Commit Graph

87 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
OpenSquared
0b1fcff49c feat: Market Events — catégories, cleanup sidebar, rename
- Supprime Timeline & ImpactMonitor du routing (redirects /impact + /timeline → /market-events)
- Renomme 'Instrument Snap.' → 'Instrument Analysis' dans la sidebar
- Onglet 'Catégories & Defaults' dans Market Events: CRUD complet (créer/éditer/supprimer)
  chaque catégorie a une table d'impacts par défaut (instrument, sensibilité, direction, notes)
- impact_service: meilleur matching catégorie (sub_type fuzzy + type fallback)
- DB: delete_event_category() + DELETE /api/impact/categories/{name}

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-25 21:11:24 +02:00
OpenSquared
bd28b6a73a feat: origin tracing on all market_events
- DB: colonne origin (migration + UPDATE heuristique sur données legacy)
- save/update_market_event: persist origin
- Tous les points de création taguent leur origine:
    bootstrap_macro/eco/ma/legacy | detector_news/eco/technical/report | manual
- UI MarketEvents: badge d'origine avec icône + description dans le panneau détail,
  icône tooltip dans la liste gauche, message explicite si pas de source_refs

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-25 20:58:05 +02:00
OpenSquared
d5da4737ef feat: Market Events admin page — source_refs + per-instrument impacts
- DB: colonne source_refs sur market_events (migration idempotente)
- save/update_market_event: persist source_refs (JSON array de {url,title,source})
- market_event_detector: stocke source_refs + évalue impacts instruments après chaque création
- Nouveau router /api/market-events: CRUD + evaluate + impacts CRUD
- Page MarketEvents.tsx: liste filtrée/triée + panneau détail (sources cliquables,
  tableau impacts par instrument avec score/direction/rationale inline-éditables,
  ajout manuel, bulk-evaluate)
- Sidebar: entrée Market Events (Radio icon)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-25 18:29:09 +02:00
OpenSquared
9afc01c7f5 feat: isolated cycle action — Check New Market Events
Décompose le cycle en 8 actions appelables individuellement.
Action 1 implémentée : scan de 4 sources (news RSS, surprises FRED,
MA crossovers yfinance, rapports institutionnels) → création de
market_events avec déduplication. UI CycleActions page + sidebar link.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-25 18:07:38 +02:00
OpenSquared
51a5531454 refactor: align market_events categories with driver types + event stars on chart
- database.py: idempotent migration — calendar→event_calendar, geopolitique→geopolitical,
  macro events classified by name pattern (FOMC/CPI/BOJ/OPEC+→event_calendar,
  NVIDIA→report, rest→fundamental)
- eco_calendar_bootstrap.py: calendar→event_calendar (75 events)
- macro_events_bootstrap.py: all 30 events now carry aligned category + sub_type
  (FOMC×9, CPI×3, BOJ×3, OPEC+×2 → event_calendar ; war/geo×6 → geopolitical ;
   ChatGPT/BTC/PBOC → fundamental ; NVIDIA×2 → report)
- InstrumentDashboard: replace EventTimelineStrip (horizontal bars below chart)
  with EventStarsStrip (★ icons above chart, sized by impact_score, colored by category)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-25 17:01:07 +02:00
OpenSquared
a68896cf67 feat: Impact Monitor — AI impact evaluation for eco events & geopolitical news
- New DB tables: event_categories (18 bootstrap categories) + instrument_impacts
- impact_categories_bootstrap.py: FOMC/NFP/CPI/GDP/PCE/ISM/BOJ/ECB/BOE/OPEC+ + 7 géopolitical categories with per-instrument sensitivity & direction defaults
- impact_service.py: GPT-4o-mini evaluation (0-1 score, direction, rationale) + monitor data aggregation
- routers/impact.py: GET/POST endpoints for evaluate/bulk/monitor/adjust/categories
- ImpactMonitor.tsx: two-tab page (Évalués / À évaluer), top instruments bar, inline score override modal, category browser
- Startup auto-bootstrap for impact categories
- Route /impact + sidebar nav entry

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-25 16:26:13 +02:00
OpenSquared
3470205d54 feat: eco calendar bootstrap + driver types + timeline cursor
Backend:
- eco_calendar_bootstrap.py: 75 historical events 2020-2026 (FOMC, NFP,
  CPI, GDP, ISM, BOJ, ECB, BOE) with expected_value/actual_value/
  surprise_pct/unit/absorption_pct fields
- database.py: 5 new columns on market_events (expected_value,
  actual_value, surprise_pct, unit, sub_type) + updated save_market_event
- timeline.py: POST /api/timeline/bootstrap-eco endpoint
- instrument_service.py: _get_relevant_events now returns eco fields
- instruments.json: type field on all 90 drivers across 20 instruments
  (event_calendar | report | geopolitical | fundamental | sentiment | technical)

