Commit Graph

127 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
OpenSquared
776c19e1ae feat: macro series 2026-07-01 15:58:47 +02:00
OpenSquared
292d2c6413 feat: bank forceasts 2026-06-30 21:47:20 +02:00
OpenSquared
bb614936c3 feat: macro series 2026-06-30 19:08:33 +02:00
OpenSquared
12c298cf83 fix: graphe calculation 2026-06-30 12:00:42 +02:00
OpenSquared
ce7f89cf2a fix: graphe calculation 2026-06-30 11:45:55 +02:00
OpenSquared
f9dddb7184 feat: graph patch grammar DSL for causal editor
New grammar panel replaces free-text AI prompt with a two-step workflow:
1. NL to Grammar: GPT-4o converts description to patch ops (new endpoint ai-to-grammar)
2. Apply: frontend parser applies grammar locally without AI

Grammar syntax: (+|-|~)(node|edge|coef|input|instruments) key=val key=val
Sign shortcuts: + positive, - negative, = neutral
Auto-positions new nodes when x/y omitted.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-30 09:30:17 +02:00
OpenSquared
40d6f14901 feat: causal lab — chip filters, editor zoom, AI modify prompt
Library:
- Color chip filters: category (with per-category colors), sub_type, instrument
- Date range filter (created_at) + text search
- Category labels unified to cover event_calendar, fundamental, calendar_event etc.
- Editer button on selected template → opens in editor tab
- Show created_at + created_by in template detail

Editor:
- Accepts initialId prop so Library can pre-load a template
- AI Modify zone: textarea prompt + button calls /api/causal-lab/template/{id}/ai-modify
- Returns modified graph_json from GPT-4o, applied live — user reviews then saves

Backend:
- New POST /api/causal-lab/template/{id}/ai-modify endpoint
  - Sends current graph_json + user prompt to GPT-4o
  - Returns validated modified graph_json (nodes/edges required)
  - Does not auto-save (user controls save)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-30 09:04:15 +02:00
OpenSquared
b33d06cb97 debug: add db_state display + raw pred_json, expand YFINANCE_MAP
YFINANCE_MAP now includes GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, XAGUSD, NASDAQ, DAX, FTSE, WTI, US30Y, DXY.
Frontend diagnostic panel shows db_state rows after Recalculer and raw prediction_json prefix per event.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-29 23:31:15 +02:00
OpenSquared
05236c31f3 fix: preserve debug info across snapshot re-fetch + widen refresh filter
- refreshDebug state lives in parent (InstrumentDashboard) so it survives
  fetchSnapshotSilent re-render (ExplanationScore no longer loses debugInfo
  when onRefreshDone triggers setLoading → unmount)
- fetchSnapshotSilent: re-fetches snapshot without setLoading(true) so
  ExplanationScore stays mounted with its state
- Refresh filter now catches rows where prediction_json is empty even if
  actual_json is populated, and handles '[]' / null variants

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-29 23:20:17 +02:00
OpenSquared
c73bedd7d0 debug: expose full inputs/outputs in Recalculer response for diagnosis
_run_auto_analysis now returns a rich dict {ok, inputs, node_values, actual_moves, error}
instead of bool. The refresh endpoint captures and forwards:
- inputs: what values were fed to evaluate_graph
- node_keys: which nodes were computed in prediction
- actual_moves: actual price pips fetched
- run_error: exception message if it failed

Frontend shows all of this after clicking Recalculer so the root cause is visible.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-29 23:09:49 +02:00
OpenSquared
af73b77cba fix: ensure actual_json is computed for auto-generated templates
Auto-generated templates had no lag_days on edges → effective_lag_days=0 →
_drift_metrics used exact-date daily bar (often empty) → actual_json='{}' →
comprehensionScore returned null even after prediction_json was populated.

- Default effective_lag_days=5 when computed as 0 in _run_auto_analysis
- Add lag_days:3 to all auto-generated template edges in _build_graph_json_from_spec

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-29 23:05:10 +02:00
OpenSquared
c93eba7a7f fix: compute surprise_pct from actual/expected when NULL for auto-analysis scoring
Events with surprise_pct=NULL (bootstrap or older events) got inputs={} → evaluate_graph
returned {} → prediction_json='{}' → all scores showed 'En attente'.

