year: 2019, label: 'Fed Dovish Pivot',                date: '2019-01-04', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['SPY','TLT','GLD','EEM','UUP'],          hint: 'Powell signals patience — hiking cycle pause. Risk assets explode higher. USD weakens. EM and gold rally. Goldilocks scenario emerges after Q4 2018 crash.' },
+  { id: 'yield-inversion-2019',   year: 2019, label: 'Yield Curve Inversion',           date: '2019-03-22', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 120, assets: ['TLT','XLF','SPY','GLD','IEF'],          hint: '3M-10Y US Treasury yield curve inverts for first time since 2007. Recession indicator flashing. Banks sell. Gold and long bonds rally as growth fears build.' },
+  { id: 'aramco-attack-2019',     year: 2019, label: 'Saudi Aramco Facility Attack',    date: '2019-09-16', category: 'geopolitical', horizon_days: 30, assets: ['USO','GLD','SPY','XLE','UUP'],          hint: 'Drone attacks on Abqaiq and Khurais take out 5% of global oil supply. WTI gaps +15% at open. Geopolitical risk premium spikes. Then fades fast.' },
+  { id: 'repo-stress-2019',       year: 2019, label: 'Repo Market Liquidity Stress',    date: '2019-09-17', category: 'credit',      horizon_days: 30,  assets: ['TLT','SPY','GLD','UUP'],                hint: 'Overnight repo rates spike to 10%, overwhelming the Fed funds target. Fed emergency repo operations. Banking system dollar liquidity stress. Precursor to QE4.' },
+  { id: 'covid-crash-2020',       year: 2020, label: 'COVID Pandemic Crash',            date: '2020-02-24', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['SPY','QQQ','GLD','TLT','USO'],          hint: 'COVID spreads globally. Italy in lockdown. Markets price pandemic. SPX enters fastest bear market in history — 35% in 33 days. VIX touches 85. Fed emergency cut.' },
+  { id: 'oil-negative-2020',      year: 2020, label: 'Oil Goes Negative (-$37)',         date: '2020-04-20', category: 'commodities', horizon_days: 60, assets: ['USO','XLE','SPY','UUP','HYG'],          hint: 'WTI May futures settle at -$37.63. Physical storage full. Zero demand from lockdowns. Energy sector existential risk. OPEC+ emergency cut already announced.' },
+  { id: 'covid-recovery-2020',    year: 2020, label: 'COVID Recovery / QE Infinity',    date: '2020-04-09', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['SPY','QQQ','GLD','TLT','EEM'],          hint: 'Fed announces unlimited QE + corporate bond buying. $2.2T CARES Act. Markets stage massive recovery. Tech leads. Gold rallies to ATH. Mega-cap dominance begins.' },
+  { id: 'us-election-2020',       year: 2020, label: 'Biden Election / Vaccine Rally',  date: '2020-11-04', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['SPY','QQQ','XLE','GLD','IWM'],          hint: 'Biden wins, split Congress. Pfizer vaccine +90% efficacy announced same week. Massive rotation: value vs growth, energy vs tech. Small caps surge. Gold drops.' },
+  { id: 'gme-squeeze-2021',       year: 2021, label: 'GME Short Squeeze / WSB',         date: '2021-01-27', category: 'credit',      horizon_days: 30,  assets: ['SPY','QQQ','IWM','HYG','TLT'],          hint: 'WallStreetBets coordinates GME squeeze to $480. Robinhood halts buying. Hedge fund forced deleveraging. Systemic risk fear. Silver squeeze attempt follows.' },
+  { id: 'reflation-2021',         year: 2021, label: 'Reflation Trade / Bond Crash',    date: '2021-02-25', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 60,  assets: ['TLT','QQQ','XLE','XLF','GLD'],          hint: '10Y yields spike to 1.6%. Bond massacre. Tech rotation as rates hurt valuations. Value/cyclicals surge. Energy, banks, materials outperform. Inflation trade.' },
+  { id: 'taper-2021',             year: 2021, label: 'Fed Tapering Announcement',       date: '2021-11-03', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['TLT','GLD','EEM','UUP','SPY'],          hint: 'Fed officially announces QE tapering. Hawkish pivot accelerates. EM selloff. USD strengthens. Gold initially weak. Growth stocks start multi-month decline.' },
