- New institutional_reports table (DB) with importance, signals per asset class, key points, absorption tracking
- cot_fetcher.py: CFTC Socrata API (6dca-aqww), 7 instruments (Gold/Silver/Copper/WTI/NatGas/SP500/EURUSD), net positioning + 52-week z-score
- eia_fetcher.py: EIA API v2, 4 series (crude/Cushing/gasoline/distillates), WoW surprise detection
- institutional.py router: GET /reports, GET /reports/{id}, POST /refresh, GET /stats
- institutional_scheduler.py: weekly auto-fetch (COT Saturdays, EIA Wednesday afternoons)
- ai_analyzer.py: build_institutional_block() + institutional_block param injected into AI scoring prompt
- auto_cycle.py: inject institutional block into suggestion + scoring, absorption tracking via keyword overlap after each cycle commentary
- InstitutionalReports.tsx: full page with filter bar (type/category/importance/period), cards with key point bullets, EXTREME alerts highlighted, signal badges, absorption badge, trading implications, expandable detail
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Complete French→English translation across all frontend pages and backend
services — every label, button, header, empty state, toast, and nav item
is now in English. Build verified clean (tsc + vite). No i18n library
added; direct string replacement throughout.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Phase 1 — Catégorisation:
- database.py: ADD COLUMN category + signal_direction on custom_patterns (migration);
save_custom_pattern persists category/signal_direction; new helpers:
get_unclassified_patterns(), update_pattern_classification(),
get_patterns_with_last_score()
- ai_analyzer.py: PATTERN_CATEGORIES dict (8 categories: géopolitique, macro_monétaire,
technique, commodités_supply, risk_off, flux_saisonnier, géo_économique, crédit_stress);
classify_patterns_batch() → GPT-4o-mini batch classification
- suggest schema: added category + signal_direction fields so new patterns are
classified from birth
- auto_cycle.py: Step 3.1 classifies all unclassified patterns after each suggestion
Phase 2 — Convergence layer (post-scoring, no extra AI call):
- ai_analyzer.py: _compute_convergence() groups scored patterns by (underlying, signal_direction);
conviction_bonus = min(20, +5 per additional agreeing pattern); adds conviction_score,
conviction_bonus, convergence_count, convergence_underlying, convergence_partners to each result;
called at end of score_patterns_with_context(), re-sorts by conviction_score
- auto_cycle.py: logs convergence summary after scoring; propagates category/signal_direction
to scored results for display
Phase optionnelle — Convergence in suggestion prompt:
- ai_analyzer.py: suggest_patterns_from_market_context() accepts convergence_block param;
injected into prompt so AI knows which underlyings have multi-pattern agreement
- auto_cycle.py: before suggestion, loads last-cycle scores via get_patterns_with_last_score(),
calls _compute_convergence() to build convergence block, passes to suggester
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- auto_cycle.py: detect weekend/market session, build cycle_meta with day_of_week/is_weekend/market_note;
IVGate skips iv_rank>=99 on weekends to avoid artificial weekend option premium cascade;
inject portfolio context (open trades + price moves + concentration) before AI scoring;
pass portfolio_context_block + run_id to both AI scorer and suggester
- ai_analyzer.py: _build_temporal_news_block injects market session banner (WEEKEND warning,
pre/after-market note, or open session label) so AI knows markets are closed and defers execution to Monday
- iv_engine.py: add WHEAT/EUR/USD ticker aliases; skip saving IV snapshots on weekends to protect history;
resolve aliases before slash-format conversion in _resolve_ticker
- technical_indicators.py: fix pandas MultiIndex from yfinance>=0.2 (droplevel+squeeze);
use period proportional to lookback instead of fixed period=1d
- database.py: asset_class ticker-based fallback (_asset_class_from_ticker); one-time backfill migration
for all NULL asset_class rows; ai_call_logs table + save/get helpers; normalize_ticker public function
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Portfolio context (portfolio_context.py):
- get_open_trades_with_moves(): fetches open trades + 1d/5d yfinance price moves
- get_portfolio_concentration(): counts by asset_class
- build_portfolio_context_block(): formatted prompt block with strict AI instructions
(no double positions, flag contradictions, avoid overweight classes)
AI call logging:
- ai_call_logs table in DB (run_id, call_type, system/user prompt, response, tokens, ms)
- _chat() now accepts log_meta dict → saves call to DB non-blocking after each call
- suggest and score_batch calls pass run_id + call_type for full traceability
auto_cycle.py:
- Builds portfolio context before snapshot and both AI calls
- Context snapshot now includes portfolio_open_positions key
SystemLogs.tsx:
- "Contexte IA" tab gains sub-tabs: Contexte / Appels IA
- AiCallRow: expandable with 3 panes (user prompt / system prompt / response)
shows model, tokens breakdown, duration, call type badge
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Direction (Ouvert) : t.direction n'existe pas dans trade_entry_prices → utilisait
undefined, excluait tout. Remplacé par _isBearishStr(t.strategy) comme Fermés.