Frontend (InstrumentDashboard):
- EventTimelineStrip: vertical cursor line tracking crosshair selectedDate
- EventsCard: active-event highlight at hovered date + expected/actual/
  surprise_pct display + absorption progress bar
- DriversPanel: type selector dropdown per driver
- DriverTypeBadge: colored micro-badge on driver labels in strip

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-25 00:07:41 +02:00
OpenSquared
aec9ced74f feat: macro regime + 30 historical events + regime confidence fix
- Add macro_regime (goldilocks/stagflation/recession/etc.) to every instrument snapshot via get_macro_gauges() + score_macro_scenarios()
- RegimeCard now shows global macro cycle section (emoji + label + top-3 scenarios) above technical signals
- Fix _detect_regime() confidence: capped at 85% max; add late-bull (dist_MA200 > 20%) and correction-in-bull (MA50 > MA200 but momentum < -3%) detection so regime no longer locks at 100%
- Add macro_events_bootstrap.py with 30 curated historical events (FOMC 2022-2025, CPI surprises, Ukraine/Hamas/Iran geopolitics, BOJ pivots, Bitcoin ETF, Liberation Day tariffs, SVB crisis, etc.)
- POST /api/timeline/bootstrap-macro endpoint (idempotent, deduplicates by name)
- Fix event date filter in _get_relevant_events(): overlap logic instead of start-only filter — events extending into the chart window are now included
- EventTimelineStrip: add "Signaux Techniques" fallback row for events not matched by any driver keyword (MA crossovers are now always visible)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 23:24:24 +02:00
OpenSquared
aa81598278 feat: driver-based timeline strip, regime signal metrics, drivers editor
- instruments.json: add keywords array to every driver across 20 instruments
  (Fed, BCE, BOJ, OPEC, CPI, AI, EIA, etc.) for event-to-driver matching
- instrument_service.py: add update_instrument_drivers() persisting changes to JSON
  and refreshing in-memory cache
- instruments.py: add PUT /api/instruments/{id}/drivers endpoint (DriverUpdate model)
- InstrumentDashboard:
  * RegimeCard: replace regime score bars with 6-metric signal grid
    (MA50/MA200 position, MA50 slope, MA200 slope, momentum 20j, dist MA200, ATR vol ratio)
    with colour-coded values and contextual sub-labels (Golden cross, Surextension, etc.)
  * EventTimelineStrip: rows now keyed by top-4 instrument drivers (by weight)
    instead of LT/MT/CT; events matched via case-insensitive keyword scan against
    title + description + category; fallback dashed line when no events match
  * DriversPanel: inline edit panel (toggle via Drivers button in header);
    edit label, weight, keywords (comma-separated) per driver; add/remove drivers;
    saves via PUT /api/instruments/{id}/drivers; optimistic local state update

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 22:48:10 +02:00
OpenSquared
418d03254d feat: InstrumentDashboard — event timeline strip + crosshair date-aware cards
- InstrumentChart: onDateHover callback via subscribeCrosshairMove (useRef pattern)
- EventTimelineStrip: 3 rows LT/MT/CT with CSS-% bars aligned to chart X axis
- Cards date-aware: crosshair drives selectedDate; dateTrend + dateSignals computed
  client-side from lookup maps (priceMap/indMap/sortedDates) without extra API calls
- TrendCard: price, RSI, ATR, slopes, momentum, 52W range all at selected date
- RegimeCard: 5 signals recomputed at selected date; regime label from server
- Date badge above cards; blue tint when browsing history, grey on last date
- instrument_service.py: end_date in events; price_data built before events block