+  { id: 'russia-ukraine-2022',    year: 2022, label: 'Russia Invades Ukraine',          date: '2022-02-24', category: 'geopolitical', horizon_days: 90, assets: ['USO','GLD','WEAT','SPY','EWG'],         hint: 'Full-scale Russian invasion. Energy price shock — European gas 10x. Wheat/corn spike +30%. European recession fear. Germany energy vulnerability. NATO unity.' },
+  { id: 'fed-rate-shock-2022',    year: 2022, label: 'Fed Rate Shock — CPI 9.1%',       date: '2022-06-13', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['TLT','SPY','QQQ','GLD','UUP'],          hint: 'CPI prints 9.1%. Fed goes 75bps (first time since 1994). Rate shock across all assets. Everything sold — bonds, stocks, gold, crypto. DXY to 114. Bear market.' },
+  { id: 'energy-crisis-eu-2022',  year: 2022, label: 'European Energy Crisis',          date: '2022-08-26', category: 'commodities', horizon_days: 90, assets: ['EURUSD=X','EWG','SPY','GLD','TLT'],     hint: 'EU nat gas prices at 10x historical average. EUR/USD breaks parity. Germany industry threatens shutdown. ECB caught between inflation and recession.' },
+  { id: 'gilt-crisis-2022',       year: 2022, label: 'UK Gilt Crisis / LDI Implosion',  date: '2022-09-23', category: 'credit',      horizon_days: 30,  assets: ['GBPUSD=X','EWU','TLT','GLD','SPY'],    hint: 'Truss mini-budget — unfunded £45B tax cuts. GBP crashes to 1.035. 30Y gilt yields +100bps in hours. LDI pension funds margin calls. BoE emergency QE.' },
+  { id: 'ftx-2022',               year: 2022, label: 'FTX Crypto Exchange Collapse',    date: '2022-11-08', category: 'credit',      horizon_days: 60,  assets: ['BTC-USD','ETH-USD','SPY','GLD','QQQ'],  hint: 'FTX halts withdrawals. $8B hole. Alameda Research insolvent. Crypto contagion: Genesis, BlockFi. Bitcoin -75% ytd. Regulatory crackdown imminent. Crypto winter.' },
+  { id: 'china-zero-covid-2022',  year: 2022, label: 'China Zero-COVID Exit',           date: '2022-12-07', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['FXI','EEM','USO','GLD','EWJ'],          hint: 'China abruptly abandons zero-COVID after Urumqi protests. Reopening trade ignites. Commodities demand surge expected. But wave of infections causes volatility.' },
+  { id: 'boj-yyc-2023',           year: 2023, label: 'BoJ YCC Band Widening',           date: '2023-01-18', category: 'fx_macro',    horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['USDJPY=X','EWJ','TLT','GLD','SPY'],     hint: 'BoJ widens YCC band to ±50bps surprise. JPY surges 3%. JGB yields spike. Global carry trade unwind risk. BoJ forced into bond buying. Yields globally affected.' },
+  { id: 'svb-2023',               year: 2023, label: 'SVB Banking Crisis',              date: '2023-03-10', category: 'credit',      horizon_days: 30,  assets: ['XLF','TLT','GLD','SPY','UUP'],          hint: 'Silicon Valley Bank fails — largest US bank failure since 2008. Signature Bank closes. Contagion to Credit Suisse. Fed BTFP emergency facility. Deposit flight fear.' },
+  { id: 'opec-cut-2023',          year: 2023, label: 'OPEC+ Surprise Production Cut',   date: '2023-04-02', category: 'commodities', horizon_days: 60, assets: ['USO','XLE','SPY','GLD','UUP'],          hint: 'OPEC+ shocks with 1.66Mb/d voluntary cuts beyond existing deal. WTI +6% in a day. Energy stocks surge. Inflation re-acceleration fear. Saudi strategy shift.' },
+  { id: 'debt-ceiling-2023',      year: 2023, label: 'US Debt Ceiling X-Date',          date: '2023-05-24', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 30,  assets: ['TLT','SPY','GLD','UUP','BIL'],          hint: 'Treasury X-date imminent. T-bill rates spike on short-end. Dollar stress. CDS on US sovereign widen. Last-minute Bipartisan deal expected but tail risk real.' },
+  { id: 'ai-mania-2023',          year: 2023, label: 'AI Mania — Nvidia Surge',         date: '2023-05-25', category: 'tech',        horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['QQQ','SPY','SMH','TLT','GLD'],          hint: 'Nvidia Q1 blowout — revenue guidance +50%. AI bubble narrative goes mainstream. Mag7 concentration soars. Breadth collapses. Tech leads while rest of market flat.' },