Asset class (Ouvert, Fermés, Non loggés) : l'IA retournait parfois "commodities",
"currencies", "fx", "equity" au lieu des clés canoniques. Double correction :
- Frontend : _normalizeAssetClass() mappe les variantes → energy|metals|agriculture|
indices|equities|forex dans les 3 sections filtrées
- Backend database.py : _normalize_asset_class() appliqué à l'INSERT dans
trade_entry_prices et skipped_trades (nouveaux trades normalisés au stockage)
- Prompt ai_analyzer.py : suggested_trades[].asset_class contraint à l'enum explicite
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Phase 4 — Price Discovery Status (la pièce maîtresse) :
- price_discovery.py (nouveau) : capture_price_snapshots() sauve les prix des tickers
liés à chaque news scorée (energy→BZ=F/NG=F, metals→GC=F/HG=F, indices→^GSPC/IWM)
- compute_absorptions() mesure combien du mouvement attendu s'est déjà produit
(status: not_yet_priced <30% / partially_priced 30-80% / fully_priced >80%)
- build_price_discovery_block() → bloc prompt avec opportunités classées
- database.py : table news_price_snapshots + save/get/purge fonctions
- auto_cycle.py : capture après ai_score_news_batch, compute avant suggestions,
block injecté dans suggestion + scoring prompts + context snapshot
- ai_analyzer.py : param price_discovery_block dans suggest + score
Phase 5 — Replay historique :
- cycle.py : POST /api/cycle/contexts/{run_id}/replay — recharge le snapshot historique
et relance suggest_patterns_from_market_context avec le contexte original
- useApi.ts : hook useReplayCycle
- SystemLogs.tsx : bouton "Rejouer ce cycle" dans onglet Contexte IA avec champ
notes, résultats inline (liste des patterns générés), section price_discovery
ouverte par défaut en rouge
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Phase 2 — Données macro FRED :
- fred_fetcher.py (nouveau) : 7 séries FRED (CPI, NFP, UNRATE, FEDFUNDS, GDP, ICSA,
spread 10Y-2Y) avec détection direction bullish/bearish et block prompt formaté
- ai_analyzer.py : param fred_block dans suggest + score, injecté dans les deux prompts
- auto_cycle.py : fetch FRED non-bloquant avant la suggestion
Context log — Snapshot du contexte complet :
- database.py : table cycle_context_snapshots + save/get/list fonctions
- auto_cycle.py : sauvegarde le snapshot (meta, news partitionnées, FRED, tech, IV, quotes)
- cycle.py : GET /api/cycle/contexts + GET /api/cycle/contexts/{run_id}
- useApi.ts : hooks useCycleContextSnapshots + useCycleContextSnapshot
- SystemLogs.tsx : onglet "Contexte IA" avec liste de cycles et visualiseur JSON
par section (cycle_meta, macro, news, FRED, tech) avec accordéon
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- database.py: get_last_completed_cycle_ts() pour mesurer le delta entre cycles
- auto_cycle.py: calcul delta_minutes + cycle_meta dict transmis aux fonctions IA
- ai_analyzer.py: apply_news_decay() (halflife par catégorie), partition_news_by_age()
(3 buckets: inter_cycle / recent_24h / older), _build_temporal_news_block() pour
le prompt suggestion; cycle_meta injecté aussi dans score_patterns_with_context()
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- auto_cycle.py: replace _log with logger (NameError at lines 484/489)
- auto_cycle.py: normalize underlying via _normalize_ticker before _resolve_ticker
so WHEAT→ZW=F→WEAT and EUR/USD→EURUSD=X→FXE reach the IV watchlist correctly
- iv_engine.py: _resolve_ticker now strips slash-format forex (EUR/USD→EURUSD=X)
before _PROXY lookup, fixing yfinance 500/404 spam from get_atm_iv
- database.py: _fetch in log_trade_entries uses _normalize_ticker (not _normalize_yf_ticker)
so commodity aliases like WHEAT→ZW=F are applied at price-fetch time
- ai_analyzer.py: max_workers=1 for batch scorer — parallel workers both slept and