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 22:21:04 +02:00
OpenSquared
d47fc8f50d fix: move instruments.json from data/ to config/ — Docker volume was masking /app/data
The docker-compose mounts db_data named volume at /app/data which hid the
instruments.json file baked into the image. Moving to /app/config which is
not volume-overlaid resolves the FileNotFoundError on startup.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 21:42:19 +02:00
OpenSquared
537fea8148 feat: Instrument Snapshot Dashboard — 5-layer synchronized view for 20 instruments
- 20 instruments configured (equity indices, metals, energy, bonds, FX, stocks, crypto)
  each with custom drivers, regime labels, MA periods, event keywords, ai_context
- InstrumentChart: TradingView lightweight-charts candlesticks + MA lines + Bollinger
  + volume histogram + macro event markers overlaid on price
- InstrumentDashboard: regime detection card (scores + signals), trend indicators
  (RSI gauge, MA slopes, momentum, 52W range), events card (links to Timeline),
  AI narrative via GPT-4o-mini (cached by day)
- Backend: instrument_service (OHLCV fetch, indicators, regime scoring, GPT narrative)
  + /api/instruments router (3 endpoints)
- Route: /instruments/:id with selector dropdown, period buttons (3M/6M/1Y/2Y/5Y)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 21:36:39 +02:00
OpenSquared
edfa90c9b7 feat: vertical 3-column timeline + MA regime bootstrap engine
- TimelineVertical: replace horizontal frise with Y=time vertical layout,
  3 columns (Long/Medium/Short), auto-scroll to selected date, sub-columns
  for overlapping events, today/selected-date horizontal lines
- ma_analyzer.py: detect MA50/MA200 crossovers + MA100 slope changes +
  MA20 direction swings on EUR/USD, Brent, Gold, S&P500, US10Y (5y history)
  with 5-bar confirmation, dedup, GPT-4o-mini enrichment, idempotent DB save
- POST /api/timeline/bootstrap-ma endpoint to trigger analysis
- Bootstrap MA button in Timeline page with loading state + result count

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 21:01:01 +02:00
OpenSquared
aeb5233deb feat: frise sub-lanes + event manager + MA indicators + absorption
Frise chronologique:
- Sub-lane stacking (assignSubLanes) — overlapping events se décalent verticalement
- Zone d'overlap semi-transparente sur la période commune entre 2 événements
- Hauteur dynamique selon nb de sub-lanes par niveau
- Événements en cours avec flèche ▶ à droite, gradient de fin
- Tri par start_date pour placement greedy

Event Manager (composant EventManager.tsx):
- Tableau filtrable par niveau (Long/Moyen/Court)
- Edit modal complet : tous les champs + absorption_pct éditable
- Bouton "IA — Enrichir" par événement → POST /api/timeline/events/{id}/ai-enrich
  → GPT-4o-mini suggère absorption_pct + indicateurs pertinents par niveau temporel
- Delete avec confirmation double-clic
- Expand row pour voir description + indicateurs
- Intégré Timeline page via bouton "Gérer événements"

Backend:
- Nouvelles colonnes market_events: absorption_pct + relevant_indicators (ALTER idempotent)
- DELETE /api/timeline/events/{id}
- POST /api/timeline/events/{id}/ai-enrich

Snapshot Externe:
- AbsorptionBar par événement dans cellule Géopolitique
- MA indicators : fetch 200j history, compute MA10/MA20/MA100 per level (short/med/long)
- Affichage prix vs MA + % écart dans CellMarkets
- Si relevant_indicators configurés sur l'event → utilise ces symbols au lieu des défauts
- Calendar : horizons exclusifs (short 0-7j, medium 8-30j, long 31-90j) — bug corrigé

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 20:31:57 +02:00
OpenSquared
c6178c14d5 feat: Timeline Navigator — contexte historique 3 temporalités COVID → aujourd'hui
- 2 nouvelles tables SQLite : market_events + timeline_context
- 32 événements historiques seedés (long/medium/short de feb 2020 à juin 2026)
- timeline_service.py : bootstrap, get_events_for_date, génération commentaires GPT-4o-mini
- /api/timeline router : GET /day/{date}, GET /events, POST /generate/{date}, POST /bootstrap
- Timeline.tsx : navigateur date avec strip visuel, 3 panneaux contextuels, catalogue d'événements
- Sidebar : entrée Timeline avec icône Layers

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 17:45:35 +02:00
OpenSquared
281b7e30ba fix: forward curve — stop 40+ yfinance errors per cycle, batch downloads
Two root causes in the logs:
1. fetch_forward_curves() tried 5 offsets × 8 commodities = 40 individual
   yfinance requests for monthly contracts (CLN26, GCQ26, etc.) that Yahoo
   Finance does not support — generating ERROR storm and triggering hard
   rate limiting that cascades onto front-month CL=F/GC=F calls used by
   the main cycle.
2. Ticker format lacked exchange suffix (.NYM/.CMX/.CBT).