+  { id: 'iran-israel-2024',       year: 2024, label: 'Iran Direct Attack on Israel',    date: '2024-04-14', category: 'geopolitical', horizon_days: 30, assets: ['GLD','USO','SPY','TLT','UUP'],          hint: 'Iran launches 300+ drones/missiles at Israel in first-ever direct attack. Israel intercepts ~99%. Gold spikes to ATH. Oil +3%. Then rapid de-escalation. Premium collapses.' },
+  { id: 'carry-unwind-2024',      year: 2024, label: 'JPY Carry Trade Unwind',          date: '2024-08-05', category: 'fx_macro',    horizon_days: 30,  assets: ['USDJPY=X','EWJ','SPY','GLD','TLT'],     hint: 'BoJ surprise rate hike triggers unwinding of $4T yen carry trade. Nikkei -12% in one session. VIX spikes to 65. Global deleveraging. Rapid recovery within 2 weeks.' },
+  { id: 'china-stimulus-2024',    year: 2024, label: 'China Stimulus Bazooka',          date: '2024-09-24', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 60,  assets: ['FXI','EEM','KWEB','USO','GLD'],         hint: 'PBOC surprises with rate cuts + reserve ratio cut + property support. Chinese equities +25% in 2 weeks. Commodity demand surge expected. Copper, iron ore, oil up.' },
+  { id: 'trump-elect-2024',       year: 2024, label: 'Trump Election 2024 / Red Sweep', date: '2024-11-06', category: 'macro',       horizon_days: 90,  assets: ['SPY','QQQ','TLT','UUP','BTC-USD'],      hint: 'Trump wins presidency + Republican Congress. Reflation 2.0: tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs. USD surges. Crypto explodes. Europe and EM underperform. Bonds sell.' },
+  { id: 'trump-tariff-2025',      year: 2025, label: 'Trump Tariff Liberation Day',     date: '2025-04-02', category: 'geopolitical', horizon_days: 90, assets: ['SPY','QQQ','GLD','UUP','EEM'],          hint: 'Trump announces 145% tariffs on China + 10% universal tariff. Largest trade war since 1930. Recession fear. SPX -15% in 3 days. Gold ATH $3200. Treasury yields volatile.' },
+]
+
+const CATEGORIES: Record<string, { label: string; color: string }> = {
+  macro:       { label: 'Macro',       color: 'bg-blue-600'    },
+  geopolitical:{ label: 'Geopolitical',color: 'bg-red-700'     },
+  commodities: { label: 'Commodities', color: 'bg-amber-600'   },
+  fx_macro:    { label: 'FX/Macro',    color: 'bg-violet-600'  },
+  credit:      { label: 'Credit',      color: 'bg-orange-600'  },
+  volatility:  { label: 'Volatility',  color: 'bg-cyan-600'    },
+  tech:        { label: 'Tech',        color: 'bg-emerald-600' },
+}
+
+const YEARS = [...new Set(PRESETS.map(p => p.year))].sort()
+
+// ── Small components ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function CategoryBadge({ cat }: { cat: string }) {
+  const c = CATEGORIES[cat] ?? { label: cat, color: 'bg-slate-600' }
+  return <span className={`text-[10px] font-semibold px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded ${c.color} text-white`}>{c.label}</span>
+}
+
+function MoveBadge({ move, dir }: { move: number; dir: string }) {
+  const ok = dir === 'up' ? move > 0 : dir === 'down' ? move < 0 : Math.abs(move) >= 3
+  return (
+    <span className={clsx('text-xs font-mono font-semibold', ok ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400')}>
+      {move > 0 ? '+' : ''}{move.toFixed(1)}%
+    </span>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── Main page ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export default function PatternLab() {
+  const { data: runsData, isLoading: runsLoading } = usePatternLabRuns()
+  const { mutateAsync: runBacktest, isPending: running } = useRunPatternLab()
+  const { mutateAsync: evaluateRun,  isPending: evaluating } = useEvaluatePatternLab()
+  const { mutateAsync: savePattern } = useSaveLabPattern()
+  const { mutate: deleteRun } = useDeleteLabRun()
+
+  const runs: any[] = runsData ?? []
+
+  // ── Filters
+  const [search, setSearch]         = useState('')
+  const [yearFilter, setYearFilter] = useState<number | null>(null)
+  const [catFilter, setCatFilter]   = useState<string | null>(null)
+
+  // ── Active experiment
+  const [selected, setSelected]   = useState<Preset | null>(null)
+  const [editDate, setEditDate]   = useState('')
+  const [editHorizon, setEditHorizon] = useState(90)
