feat: instrument analysis

frontend/src/App.tsx

@@ -100,7 +100,7 @@ function KeepAlivePage({ path, component: Component }: { path: string; component
 
 // Registers the instrument tab on navigation (renders nothing itself)
 function InstrumentRoute() {
-  const { id = localStorage.getItem('last_instrument') || 'EURUSD' } = useParams<{ id: string }>()
+  const { id = localStorage.getItem('last_instrument') || 'EURUSD=X' } = useParams<{ id: string }>()
   const { openInstrument } = useTabs()
   useEffect(() => { openInstrument(id.toUpperCase()) }, [id, openInstrument])
   return null
@@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ function NormalRoutes() {
   return (
     <div className={isInstrument ? 'hidden' : 'flex-1 overflow-auto'}>
       <Routes>
-        <Route path="/instruments" element={<Navigate to={`/instruments/${localStorage.getItem('last_instrument') || 'EURUSD'}`} replace />} />
+        <Route path="/instruments" element={<Navigate to={`/instruments/${localStorage.getItem('last_instrument') || 'EURUSD=X'}`} replace />} />
         <Route path="/instruments/:id" element={<InstrumentRoute />} />
         {/* Legacy redirects */}
         <Route path="/impact"    element={<Navigate to="/market-events" replace />} />

frontend/src/context/TabsContext.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,7 @@
-import { createContext, useContext, useCallback, useState, ReactNode } from 'react'
+import { createContext, useContext, useCallback, useState, useEffect, ReactNode } from 'react'
+
+// Instruments that exist in instruments.json — used to validate localStorage
+const VALID_INSTRUMENT_SUFFIX = /^[A-Z0-9]+=?[A-Z0-9-]*$/
 
 interface TabsCtx {
   kept:            ReadonlySet<string>

frontend/src/pages/InstrumentDashboard.tsx

@@ -968,10 +968,9 @@ function CausalFrise({
               )}
             </div>
 
-            {/* Per-graph comprehension score */}
+            {/* Précision — source directe depuis /causal-lab/analyses (même valeur que MarketEvents) */}
             {(() => {
-              const inst = causalInsts.find(ci => tmpl.instruments.includes(ci)) ?? causalInsts[0]
-              const s = inst ? comprehensionScore(ev, tmpl, inst) : null
+              const s = ev.id != null ? (causalScores[ev.id] ?? null) : null
               if (s == null) return null
               const barCls = s >= 70 ? 'bg-emerald-500' : s >= 40 ? 'bg-amber-500' : 'bg-red-500'
               const txtCls = s >= 70 ? 'text-emerald-400' : s >= 40 ? 'text-amber-400' : 'text-red-400'
@@ -1072,7 +1071,7 @@ function ExplanationScore({
       rawPred: (ev.prediction_json ?? 'null').slice(0, 30),
     })
 
-    const s = comprehensionScore(ev, tmpl, inst)
+    const s = ev.id != null ? (causalScores[ev.id] ?? null) : null
     if (debugRows.length > 0) debugRows[debugRows.length - 1].score = s
     if (s != null) scored.push(s)
   }
@@ -1206,7 +1205,7 @@ const PERIODS = [
 ]
 
 export default function InstrumentDashboard({ instrumentIdProp, isVisible }: { instrumentIdProp?: string; isVisible?: boolean } = {}) {
-  const { id: paramId = localStorage.getItem('last_instrument') || 'EURUSD' } = useParams<{ id: string }>()
+  const { id: paramId = localStorage.getItem('last_instrument') || 'EURUSD=X' } = useParams<{ id: string }>()
   const navigate = useNavigate()
   const [period, setPeriod]           = useState('1y')
   const [chartStyle, setChartStyle]   = useState<'candles' | 'line'>('candles')
@@ -1220,6 +1219,7 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard({ instrumentIdProp, isVisible }: { i
   const [selectedDate, setSelectedDate] = useState<string | null>(null)
   const [tabUnder, setTabUnder]         = useState<'counters' | 'analyse'>('counters')
   const [templates, setTemplates]       = useState<CausalTemplate[]>([])
+  const [causalScores, setCausalScores] = useState<Record<number, number | null>>({}) // eventId → activation_score*100
   const [macroAtDate, setMacroAtDate]   = useState<MacroGaugeSnap | null>(null)
   const [theoryCurve, setTheoryCurve]   = useState<TheoPoint[] | null>(null)
   const [loadingTheory, setLoadingTheory] = useState(false)
@@ -1264,6 +1264,20 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard({ instrumentIdProp, isVisible }: { i
       .catch(() => {})
   }, [instrumentId, period])
 
+  // Fetch causal scores directly from the analyses API (not via snapshot) so the popup
+  // always shows the DB-stored activation_score, independent of snapshot staleness
+  const refreshCausalScores = useCallback((events: SnapshotEvent[]) => {
+    const ids = events.map(e => e.id).filter(Boolean) as number[]
+    if (!ids.length) return
+    Promise.all(ids.map(id =>
+      api.get(`/causal-lab/analyses?market_event_id=${id}&limit=1`)
+        .then(r => ({ id, score: r.data[0]?.activation_score ?? null }))
+        .catch(() => ({ id, score: null }))
+    )).then(results => {
+      setCausalScores(Object.fromEntries(results.map(r => [r.id, r.score != null ? Math.round(r.score * 100) : null])))
+    })
+  }, [])
+
   useEffect(() => {
     setSnapshot(null)
     setNarrative('')
@@ -1276,6 +1290,11 @@ export default function InstrumentDashboard({ instrumentIdProp, isVisible }: { i
     fetchSnapshot()
   }, [instrumentId, period])
 
+  // Refresh causal scores whenever the snapshot events change
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (snapshot?.events?.length) refreshCausalScores(snapshot.events)
+  }, [snapshot?.events, refreshCausalScores])
+
   const loadNarrative = useCallback(() => {
     setLoadingNarr(true)
     api.post(`/instruments/${instrumentId}/narrative`)