Fix: replace the per-ticker loop with two batch yfinance.download() calls
(one for all 8 front-months, one for all deferred candidates). Failed
deferred lookups are logged at DEBUG level and reported as structure='unknown'
rather than ERROR, since Yahoo Finance does not expose monthly commodity
contracts reliably. Added 1s sleep between batches to avoid rate spiking.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-24 08:30:15 +02:00
OpenSquared
c9f7757a86 fix: COT fetch returns 0 — CFTC exchange names changed since 2022
Replace per-endpoint market name matching with unified contract code
lookup on the legacy Socrata endpoint (6dca-aqww.json). COMEX became
"COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.", CBOT became "CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE", and
the disaggregated endpoints stopped receiving Natural Gas / financial
instruments after Feb 2022. Contract codes (067651, 023651, etc.) are
stable across rebranding. Fetch now returns 19/19 markets dated
2026-06-16.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 18:53:51 +02:00
OpenSquared
5005324653 fix: SQLite UNIQUE constraint on forward_curve_data — expressions not allowed
Replace UNIQUE(asset, DATE(fetched_at)) with dedicated fetch_date column
+ UNIQUE(asset, fetch_date). SQLite prohibits function calls in inline
UNIQUE/PRIMARY KEY constraints.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 18:07:29 +02:00
OpenSquared
3b7fa35456 feat: Specialist Desks v2 — COT, Forward Curves, Surprise Index, Hawk/Dove scorer
- COT Positioning: CFTC disaggregated + financial futures (19 markets) via Socrata free API
  net MM position % OI + weekly change stored in cot_data table
- Forward Curves: yfinance front-month vs +3M slope (8 commodities)
  contango/backwardation/flat stored in forward_curve_data table
- Surprise Index: consensus_estimate + actual_value on specialist_reports
  auto-computes surprise_score = actual - consensus on save
- Hawk/Dove Text Scorer: GPT-4o-mini endpoint for CB statements
  score -1..+1, label, summary, key_phrases (forex/bonds: hawk/dove; commodities: bull/bear)
- AI context injection: COT net positioning, forward curve structure,
  surprise scores, upcoming consensus estimates injected into all desk blocks
- Frontend: COT panel (net% bars), Forward Curves panel, SurpriseInput
  on report cards, Hawk/Dove scorer in forex/bonds config tab
- auto_cycle.py: non-blocking COT + curve refresh before each cycle

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 18:00:46 +02:00
OpenSquared
70a9e2b569 fix: inject specialist desks context into pattern suggestion prompt
suggest_patterns_from_market_context() was missing the specialist desk
block that score_patterns_with_context() already received. All 7 desks
(forex, metals, agri, energy, indices, crypto, bonds) with their
fundamentals, macro sensitivity, and upcoming reports are now injected
so the AI can generate targeted patterns per desk rather than generic ones.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 13:41:50 +02:00
OpenSquared
91f12e177f feat: pattern calibration — progressive AI→observed expected_move blending
DB (database.py):
- 3 new columns on custom_patterns: calibrated_expected_move, calibration_weight, observed_avg_win_pct
- update_bayesian_posteriors() now also computes credibility blend w=n/(n+5):
  calibrated = (1-w)*ai_estimate + w*observed_avg_win_pct (only when wins exist)
- log_trade_entries() prefers calibrated_expected_move when w>10%
- get_calibration_summary() returns per-pattern state (source: pure_ai/early/mixed/data_driven)

Backend (patterns.py, auto_cycle.py):
- GET /api/patterns/calibration endpoint
- calibration_report block in cycle report: counts by source, avg weight, per-pattern detail

Frontend (PatternExplorer.tsx, RapportIA.tsx, useApi.ts):
- MaturityBadge on each PatternCard: blend bar (AI→observed), win rate, AI estimate vs calibrated
- usePatternCalibration hook
- Cycle report: calibration section with global bar + per-pattern table (weight%, n_trades, WR, AI→calibrated)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 12:38:16 +02:00
OpenSquared
8d257adf3d fix: scheduler next_run accounts for elapsed time since last cycle
On restart the scheduler was counting interval_hours from now, ignoring
when the last cycle actually ran. It now reads last_run_at (in-memory or
DB) and deducts elapsed time so a restart doesn't silently push the next
fire by a full interval.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 10:52:54 +02:00
OpenSquared
2fb683eec5 feat: Specialist Desks — per asset-class fundamental configs + report catalogue
- 7 pre-seeded desks (Forex, Metals, Agri, Energy, Indices, Crypto, Bonds)
  each with default fundamental drivers, macro regime sensitivities and
  price delta thresholds
- Global report catalogue (specialist_reports) fully manual — add any report
  including non-calendar ones (e.g. Cocoa Grinding Report, ICCO)
- Many-to-many report ↔ desk linking (report_desk_links table)
- 12 default reports pre-seeded (COT, EIA, WASDE, FOMC, ECB, CPI, NFP…)
- AI scorer injects SPECIALIST DESK context block for asset classes present
  in each scoring batch (upcoming reports, key drivers, regime sensitivity)
- /specialist-desks page: desk sidebar + fundamentals editor + macro
  sensitivity tag editor + reports tab + global reports catalogue + modal
  to create/edit any report with desk assignment