Three-step fallback in _run_auto_analysis:
1. Use event.surprise_pct if set (existing behaviour)
2. Compute from actual_value / expected_value stored in market_events
3. Look up most recent ff_calendar release by currency + date

Frontend diagnostic now shows surprise_pct per event and exposes actual/expected
in the refresh result panel to make the source visible.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-29 22:54:57 +02:00
OpenSquared
959c2825df feat: instrument analysis 2026-06-29 22:38:50 +02:00
OpenSquared
b223f50f8b feat: market event 2026-06-29 21:16:29 +02:00
OpenSquared
f4a55a8009 feat: desk ia 2026-06-29 20:21:52 +02:00
OpenSquared
f7acca2152 feat: desk ia 2026-06-29 17:16:57 +02:00
OpenSquared
69418ab650 feat: desk ia 2026-06-29 15:45:21 +02:00
OpenSquared
9c30b58f22 feat: market event 2026-06-29 14:41:25 +02:00
OpenSquared
ac441ad5cb feat: market event 2026-06-29 12:49:12 +02:00
OpenSquared
79593a8fd3 feat: instrument analysis 2026-06-29 12:38:28 +02:00
OpenSquared
495ccfdee4 feat: market event 2026-06-29 11:48:52 +02:00
OpenSquared
c5d1f7b4bc feat: causal lab 2026-06-29 11:37:35 +02:00
OpenSquared
7ac7c4c619 feat: market event 2026-06-29 11:27:28 +02:00
OpenSquared
4be3ad9ce3 feat: market event 2026-06-29 11:15:08 +02:00
OpenSquared
9f90c97461 feat: market event 2026-06-29 11:05:25 +02:00
OpenSquared
bcdf1fbf2e feat: causal lab 2026-06-29 10:32:18 +02:00
OpenSquared
97077af369 feat: market event 2026-06-29 08:14:25 +02:00
OpenSquared
5e65424500 feat: instrument analysis 2026-06-29 00:06:14 +02:00
OpenSquared
6ebbf4326e feat: causal lab 2026-06-28 18:08:09 +02:00
OpenSquared
e4e17330b4 feat: instrument analysis 2026-06-28 16:36:28 +02:00
OpenSquared
1e44557551 feat:: causal lab 2026-06-28 15:38:19 +02:00
OpenSquared
863ba67610 feat: causal lab 2026-06-28 14:18:43 +02:00
OpenSquared
b94291623d feat: instrument analysis 2026-06-28 13:04:24 +02:00
OpenSquared
79d4a9f741 Calendar synchro 2026-06-28 12:15:25 +02:00
OpenSquared
98d6be8212 feat: temporal params (lag/diffusion/decay) sur aretes causales
- CausalEdge: lag_min, diffusion_min, decay_days
- SVG: labels +Xm (jaune, source) et decay (gris, cible) sur les aretes
- Editeur: champs lag/diffusion/decay dans add-edge et edit-edge
- Bibliotheque: section Parametres temporels avec grille editable + sauvegarde PATCH
- Backend: _drift_metrics utilise lag_min pour decaler fenetre intraday 5min
- analyze: calcule effective_lag depuis aretes → market_asset, retourne dans resultat

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-28 11:47:04 +02:00
OpenSquared
1117e9ee8a feat: causal lab - delete template + observable mapping + edge editing
- TabLibrary: bouton Supprimer (templates user uniquement)
- TabEditor: inputMapping dans EditorState, panneau mapping visible quand noeud observable selectionne
- TabEditor: edition d aretes (cliquer sur arête pour modifier style/force/signe/label)
- Backend: GET /api/causal-lab/data-sources (prices/macro_series/ff_events)
- analyze: auto-fetch market_watchlist+economic_events+ff_calendar depuis input_mapping
- TabAnalyze: affiche inputs auto-recuperes vs manuels dans les resultats

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-28 10:53:50 +02:00
OpenSquared
dd31f92aaf feat: causal lab - bouton Mettre a jour + PATCH endpoint
- TabEditor: updateExisting() + bouton bleu visible si templateId set
- Bouton Creer renomme en copie pour clarifier
- PATCH /api/causal-lab/template/{id} pour graph_json + metadonnees

