feat: instrument analysis

frontend/src/pages/InstrumentDashboard.tsx

@@ -762,17 +762,49 @@ function CausalFrise({
   } | null>(null)
   const [popupScore, setPopupScore] = useState<number | null | 'loading'>('loading')
 
-  // Fetch activation_score live when popup opens for a specific event
+  // Fetch analysis live when popup opens — compute same precision as MarketEvents expanded view
   useEffect(() => {
     const evId = activeChip?.ev.id
     if (!evId) { setPopupScore(null); return }
     setPopupScore('loading')
     api.get(`/causal-lab/analyses?market_event_id=${evId}&limit=1`)
       .then(r => {
-        const score = r.data?.[0]?.activation_score
-        setPopupScore(score != null ? Math.round(score * 100) : null)
+        const analysis = r.data?.[0]
+        console.log('[CausalFrise] analysis for event', evId, analysis)
+        if (!analysis) { setPopupScore(null); return }
+
+        // Compute magnitude-weighted precision (same formula as MarketEvents expanded panel)
+        const preds: Record<string, number> = analysis.prediction_json || {}
+        const actuals: Record<string, number> = analysis.actual_json || {}
+        const graph = analysis.graph_json || {}
+        const outputNodes: { id: string; instrument?: string }[] = (graph.nodes || [])
+          .filter((n: { type?: string }) => n.type === 'market_asset' || n.type === 'output')
+
+        console.log('[CausalFrise] preds:', preds, 'actuals:', actuals, 'outputNodes:', outputNodes)
+
+        const nodeScores = outputNodes.map((n: { id: string; instrument?: string }) => {
+          const pred = preds[n.id]
+          const act = actuals[n.instrument || n.id] ?? actuals[n.id]
+          if (pred == null || act == null) return null
+          if (pred === 0 && act === 0) return 100
+          if (pred === 0) return 40
+          const sameDir = pred * act > 0
+          if (!sameDir) return 0
+          const ratio = Math.min(Math.abs(act), Math.abs(pred)) / Math.max(Math.abs(act), Math.abs(pred))
+          return Math.round(50 + ratio * 50)
+        }).filter((s): s is number => s != null)
+
+        console.log('[CausalFrise] nodeScores:', nodeScores)
+
+        if (nodeScores.length > 0) {
+          setPopupScore(Math.round(nodeScores.reduce((a, b) => a + b, 0) / nodeScores.length))
+        } else {
+          // Fallback: use stored activation_score if no prediction data
+          const stored = analysis.activation_score
+          setPopupScore(stored != null ? Math.round(stored * 100) : null)
+        }
       })
-      .catch(() => setPopupScore(null))
+      .catch(err => { console.error('[CausalFrise] fetch error:', err); setPopupScore(null) })
   }, [activeChip?.ev.id])
 
   useEffect(() => {