+  const [editAssets, setEditAssets]   = useState('')
+  const [editHint, setEditHint]       = useState('')
+
+  // ── Current run state
+  const [activeRun, setActiveRun] = useState<any | null>(null)
+  const [savedIdx, setSavedIdx]   = useState<Set<number>>(new Set())
+  const [toast, setToast]         = useState<string | null>(null)
+
+  const filteredPresets = useMemo(() => PRESETS.filter(p => {
+    if (yearFilter && p.year !== yearFilter) return false
+    if (catFilter  && p.category !== catFilter) return false
+    if (search && !p.label.toLowerCase().includes(search.toLowerCase())) return false
+    return true
+  }), [search, yearFilter, catFilter])
+
+  const showToast = (msg: string) => {
+    setToast(msg)
+    setTimeout(() => setToast(null), 3000)
+  }
+
+  const handleSelectPreset = (p: Preset) => {
+    setSelected(p)
+    setEditDate(p.date)
+    setEditHorizon(p.horizon_days)
+    setEditAssets(p.assets.join(', '))
+    setEditHint(p.hint)
+    setActiveRun(null)
+    setSavedIdx(new Set())
+  }
+
+  const handleRun = async () => {
+    if (!selected && !editDate) return
+    const assets = editAssets.split(',').map(s => s.trim()).filter(Boolean)
+    try {
+      const result = await runBacktest({
+        preset_id:     selected?.id,
+        theme:         selected?.label ?? 'Custom',
+        analysis_date: editDate,
+        horizon_days:  editHorizon,
+        assets,
+        theme_hint:    editHint,
+      })
+      setActiveRun(result)
+      setSavedIdx(new Set())
+    } catch (e: any) {
+      showToast(`Error: ${e?.response?.data?.detail ?? e?.message ?? 'unknown'}`)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const handleEvaluate = async () => {
+    if (!activeRun?.run_id) return
+    try {
+      const result = await evaluateRun(activeRun.run_id)
+      setActiveRun((prev: any) => ({ ...prev, outcome: result.outcomes }))
+    } catch (e: any) {
+      showToast(`Error: ${e?.response?.data?.detail ?? e?.message ?? 'unknown'}`)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const handleSave = async (idx: number) => {
+    if (!activeRun?.run_id) return
+    const pat = activeRun.ai_result?.patterns?.[idx]
+    if (!pat) return
+    try {
+      await savePattern({
+        run_id: activeRun.run_id,
+        pattern_index: idx,
+        name: pat.name,
+        category: pat.category,
+        signal_direction: pat.signal_direction,
+      })
+      setSavedIdx(prev => new Set([...prev, idx]))
+      showToast(`"${pat.name}" saved to Pattern Library`)
+    } catch (e: any) {
+      showToast(`Save failed: ${e?.response?.data?.detail ?? e?.message}`)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const aiPatterns: any[] = activeRun?.ai_result?.patterns ?? []
+  const outcomes: any[]   = activeRun?.outcome ?? []
+  const hasOutcomes       = outcomes.length > 0
+
+  const outcomeForPattern = (name: string) =>
+    outcomes.find((o: any) => o.pattern_name === name)
+
+  const hitRate = hasOutcomes
+    ? outcomes.filter((o: any) => o.hit === true).length / outcomes.filter((o: any) => 'hit' in o).length
+    : null
+
+  return (
+    <div className="flex h-screen bg-dark-900 text-slate-200 overflow-hidden">
+      {/* ── Left sidebar: preset selector ──────────────────────────────────── */}
+      <div className="w-72 flex-shrink-0 border-r border-slate-700/40 flex flex-col overflow-hidden">
+        <div className="p-3 border-b border-slate-700/40">
+          <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mb-2">
+            <FlaskConical className="w-4 h-4 text-violet-400" />
+            <span className="font-semibold text-sm text-slate-100">Pattern Lab</span>
+            <span className="ml-auto text-[10px] bg-slate-700 rounded px-1.5 py-0.5 text-slate-400">{PRESETS.length} events</span>
+          </div>
+          {/* Search */}
+          <div className="relative">
+            <Search className="w-3.5 h-3.5 absolute left-2 top-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 text-slate-500" />
+            <input
+              value={search} onChange={e => setSearch(e.target.value)}
+              placeholder="Search events..."