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-28 10:02:28 +02:00
OpenSquared
e8fb7c13aa feat: causal lab — éditeur visuel, types nœuds, force/signe arêtes, NFP v2 2026-06-28 09:28:43 +02:00
OpenSquared
7a0263989a feat: causal lab — debug endpoint + error display in UI 2026-06-27 23:36:22 +02:00
OpenSquared
a7f5369d7b Causal lab v2 2026-06-27 23:25:59 +02:00
OpenSquared
9ac3ebb4b5 causal lab 2026-06-27 21:45:10 +02:00
OpenSquared
e27ff72c1c feat: simulateur EUR/USD — canaux taux/ton séparés + saisie directe sliders
Modèle causal refactorisé en deux canaux distincts :
- Canal taux (solid) : variations taux directeurs → principalement 2Y (ancrage court terme)
- Canal ton/anticipations (tirets) : discours CB + surprises CPI/NFP → principalement 10Y (anticipations long terme)

Slider : clic sur la valeur affichée → input éditable (Enter/Blur pour valider, Escape pour annuler)

Backend : endpoint /api/simulator/baseline expose us_10y et eu_10y (yfinance ^TNX + GE10YT=RR)

SVG mis à jour : 4 nœuds de taux (2Y/10Y US+EU), 2 nœuds différentiels, flèches solides/tirets
Strip métrique : 6 cellules (US 2Y, US 10Y, Bund 2Y, Bund 10Y, Δ 2Y, Δ 10Y)
Décomposition : séparation "Δ 2Y — taux directeurs" / "Δ 10Y — anticipations/ton"

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 23:08:08 +02:00
OpenSquared
fe86cc1994 feat: EUR/USD simulator — live baseline from market data
Backend (routers/simulator.py):
- GET /api/simulator/baseline aggregates current market values:
  1. macro_gauge_snapshots → VIX, Brent oil
  2. FRED economic_events  → FEDFUNDS, ECBDFR, DFII10 (real yield)
  3. yfinance live         → EURUSD=X, ^IRX+^FVX interpolated US 2Y,
                             DE2YT=RR EU 2Y (or ECB rate +15bps fallback),
                             ^VIX, BZ=F
- Returns sources dict so frontend can show data provenance

Frontend (EuroSimulator.tsx):
- Fetch /api/simulator/baseline on mount; use as base anchors
- compute(p, base) now takes dynamic base instead of hardcoded constants
- Reset button returns to today's live baseline, not hardcoded fallback
- Live/Fallback status badge with fetch date
- Sources panel showing data origin per field
- Chart reference line updates to show live base values

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 22:42:18 +02:00
OpenSquared
87ded9434f feat: import Trading Economics HTML calendar — 993 events with forecasts
Adds a one-click upload+parse flow for the TE calendar page HTML.
The TE page (tradingeconomics.com/calendar) contains ~1000 events with
actuals, previous, and analyst consensus (forecast) values.

- Add backend/services/te_html_parser.py:
  - parse_html(html): extracts events from <tr data-event> rows
  - Maps 14 countries to major currencies (all Eurozone → EUR)
  - Impact inferred from data-category (high/medium/low)
  - Times converted from Europe/Zurich (CET/CEST) → UTC via zoneinfo
  - Actual=td[5], Forecast=td[7] (analyst consensus), Previous=td[6]
- Add POST /api/eco/te-html-upload (saves file to /tmp)
- Add POST /api/eco/te-html-import + GET /status (background parse)
- Add "Import TE HTML" upload button in CalendarPage ImportPanel

Tested locally: 993 events parsed, 854 with forecast, 861 with actual,
date range 2025-03-31 → 2026-06-17, timezone conversion verified.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 18:15:02 +02:00
OpenSquared
bdbb87962d feat: FXStreet calendar — free upcoming events with forecasts (no API key)
FXStreet calendar.fxstreet.com/eventdate/ returns ~300-400 events over
6 weeks including consensus forecasts, no authentication required.
FF HTML scraper is blocked by Cloudflare even on residential IPs.
FMP free plan returns 403 on /economic_calendar (requires Starter plan).