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-23 09:57:18 +02:00
OpenSquared
33097e1812 fix: custom tickers now placed in their natural asset-class tab
- Detect yfinance quote_type (CURRENCY→forex, FUTURE→energy, INDEX→indices,
  ETF→etfs, EQUITY→equities) when adding a custom ticker and persist it in
  market_watchlist.asset_class
- get_all_quotes() merges custom tickers into their proper group (e.g. EURUSD=X
  appears under Forex) instead of always under a separate "Custom" group
- "Custom" tab only shows tickers whose type couldn't be detected
- Add market_watchlist.asset_class migration; ensure backtest_lab_runs and
  market_watchlist are always created at init_db() time

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 22:11:31 +02:00
OpenSquared
c3ea0b7f8c feat: dynamic market ticker watchlist (Markets page)
Add ability to add/remove custom tickers (e.g. EURCHF=X) on the
Markets & Prices page without editing config. Tickers are validated
via yfinance, persisted in market_watchlist SQLite table, merged into
the quotes feed as a 'custom' group, and shown in a dedicated tab
with per-card remove buttons.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 21:54:58 +02:00
OpenSquared
a435c11246 feat: regime system — Find Matching + By Regime view
- Pattern Lab: "Find Matching" button per pattern uses GPT-4o-mini to classify against library (merge_as_instance / counter_scenario / new_pattern); shows match badge + confidence + suggested #regime_tag; conditional action buttons (Merge / Save counter / Save new)
- save_pattern_from_run handles action='instance' (appends to historical_instances + updates stats), action='counter' (new pattern with counter_of link, tags parent regime_tag), action='new' (unchanged + regime_tag support)
- useApi.ts: extended useSaveLabPattern type + new useFindMatchingPattern mutation + MatchResult export type
- DB migrations: regime_tag + counter_of columns on custom_patterns
- PatternExplorer: new "By Regime" view groups saved patterns by regime_tag; RegimeCard shows historical instances, hit rate, counter-of link (orange); untagged group at bottom

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 20:52:11 +02:00
OpenSquared
198341b0c2 fix: trade_budget_eur + preferred_horizon saved and reloaded in Config
Backend:
- CycleConfigRequest: add trade_budget_eur, preferred_horizon_min/max fields
  (were missing — Pydantic silently dropped them, so saves never reached set_config)
- update_cycle_config: handle + persist the 3 new fields via set_config
- get_status(): read + return trade_budget_eur/preferred_horizon_min/max from DB
  (were missing — frontend always fell back to React default values on page load)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 20:25:31 +02:00
OpenSquared
6cca7f66b6 feat: ticker validation + SLV/USO/WEAT/CORN/TUR added to ETFs watchlist
Backend:
- GET /api/market/validate?symbol= — validates ticker against yfinance,
  returns {valid, name, price} or {valid: false, reason: 'helpful message'}
- Added SLV, USO, WEAT, CORN, TUR to ETFs WATCHLIST category

Frontend:
- validateTicker() async helper exported from useApi.ts
- InstrumentPicker (PatternLab): custom ticker field now validates before selecting
  Shows spinner while checking, red error message if not found on yfinance
- InstrumentLens (PatternExplorer): same validation on Go button + Enter key

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 20:15:26 +02:00
OpenSquared
a92094e1f3 feat: add ETFs tab to Markets page (SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD, EEM, IWM, HYG…)
- New 'etfs' asset class in WATCHLIST: 18 key ETFs used in Pattern Lab presets
  (SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, IEF, HYG, GLD, EEM, FXI, EWG, EWJ, EWU, EWZ,
   XLF, SMH, KWEB, UUP, BIL)
- Added 'etfs' tab between Indices and Equities in Markets page
- Extended AssetClass union type to include 'etfs'

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 20:09:01 +02:00
OpenSquared
5ac7b8a088 feat: 3-tier outcome scoring + options P&L simulation in Pattern Lab
Backend (pattern_lab.py):
- Replace binary HIT/MISS with FULL / PARTIAL / MISS scoring
  FULL: right direction AND ≥ 50% of expected move
  PARTIAL: right direction AND ≥ 15% of expected move (was always MISS before)
  MISS: wrong direction or negligible move
- Add direction_correct, direction_ratio, hit_type fields to all outcomes
- Add Black-Scholes ATM options P&L simulation (_bs_price, _ncdf, _sigma_for)
  Normalised to S₀=K=100, per-asset-class vol heuristic (FX 8%, indices 16%, crypto 65%)
  Supports: long call/put, straddle, strangle, call spread, put spread
- estimated_options_pnl_pct shows what the strategy would have returned