+              className="w-full pl-7 pr-2 py-1.5 text-xs bg-dark-700 border border-slate-700/40 rounded text-slate-200 placeholder-slate-500 focus:outline-none focus:border-violet-600"
+            />
+          </div>
+          {/* Year pills */}
+          <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-1 mt-2">
+            {YEARS.map(y => (
+              <button key={y} onClick={() => setYearFilter(yearFilter === y ? null : y)}
+                className={clsx('text-[10px] px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded border transition-colors', {
+                  'bg-violet-700 border-violet-600 text-white': yearFilter === y,
+                  'border-slate-700 text-slate-500 hover:text-slate-300': yearFilter !== y,
+                })}>{y}</button>
+            ))}
+          </div>
+          {/* Category pills */}
+          <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-1 mt-1">
+            {Object.entries(CATEGORIES).map(([key, { label }]) => (
+              <button key={key} onClick={() => setCatFilter(catFilter === key ? null : key)}
+                className={clsx('text-[10px] px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded transition-colors', {
+                  'bg-slate-600 text-white': catFilter === key,
+                  'text-slate-500 hover:text-slate-300': catFilter !== key,
+                })}>{label}</button>
+            ))}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* Preset list */}
+        <div className="flex-1 overflow-y-auto py-1">
+          {filteredPresets.map(p => (
+            <button key={p.id} onClick={() => handleSelectPreset(p)}
+              className={clsx('w-full text-left px-3 py-2 border-b border-slate-700/20 hover:bg-dark-700/60 transition-colors', {
+                'bg-violet-900/30 border-l-2 border-l-violet-500': selected?.id === p.id,
+              })}>
+              <div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 mb-0.5">
+                <span className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 font-mono">{p.year}</span>
+                <CategoryBadge cat={p.category} />
+                <span className="text-[10px] text-slate-600 ml-auto">{p.horizon_days}d</span>
+              </div>
+              <div className="text-xs text-slate-200 leading-tight">{p.label}</div>
+              <div className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mt-0.5">{p.date}</div>
+            </button>
+          ))}
+          {filteredPresets.length === 0 && (
+            <div className="p-4 text-center text-xs text-slate-600">No events match filters</div>
+          )}
+        </div>
+
+        {/* Run history count */}
+        <div className="p-2 border-t border-slate-700/40 text-[10px] text-slate-600">
+          {runs.length} past run{runs.length !== 1 ? 's' : ''} in history
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* ── Main content ────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
+      <div className="flex-1 overflow-y-auto">
+        {!selected ? (
+          <div className="flex items-center justify-center h-full text-center">
+            <div>
+              <FlaskConical className="w-12 h-12 text-slate-700 mx-auto mb-3" />
+              <p className="text-slate-500 text-sm">Select a historical event on the left</p>
+              <p className="text-slate-600 text-xs mt-1">The AI will analyse what it would have done at that date using real market data</p>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        ) : (
+          <div className="p-5 space-y-5">
+            {/* ── Header ── */}
+            <div className="flex items-start gap-3">
+              <div className="flex-1">
+                <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mb-1">
+                  <CalendarDays className="w-4 h-4 text-violet-400" />
+                  <h1 className="text-lg font-bold text-slate-100">{selected.label}</h1>
+                  <CategoryBadge cat={selected.category} />
+                </div>
+                <p className="text-xs text-slate-400 leading-relaxed max-w-2xl">{selected.hint}</p>
+              </div>
+            </div>
+
+            {/* ── Setup card ── */}
+            <div className="bg-dark-800 border border-slate-700/40 rounded-lg p-4">
+              <div className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wide mb-3">Experiment Setup</div>
+              <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-3">
+                <div>
+                  <label className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mb-1 block">Analysis Date</label>
+                  <input type="date" value={editDate} onChange={e => setEditDate(e.target.value)}
+                    className="w-full px-2 py-1.5 text-xs bg-dark-700 border border-slate-600/50 rounded text-slate-200 focus:outline-none focus:border-violet-500" />
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <label className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mb-1 block">Horizon (days)</label>
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                    <input type="range" min={14} max={365} value={editHorizon}
+                      onChange={e => setEditHorizon(Number(e.target.value))}
+                      className="flex-1 accent-violet-600" />
+                    <span className="text-xs font-mono text-violet-300 w-8 text-right">{editHorizon}d</span>