- Add backend/services/fxstreet_calendar.py: single GET request returning
  all major currencies; maps Volatility 0/1/2 → low/medium/high
- Add POST /api/eco/fxs-sync + GET /api/eco/fxs-sync/status endpoints
- Add FXStreet to daily background sync in main.py (runs every 24h)
- Add "Sync Upcoming (FXStreet)" button in ImportPanel (no key needed)
- Fix FMP 403 error message to say endpoint requires Starter plan
- Keep FMP panel for users who upgrade to FMP Starter ($14.99/month)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 17:54:15 +02:00
OpenSquared
5c86d6e715 feat: replace Trading Economics with FMP for upcoming calendar forecasts
TE costs $199/month and its Economic Calendar is not in the free tier.
FMP (Financial Modeling Prep) offers a free API key (250 req/day) with
full economic calendar coverage including consensus estimates (forecasts).

- Add backend/services/fmp_calendar.py: fetches upcoming events from
  GET /api/v3/economic_calendar (one request, all countries, date range)
- Replace /api/eco/te-key + te-sync endpoints with fmp-key + fmp-sync
- Update daily background sync in main.py to use fmp_calendar
- Replace TEPanel with FMPPanel in CalendarPage.tsx (link to FMP docs)
- Remove broken Cloudflare-blocked FF HTML scrape button from ImportPanel

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 17:42:09 +02:00
OpenSquared
ec6fcc1e3d feat: Trading Economics API for upcoming events with forecasts
- New services/te_calendar.py: fetch_upcoming(weeks_ahead) calls TE API
  for 9 countries (USD/EUR/GBP/JPY/AUD/CAD/NZD/CHF/CNY), converts to
  ff_calendar format, upserts with source='te_api'
- New endpoints: GET/POST /api/eco/te-key, POST /api/eco/te-sync,
  GET /api/eco/te-sync/status
- Daily scheduler in main.py: FF live sync + TE sync (if key configured)
  run 60s after startup then every 24h
- CalendarPage: TEPanel with key input (password field, Enter to save,
  "Get free key" link to tradingeconomics.com/api/login),
  "Sync upcoming (6 weeks)" button with polling

FF HTML scraper kept as fallback but TE API is the primary source
for upcoming forecasts (no Cloudflare blocking on server IPs).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 17:30:16 +02:00
OpenSquared
d9762deca7 feat: custom date range filter on calendar page
- Backend: /api/eco/calendar accepts date_from + date_to query params
  when period=custom; get_calendar() uses them directly without override
  Limit raised to 5000 for wide date ranges
- Frontend: "Custom" tab at end of period list; shows two date inputs
  (from/to) with Apply button; displays day count; fetches on Apply click
  (not on every keystroke to avoid hammering the API)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 17:17:01 +02:00
OpenSquared
c36b2b2198 feat: FF HTML scraper for upcoming weeks with forecasts
- scrape_upcoming(weeks_ahead=5) in ff_calendar.py:
  fetches forexfactory.com/calendar?week=... HTML for N weeks ahead,
  parses calendar__table (date/time/currency/impact/event/forecast/previous),
  converts ET times to UTC, upserts into ff_calendar
- Daily scheduler in main.py: runs scrape_upcoming at startup (after 30s delay)
  then every 24h — no manual action needed
- New endpoints: POST /api/eco/ff-scrape?weeks=5, GET /api/eco/ff-scrape/status
- CalendarPage: "Scrape Upcoming (5w)" button (indigo) with polling + result

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 17:14:00 +02:00
OpenSquared
7aca0c307a feat: FF CSV bundled in image + auto-import on startup
- forex_factory_cache.csv moved to backend/ (Docker build context)
  → available at /app/forex_factory_cache.csv inside container
- main.py startup: auto-imports CSV in background thread if ff_calendar empty
  (idempotent — skips if rows already present)
- CSV path candidates: /app/ (Docker) → /tmp/ (upload) → local dev paths
- CalendarPage: remove Upload CSV + Import into DB buttons
  → replaced by auto-import status indicator + Sync Live only

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-26 16:58:31 +02:00