Frontend (PatternLab.tsx):
- OutcomeRow component: FULL HIT (green) / PARTIAL (amber) / MISS (red)
- Shows direction tick/cross + ratio % of target achieved
- Shows estimated options P&L with DollarSign icon
- Hit rate header shows full hits + partial count separately
- Card border: emerald = full, amber = partial, red = miss

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 18:36:33 +02:00
OpenSquared
303ecc2a3a feat: instrument picker + Pattern Lab instrument scan mode
- instruments.ts: 90 IB-options-tradable instruments in 12 categories
  (US Indices, Europe, Asia, EM, Sectors, Forex, Bonds, Metals, Energy,
   Agriculture, Crypto, Volatility) — EUR/CHF, Cotton, etc. all included

- PatternExplorer: replace text input in Instrument Lens with categorised
  grid picker (category pill filters + search + custom ticker fallback)

- PatternLab: add Instrument Scan tab alongside Event Presets
  - Pick any instrument from the shared categorised picker
  - Set period (start/end date) + horizon per pattern
  - AI scans the full period: identifies 4-6 key pattern instances each with
    their own entry date, expected move, strategy
  - 'Evaluate outcomes' fetches actual price at T+horizon per pattern
  - 'Save pattern' promotes any instance to the Pattern Library

- backend/services/pattern_lab.py: run_instrument_scan() + evaluate_instrument_outcomes()
  (per-pattern analysis_date vs shared date in event mode)
- backend/routers/pattern_lab.py: POST /instrument-scan + POST /evaluate-instrument/{id}
- useApi.ts: useInstrumentScan + useEvaluateInstrumentScan hooks

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 18:20:22 +02:00
OpenSquared
cbf989502c feat: Pattern Lab — historical backtest engine for pattern discovery
- Remove all built-in patterns (no proof of legitimacy); seed_builtin_patterns is now a no-op
- DB: add backtest_lab_runs table + backtest_hits/runs_count columns on patterns
- services/pattern_lab.py: build_historical_context (yfinance + RSI/MA200),
  run_ai_backtest (GPT-4o as historical analyst), evaluate_outcomes (actual moves at T+horizon)
- routers/pattern_lab.py: POST /run, POST /evaluate/{id}, GET /runs, DELETE /runs/{id},
  POST /save-pattern (promotes hit pattern to library with reliability counters)
- PatternLab.tsx: 34 preset events 2015-2025 (macro/geo/credit/fx/commodities/volatility/tech),
  3-panel layout — preset selector + wizard + run history, market data table,
  AI pattern cards with hit/miss outcome display, Save to Library button
- useApi.ts: usePatternLabRuns, useRunPatternLab, useEvaluatePatternLab, useSaveLabPattern, useDeleteLabRun
- Sidebar + App.tsx: /pattern-lab route + FlaskConical nav link

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 17:55:48 +02:00
OpenSquared
a68a08d9af feat: trade mandate (budget + horizon) wired end-to-end
- database.py: add trade_budget_eur / preferred_horizon_min/max config
  defaults and include them in cycle config migrations
- auto_cycle.py: read trade params from config and inject into cycle_meta
- ai_analyzer.py: inject INVESTOR TRADE MANDATE block into scoring and
  suggestion prompts so GPT-4o penalises horizon mismatches and sizes
  within the capital cap
- Config.tsx: Trade Parameters card with budget + horizon sliders and live
  mandate summary
- TradeIdeas.tsx: horizon filter pills (< 1M / 1-3M / 3-6M / > 6M) and
  budget/horizon indicator pulled from saved config
- useApi.ts: extend useUpdateCycleConfig type with new config fields