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <label className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mb-1 block">Assets (comma-separated)</label>
+                  <input value={editAssets} onChange={e => setEditAssets(e.target.value)}
+                    className="w-full px-2 py-1.5 text-xs bg-dark-700 border border-slate-600/50 rounded text-slate-200 focus:outline-none focus:border-violet-500 font-mono" />
+                </div>
+              </div>
+              <div className="mt-3">
+                <label className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mb-1 block">Context hint for AI</label>
+                <textarea value={editHint} onChange={e => setEditHint(e.target.value)} rows={2}
+                  className="w-full px-2 py-1.5 text-xs bg-dark-700 border border-slate-600/50 rounded text-slate-300 focus:outline-none focus:border-violet-500 resize-none" />
+              </div>
+              <div className="mt-3 flex items-center gap-3">
+                <button onClick={handleRun} disabled={running || !editDate}
+                  className="flex items-center gap-2 bg-violet-700 hover:bg-violet-600 disabled:opacity-50 text-white px-4 py-2 rounded text-xs font-semibold transition-colors">
+                  {running
+                    ? <><RefreshCw className="w-3.5 h-3.5 animate-spin" /> Building context + running AI…</>
+                    : <><Play className="w-3.5 h-3.5" /> Run Backtest</>}
+                </button>
+                {running && <span className="text-xs text-slate-500">Fetching {editDate} market data + GPT-4o analysis…</span>}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+
+            {/* ── Context snapshot ── */}
+            {activeRun?.context?.assets && (
+              <div className="bg-dark-800 border border-slate-700/40 rounded-lg p-4">
+                <div className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wide mb-3">
+                  Market Data — {activeRun.context.analysis_date}
+                </div>
+                <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+                  <table className="w-full text-xs">
+                    <thead>
+                      <tr className="text-[10px] text-slate-600 uppercase tracking-wide border-b border-slate-700/40">
+                        <th className="text-left py-1 pr-3">Ticker</th>
+                        <th className="text-right pr-3">Price</th>
+                        <th className="text-right pr-3">1W</th>
+                        <th className="text-right pr-3">1M</th>
+                        <th className="text-right pr-3">3M</th>
+                        <th className="text-right pr-3">RSI</th>
+                        <th className="text-right">vs MA200</th>
+                      </tr>
+                    </thead>
+                    <tbody>
+                      {Object.entries(activeRun.context.assets).map(([ticker, d]: [string, any]) => (
+                        <tr key={ticker} className="border-b border-slate-700/20">
+                          <td className="py-1 pr-3 font-mono text-slate-200">{ticker}</td>
+                          <td className="text-right pr-3 font-mono">{d.price ?? '—'}</td>
+                          <td className="text-right pr-3">
+                            {d.ret_1w != null ? (
+                              <span className={d.ret_1w >= 0 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400'}>
+                                {d.ret_1w > 0 ? '+' : ''}{d.ret_1w.toFixed(1)}%
+                              </span>
+                            ) : '—'}
+                          </td>
+                          <td className="text-right pr-3">
+                            {d.ret_1m != null ? (
+                              <span className={d.ret_1m >= 0 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400'}>
+                                {d.ret_1m > 0 ? '+' : ''}{d.ret_1m.toFixed(1)}%
+                              </span>
+                            ) : '—'}
+                          </td>
+                          <td className="text-right pr-3">
+                            {d.ret_3m != null ? (
+                              <span className={d.ret_3m >= 0 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400'}>
+                                {d.ret_3m > 0 ? '+' : ''}{d.ret_3m.toFixed(1)}%
+                              </span>
+                            ) : '—'}
+                          </td>
+                          <td className="text-right pr-3">
+                            {d.rsi_14 != null ? (
+                              <span className={clsx({
+                                'text-red-400': d.rsi_14 > 70,
+                                'text-emerald-400': d.rsi_14 < 30,
+                                'text-slate-300': d.rsi_14 >= 30 && d.rsi_14 <= 70,
+                              })}>{d.rsi_14.toFixed(0)}</span>
+                            ) : '—'}
+                          </td>
+                          <td className="text-right">
+                            {d.pct_from_ma200 != null ? (
+                              <span className={d.pct_from_ma200 >= 0 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400'}>
+                                {d.pct_from_ma200 > 0 ? '+' : ''}{d.pct_from_ma200.toFixed(1)}%