retried simultaneously after 429, causing repeated bursts; sequential fixes the pattern
- journal.py + JournalDeBord.tsx: add price_warning field (no_price_data/no_entry_price/
no_live_price) with visible ⚠ badge and amber color on affected ticker/price cells
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Ticker normalization (_normalize_ticker):
- EUR/USD slash-format → EURUSD=X (was passed raw to yfinance → 500/404 spam)
- bare 6-char forex pairs EURUSD/USDJPY etc → append =X
- commodity alias table: WHEAT→ZW=F, CORN→ZC=F, WTI→CL=F, BRENT→BZ=F,
GOLD→GC=F, SILVER→SI=F, NATGAS→NG=F, SUGAR→SB=F, + 15 others
- also normalize underlying at log_trade_entries time so stored tickers
are already canonical before MtM lookups
GPT-4o 429 rate limit:
- _chat() retries up to 3× on rate_limit errors, respects retry-after hint
from error message (e.g. "try again in 12.37s"), falls back to 2^n×5s
- batch scorer: parallel workers 4→2 to halve the token burst per cycle
(2 concurrent batches × ~6K tokens vs 4 × ~6K = 24K burst at 30K limit)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Sprint 2.1 — Pattern Reliability Score
- database.py: get_pattern_reliability() — win_rate × log(n+1) sur trades matures (≥35% horizon)
- database.py: get_all_pattern_reliability_map() pour injection rapide dans les prompts
- ai_analyzer.py: inject reliability_map dans suggest_patterns (patterns fiables mis en avant)
- auto_cycle.py: charge reliability_map avant suggestion et le passe au suggéreur
- routers/analytics.py: GET /api/analytics/reliability
- PatternEditor.tsx: ReliabilityBadge sur chaque card + usePatternReliability hook
- useApi.ts: usePatternReliability, useCalibration hooks
Sprint 2.2 — Contre-thèses & Invalidation Triggers
- database.py: migration ALTER TABLE — counter_thesis, invalidation_trigger, invalidation_probability
- database.py: save_custom_pattern() persiste les 3 nouveaux champs
- ai_analyzer.py: counter_thesis + invalidation_trigger + invalidation_probability dans le JSON schema
- auto_cycle.py: détection automatique des triggers d'invalidation contre les news (keyword match)
- routers/analytics.py: GET /api/analytics/invalidation-alerts
- PatternEditor.tsx: affichage contre-thèse dans les cards + champs dans le formulaire
- PatternEditor.tsx: affichage dans AiSuggestModal (suggestions IA)
- routers/patterns.py: PatternRequest inclut les 3 nouveaux champs
Sprint 2.3 — Calibration probabiliste & Demi-vie KB
- database.py: migration — predicted_probability sur pattern_score_history
- database.py: save_pattern_scores() stocke probability du pattern à chaque scoring run
- database.py: get_calibration_data() — Brier score + buckets de calibration par décile
- database.py: expires_at + confidence_decay_days sur knowledge_base
- database.py: decay_kb_confidence() — decay automatique + archivage à 0
- auto_cycle.py: decay_kb_confidence() appelé au début de chaque cycle (non-bloquant)
- routers/analytics.py: GET /api/analytics/calibration + POST /api/analytics/kb/decay
- frontend/src/pages/Analytics.tsx: nouvelle page — tableau fiabilité + calibration Brier
- App.tsx + Sidebar.tsx: route /analytics + entrée menu
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- ai_analyzer: add explicit calibration rules to SYSTEM_SCORER and batch
prompt so GPT-4o produces a spread of scores rather than defaulting
to 50 for all patterns (0-news patterns capped at 35, contra patterns
at 40, high-signal patterns can reach 70-85)
- auto_cycle: add _auto_synthesize_knowledge() called after each auto
portfolio snapshot; skips if last synthesis < 6h old to avoid
redundant GPT-4o calls — Super Contexte now updates automatically
every cycle without manual intervention
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