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 17:24:38 +02:00
OpenSquared
9b98594c07 fix: 3 bugs from system logs — timedelta, scoring IndexError, lxml
- database.py: add timedelta to datetime import (used in
  get_recent_economic_surprises, was raising NameError)
- ai_analyzer.py: scoring split was searching French string
  'Retourne UNIQUEMENT ce JSON valide:' but prompt is now in English
  'Return ONLY this valid JSON:' — caused IndexError crashing every cycle
- requirements.txt: add lxml>=5.0.0 (yfinance earnings_dates dependency,
  was silently failing all 23 ticker fetches every hour)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 17:11:23 +02:00
OpenSquared
10ffc345d6 feat: Pattern Explorer — taxonomy tree + 23 historical patterns + instrument lens
- PatternExplorer.tsx: new page with two views:
    • Tree View — 6-root taxonomy (geopolitical, monetary_policy, economic,
      commodity, risk_off, market_structure) with collapsible sub-nodes;
      pattern cards appear on node selection
    • Instrument Lens — search any ticker (e.g. GLD, FXE) to see every
      pattern + scenario that references it, with matching trades highlighted
- geo_analyzer.py: PATTERN_TAXONOMY tree constant + taxonomy_path on all
  patterns; 15 new documented patterns P009-P023 (BoJ YCC, SVB crisis,
  Taiwan semis, OPEC cuts, Fed pivot, Debt ceiling, Iran nuclear, DPRK,
  VIX backwardation, ECB surprise, Extreme Fear contrarian, S. China Sea,
  European energy, CPI hot print, Flash crash)
- patterns.py: GET /api/patterns/taxonomy, GET /api/patterns/by-instrument
- database.py: taxonomy_path migration + seed_builtin_patterns updates path
- App.tsx: /patterns → PatternExplorer, /patterns/edit → PatternEditor

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 16:42:45 +02:00
OpenSquared
acc8bef29d feat: 4 remaining institutional reports — Earnings, VX curve, Central Bank RSS, Sentiment
New fetchers (no API keys required):
- earnings_fetcher.py: yfinance EPS calendar + surprise tracking for 23 geo-relevant tickers
- vx_fetcher.py: VIX term structure (^VIX/^VXV/^VXMT) + CBOE delayed futures, regime detection
- central_bank_fetcher.py: Fed + ECB RSS feeds, keyword-based hawkish/dovish classification
- sentiment_fetcher.py: CNN Fear & Greed (primary) + NAAIM + AAII (optional fallbacks)

Wiring:
- institutional_scheduler.py: all 4 now scheduled daily (≥08:00 UTC), deduplicated per day
- institutional.py /refresh: all 6 types handled with _run() helper
- ai_analyzer.py build_institutional_block(): limit 6→12, generic header text
- InstitutionalReports.tsx: 6-type color map, individual refresh buttons, expanded filters

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 14:26:19 +02:00
OpenSquared
d178615c74 feat: Phase 2 — economic event surprise tracker (FRED actuals + z-score)
- economic_events table in DB (series_id, actual, forecast_baseline, surprise_pct, surprise_zscore, direction)
- DB helpers: save_economic_event(), get_recent_economic_surprises(), get_economic_events_for_calendar()
- fred_fetcher.py: _compute_zscore_surprise() computes 12-period MA as implied consensus + z-score deviation; save_fred_releases_to_db() persists releases per cycle; build_economic_surprise_block() formats significant surprises for AI prompt
- auto_cycle.py: saves FRED releases to economic_events each cycle, appends surprise block to fred_block for injection into both suggestion and scoring prompts
- data_fetcher.py: get_economic_calendar() now merges static upcoming events with past FRED actuals from DB (Prev/Fcst/Actual/z-score fields populated)
- CalendarPage.tsx: past events show colored z-score badge ( for |z|≥1.5, bullish/bearish colors)
- EconomicEvent type: added surprise_zscore, surprise_direction, source fields

Activates automatically once fred_api_key is set in Configuration.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 14:00:35 +02:00
OpenSquared
3edbd6b0b7 feat: institutional reports — CFTC COT + EIA petroleum weekly
- New institutional_reports table (DB) with importance, signals per asset class, key points, absorption tracking
- cot_fetcher.py: CFTC Socrata API (6dca-aqww), 7 instruments (Gold/Silver/Copper/WTI/NatGas/SP500/EURUSD), net positioning + 52-week z-score
- eia_fetcher.py: EIA API v2, 4 series (crude/Cushing/gasoline/distillates), WoW surprise detection
- institutional.py router: GET /reports, GET /reports/{id}, POST /refresh, GET /stats
- institutional_scheduler.py: weekly auto-fetch (COT Saturdays, EIA Wednesday afternoons)
- ai_analyzer.py: build_institutional_block() + institutional_block param injected into AI scoring prompt
- auto_cycle.py: inject institutional block into suggestion + scoring, absorption tracking via keyword overlap after each cycle commentary
- InstitutionalReports.tsx: full page with filter bar (type/category/importance/period), cards with key point bullets, EXTREME alerts highlighted, signal badges, absorption badge, trading implications, expandable detail