+                              </span>
+                            ) : '—'}
+                          </td>
+                        </tr>
+                      ))}
+                    </tbody>
+                  </table>
+                </div>
+              </div>
+            )}
+
+            {/* ── AI pattern results ── */}
+            {aiPatterns.length > 0 && (
+              <div className="bg-dark-800 border border-slate-700/40 rounded-lg p-4">
+                <div className="flex items-center justify-between mb-3">
+                  <div className="text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wide">
+                    AI Pattern Analysis — {aiPatterns.length} pattern{aiPatterns.length !== 1 ? 's' : ''}
+                  </div>
+                  {!hasOutcomes && (
+                    <button onClick={handleEvaluate} disabled={evaluating}
+                      className="flex items-center gap-1.5 bg-teal-700 hover:bg-teal-600 disabled:opacity-50 text-white px-3 py-1.5 rounded text-xs font-semibold transition-colors">
+                      {evaluating
+                        ? <><RefreshCw className="w-3 h-3 animate-spin" /> Fetching outcomes…</>
+                        : <><BarChart2 className="w-3 h-3" /> Evaluate at T+{editHorizon}d</>}
+                    </button>
+                  )}
+                  {hasOutcomes && hitRate !== null && (
+                    <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                      <span className="text-xs text-slate-500">Hit rate:</span>
+                      <span className={clsx('text-sm font-bold', hitRate >= 0.6 ? 'text-emerald-400' : hitRate >= 0.4 ? 'text-yellow-400' : 'text-red-400')}>
+                        {Math.round(hitRate * 100)}%
+                      </span>
+                      <span className="text-xs text-slate-600">({outcomes.filter((o: any) => o.hit).length}/{outcomes.filter((o: any) => 'hit' in o).length})</span>
+                    </div>
+                  )}
+                </div>
+
+                <div className="space-y-3">
+                  {aiPatterns.map((pat: any, idx: number) => {
+                    const out = outcomeForPattern(pat.name)
+                    const isSaved = savedIdx.has(idx)
+                    const dirIcon = pat.signal_direction === 'bullish' ? TrendingUp
+                                  : pat.signal_direction === 'bearish' ? TrendingDown
+                                  : Zap
+                    const DirIcon = dirIcon
+                    const dirColor = pat.signal_direction === 'bullish' ? 'text-emerald-400'
+                                   : pat.signal_direction === 'bearish' ? 'text-red-400' : 'text-violet-400'
+
+                    return (
+                      <div key={idx} className={clsx(
+                        'border rounded-lg p-3 transition-colors',
+                        out?.hit === true  ? 'border-emerald-700/60 bg-emerald-900/10' :
+                        out?.hit === false ? 'border-red-700/40 bg-red-900/10' :
+                        'border-slate-700/40 bg-dark-700/30'
+                      )}>
+                        <div className="flex items-start gap-3">
+                          <div className="flex-1">
+                            <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mb-1">
+                              <DirIcon className={`w-3.5 h-3.5 ${dirColor}`} />
+                              <span className="text-sm font-semibold text-slate-100">{pat.name}</span>
+                              <span className="text-[10px] bg-slate-700 rounded px-1.5 text-slate-400 font-mono">{pat.underlying}</span>
+                              {pat.category && <CategoryBadge cat={pat.category} />}
+                            </div>
+                            <p className="text-xs text-slate-400 mb-2">{pat.description}</p>
+                            <div className="flex items-center gap-4 text-[10px] text-slate-500">
+                              <span>Strategy: <span className="text-slate-300">{pat.strategy}</span></span>
+                              <span>Expected: <span className={clsx('font-semibold', dirColor)}>
+                                {pat.expected_direction === 'up' ? '+' : pat.expected_direction === 'down' ? '-' : '±'}{pat.expected_move_pct}%
+                              </span></span>
+                              <span>Horizon: <span className="text-slate-300">{pat.horizon_days}d</span></span>
+                              <span>Confidence: <span className={clsx('font-semibold', pat.confidence >= 70 ? 'text-emerald-400' : pat.confidence >= 50 ? 'text-yellow-400' : 'text-slate-400')}>{pat.confidence}</span></span>
+                            </div>
+                            {pat.rationale && (
+                              <p className="text-[10px] text-slate-500 mt-1.5 italic">{pat.rationale}</p>
+                            )}
+                            {/* Outcome row */}
+                            {out && (
+                              <div className={clsx(
+                                'mt-2 pt-2 border-t flex items-center gap-4 text-[10px]',
+                                out.hit ? 'border-emerald-700/30 text-emerald-300' : 'border-red-700/30 text-red-300'
+                              )}>
+                                {out.hit
