feat: Phase 2 — economic event surprise tracker (FRED actuals + z-score)

- economic_events table in DB (series_id, actual, forecast_baseline, surprise_pct, surprise_zscore, direction)
- DB helpers: save_economic_event(), get_recent_economic_surprises(), get_economic_events_for_calendar()
- fred_fetcher.py: _compute_zscore_surprise() computes 12-period MA as implied consensus + z-score deviation; save_fred_releases_to_db() persists releases per cycle; build_economic_surprise_block() formats significant surprises for AI prompt
- auto_cycle.py: saves FRED releases to economic_events each cycle, appends surprise block to fred_block for injection into both suggestion and scoring prompts
- data_fetcher.py: get_economic_calendar() now merges static upcoming events with past FRED actuals from DB (Prev/Fcst/Actual/z-score fields populated)
- CalendarPage.tsx: past events show colored z-score badge (⚡ for |z|≥1.5, bullish/bearish colors)
- EconomicEvent type: added surprise_zscore, surprise_direction, source fields

Activates automatically once fred_api_key is set in Configuration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/pages/CalendarPage.tsx

@@ -49,11 +49,27 @@ function EventCard({ ev }: { ev: EconomicEvent }) {
             {format(evDate, "EEEE, MMM d yyyy")} · {ev.country}
           </div>
         </div>
-        <div className="text-right shrink-0">
+        <div className="text-right shrink-0 space-y-0.5">
           <div className={clsx('text-xs font-semibold', cfg.color.split(' ')[0])}>{cfg.label}</div>
-          {ev.previous && <div className="text-xs text-slate-600 mt-0.5">Prev: {ev.previous}</div>}
+          {ev.previous && <div className="text-xs text-slate-600">Prev: {ev.previous}</div>}
           {ev.forecast && <div className="text-xs text-slate-500">Fcst: {ev.forecast}</div>}
-          {ev.actual && <div className="text-xs text-emerald-400 font-bold">Actual: {ev.actual}</div>}
+          {ev.actual && (
+            <div className="text-xs text-emerald-400 font-bold">Actual: {ev.actual}</div>
+          )}
+          {ev.surprise_zscore !== undefined && Math.abs(ev.surprise_zscore) >= 0.8 && (
+            <div className={clsx(
+              'text-xs font-bold px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded border',
+              ev.surprise_direction === 'bullish'
+                ? 'text-emerald-400 border-emerald-700/40 bg-emerald-900/20'
+                : ev.surprise_direction === 'bearish'
+                ? 'text-red-400 border-red-700/40 bg-red-900/20'
+                : 'text-slate-400 border-slate-700/40'
+            )}>
+              z={ev.surprise_zscore > 0 ? '+' : ''}{ev.surprise_zscore?.toFixed(1)} {
+                Math.abs(ev.surprise_zscore) >= 1.5 ? '⚡' : ''
+              }
+            </div>
+          )}
         </div>
       </div>
       {ev.asset_impact && ev.asset_impact.length > 0 && (

frontend/src/types/index.ts

@@ -124,6 +124,9 @@ export interface EconomicEvent {
   previous?: string
   forecast?: string
   actual?: string
+  surprise_zscore?: number
+  surprise_direction?: 'bullish' | 'bearish' | 'neutral'
+  source?: string
 }
 
 export interface HistoricalCandle {