feat: Phase 2 — economic event surprise tracker (FRED actuals + z-score)

- economic_events table in DB (series_id, actual, forecast_baseline, surprise_pct, surprise_zscore, direction)
- DB helpers: save_economic_event(), get_recent_economic_surprises(), get_economic_events_for_calendar()
- fred_fetcher.py: _compute_zscore_surprise() computes 12-period MA as implied consensus + z-score deviation; save_fred_releases_to_db() persists releases per cycle; build_economic_surprise_block() formats significant surprises for AI prompt
- auto_cycle.py: saves FRED releases to economic_events each cycle, appends surprise block to fred_block for injection into both suggestion and scoring prompts
- data_fetcher.py: get_economic_calendar() now merges static upcoming events with past FRED actuals from DB (Prev/Fcst/Actual/z-score fields populated)
- CalendarPage.tsx: past events show colored z-score badge (⚡ for |z|≥1.5, bullish/bearish colors)
- EconomicEvent type: added surprise_zscore, surprise_direction, source fields

Activates automatically once fred_api_key is set in Configuration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/services/auto_cycle.py

@@ -431,15 +431,41 @@ def run_cycle_once(trigger: str = "auto") -> Dict[str, Any]:
         except Exception as _abs_e:
             logger.warning(f"[Cycle] Price absorption failed (non-blocking): {_abs_e}")
 
-        # ── Phase 2: FRED recent macro releases ──────────────────────────────
+        # ── Phase 2: FRED recent macro releases + economic surprise tracking ────
         _fred_releases = []
         _fred_block = ""
+        _surprise_block = ""
         try:
-            from services.fred_fetcher import get_fred_recent_releases, build_fred_context_block
+            from services.fred_fetcher import (
+                get_fred_recent_releases, build_fred_context_block,
+                save_fred_releases_to_db, build_economic_surprise_block,
+            )
+            _fred_key = get_config("fred_api_key") or ""
             _fred_releases = get_fred_recent_releases()
-            _fred_block = build_fred_context_block(_fred_releases)
             if _fred_releases:
                 logger.info(f"[Cycle {run_id[:16]}] FRED: {len(_fred_releases)} releases fetched")
+                # Persist to economic_events with z-score surprise scoring
+                try:
+                    _saved = save_fred_releases_to_db(_fred_releases, api_key=_fred_key)
+                    if _saved:
+                        logger.info(f"[Cycle {run_id[:16]}] FRED: {_saved} releases saved to economic_events")
+                except Exception as _dbe:
+                    logger.warning(f"[Cycle] FRED DB save failed (non-blocking): {_dbe}")
+                # Add surprise scores to release dicts for richer prompt block
+                if _fred_key:
+                    try:
+                        from services.database import get_recent_economic_surprises
+                        _db_surprises = {ev["series_id"]: ev for ev in get_recent_economic_surprises(days=60)}
+                        for rel in _fred_releases:
+                            sid = rel.get("series_id", "")
+                            if sid in _db_surprises:
+                                rel["surprise_zscore"] = _db_surprises[sid].get("surprise_zscore")
+                    except Exception:
+                        pass
+            _fred_block = build_fred_context_block(_fred_releases)
+            _surprise_block = build_economic_surprise_block(days=14)
+            if _surprise_block:
+                _fred_block = _fred_block + "\n\n" + _surprise_block if _fred_block else _surprise_block
         except Exception as _fe:
             logger.warning(f"[Cycle] FRED fetch failed (non-blocking): {_fe}")