+                                  ? <CheckCircle2 className="w-3.5 h-3.5 text-emerald-400" />
+                                  : <XCircle className="w-3.5 h-3.5 text-red-400" />}
+                                <span className="font-semibold">{out.hit ? 'HIT' : 'MISS'}</span>
+                                <span className="text-slate-400">Actual move:</span>
+                                <MoveBadge move={out.actual_move_pct} dir={out.expected_direction} />
+                                <span className="text-slate-500">{out.entry_date} → {out.exit_date}</span>
+                                {out.entry_price && (
+                                  <span className="text-slate-500">
+                                    {out.entry_price} → {out.exit_price}
+                                  </span>
+                                )}
+                              </div>
+                            )}
+                          </div>
+
+                          {/* Save button */}
+                          <div className="flex-shrink-0">
+                            {isSaved ? (
+                              <span className="flex items-center gap-1 text-emerald-400 text-xs">
+                                <CheckCircle2 className="w-3.5 h-3.5" /> Saved
+                              </span>
+                            ) : (
+                              <button onClick={() => handleSave(idx)}
+                                className="flex items-center gap-1.5 border border-slate-600 hover:border-violet-500 hover:text-violet-300 text-slate-400 px-2.5 py-1.5 rounded text-xs transition-colors">
+                                <Save className="w-3 h-3" /> Save pattern
+                              </button>
+                            )}
+                          </div>
+                        </div>
+                      </div>
+                    )
+                  })}
+                </div>
+              </div>
+            )}
+          </div>
+        )}
+      </div>
+
+      {/* ── History panel ───────────────────────────────────────────────────── */}
+      {runs.length > 0 && (
+        <div className="w-64 flex-shrink-0 border-l border-slate-700/40 overflow-y-auto">
+          <div className="p-3 border-b border-slate-700/40 text-xs font-semibold text-slate-400 uppercase tracking-wide">
+            Run History
+          </div>
+          {runs.map((run: any) => (
+            <div key={run.id}
+              className="px-3 py-2 border-b border-slate-700/20 hover:bg-dark-700/40 cursor-pointer group"
+              onClick={() => {
+                // Rehydrate run into active state
+                const preset = PRESETS.find(p => p.id === run.preset_id)
+                if (preset) setSelected(preset)
+                setEditDate(run.analysis_date)
+                setEditHorizon(run.horizon_days)
+                setEditAssets((run.assets ?? []).join(', '))
+                setEditHint(run.theme_hint ?? '')
+                setActiveRun({
+                  run_id: run.id,
+                  context: run.context_snapshot,
+                  ai_result: run.ai_result,
+                  outcome: run.outcome,
+                })
+                setSavedIdx(new Set())
+              }}>
+              <div className="flex items-center gap-1.5 mb-0.5">
+                <span className={clsx('w-1.5 h-1.5 rounded-full flex-shrink-0', {
+                  'bg-emerald-500': run.status === 'evaluated',
+                  'bg-teal-500':    run.status === 'done',
+                  'bg-yellow-500':  run.status === 'running',
+                  'bg-red-500':     run.status === 'error',
+                  'bg-slate-500':   run.status === 'pending',
+                })} />
+                <span className="text-[10px] text-slate-400 font-mono">{run.analysis_date}</span>
+                <button
+                  onClick={e => { e.stopPropagation(); deleteRun(run.id) }}
+                  className="ml-auto opacity-0 group-hover:opacity-100 text-slate-600 hover:text-red-400 transition-all">
+                  <Trash2 className="w-3 h-3" />
+                </button>
+              </div>
+              <div className="text-xs text-slate-300 leading-tight truncate">{run.theme}</div>
+              <div className="flex items-center gap-2 mt-0.5">
+                <span className="text-[10px] text-slate-600">{run.horizon_days}d</span>
+                {run.status === 'evaluated' && run.outcome && (() => {
+                  const outs: any[] = Array.isArray(run.outcome) ? run.outcome : []
+                  const hits = outs.filter(o => o.hit === true).length
+                  const total = outs.filter(o => 'hit' in o).length
+                  return total > 0 ? (
+                    <span className={clsx('text-[10px] font-semibold', hits / total >= 0.6 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400')}>
+                      {Math.round(hits / total * 100)}% hit
+                    </span>
+                  ) : null
+                })()}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+          ))}
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* ── Toast ── */}
+      {toast && (
+        <div className="fixed bottom-5 left-1/2 -translate-x-1/2 bg-slate-800 border border-slate-600 rounded-lg px-4 py-2 text-sm text-slate-200 shadow-xl z-50">
+          {toast}
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}