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 13:45:07 +02:00
OpenSquared
dcbc9f19fc feat: translate all UI strings to English for international release
Complete French→English translation across all frontend pages and backend
services — every label, button, header, empty state, toast, and nav item
is now in English. Build verified clean (tsc + vite). No i18n library
added; direct string replacement throughout.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-22 09:06:37 +02:00
OpenSquared
952e326590 feat: pattern convergence engine — categories, signal_direction, conviction scores
Phase 1 — Catégorisation:
- database.py: ADD COLUMN category + signal_direction on custom_patterns (migration);
  save_custom_pattern persists category/signal_direction; new helpers:
  get_unclassified_patterns(), update_pattern_classification(),
  get_patterns_with_last_score()
- ai_analyzer.py: PATTERN_CATEGORIES dict (8 categories: géopolitique, macro_monétaire,
  technique, commodités_supply, risk_off, flux_saisonnier, géo_économique, crédit_stress);
  classify_patterns_batch() → GPT-4o-mini batch classification
- suggest schema: added category + signal_direction fields so new patterns are
  classified from birth
- auto_cycle.py: Step 3.1 classifies all unclassified patterns after each suggestion

Phase 2 — Convergence layer (post-scoring, no extra AI call):
- ai_analyzer.py: _compute_convergence() groups scored patterns by (underlying, signal_direction);
  conviction_bonus = min(20, +5 per additional agreeing pattern); adds conviction_score,
  conviction_bonus, convergence_count, convergence_underlying, convergence_partners to each result;
  called at end of score_patterns_with_context(), re-sorts by conviction_score
- auto_cycle.py: logs convergence summary after scoring; propagates category/signal_direction
  to scored results for display

Phase optionnelle — Convergence in suggestion prompt:
- ai_analyzer.py: suggest_patterns_from_market_context() accepts convergence_block param;
  injected into prompt so AI knows which underlyings have multi-pattern agreement
- auto_cycle.py: before suggestion, loads last-cycle scores via get_patterns_with_last_score(),
  calls _compute_convergence() to build convergence block, passes to suggester

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-21 20:22:08 +02:00
OpenSquared
319ac35a26 feat: weekend-aware scheduler with configurable cycle times
- auto_cycle.py: _scheduler_loop now distinguishes weekday (interval_hours)
  from weekend (weekend_cycle_times UTC slots or sleep until Monday);
  _parse_weekend_times() and _next_weekend_slot() helpers;
  get_status() exposes weekend_cycle_enabled + weekend_cycle_times
- cycle.py: CycleConfigRequest adds weekend_cycle_enabled + weekend_cycle_times;
  update_cycle_config validates HH:MM format and persists to config DB
- Config.tsx: weekend scheduling section with enable toggle + time picker
  (06:00/08:00/12:00/18:00/22:00/00:00 UTC presets, multi-select);
  weekendEnabled + weekendTimes state synced from cycle status

Default: enabled with 08:00 + 22:00 UTC (covers news scan + Globex open Sunday)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-21 20:00:06 +02:00
OpenSquared
d4bc4e6624 fix: JSON serialization crash on NaN floats in cycle context snapshot
- portfolio_context.py: add _safe_float() helper (converts NaN/Inf → None);
  use .squeeze().dropna() on yfinance closes before computing moves;
  guard division by checking closes.iloc[-2] != 0
- cycle.py: add _sanitize_floats() recursive sanitizer applied to the full
  snapshot before FastAPI serializes it — catches any remaining NaN from
  iv_rank, technical indicators, or other sources

Fixes 500 on GET /api/cycle/contexts/{run_id} when yfinance returns NaN
weekend data for portfolio positions.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-21 19:48:19 +02:00
OpenSquared
96327bec8f fix: weekend-aware cycle — IVGate, pandas MultiIndex, ticker aliases, day/session in AI prompt
- auto_cycle.py: detect weekend/market session, build cycle_meta with day_of_week/is_weekend/market_note;
  IVGate skips iv_rank>=99 on weekends to avoid artificial weekend option premium cascade;
  inject portfolio context (open trades + price moves + concentration) before AI scoring;
  pass portfolio_context_block + run_id to both AI scorer and suggester
- ai_analyzer.py: _build_temporal_news_block injects market session banner (WEEKEND warning,
  pre/after-market note, or open session label) so AI knows markets are closed and defers execution to Monday
- iv_engine.py: add WHEAT/EUR/USD ticker aliases; skip saving IV snapshots on weekends to protect history;
  resolve aliases before slash-format conversion in _resolve_ticker
- technical_indicators.py: fix pandas MultiIndex from yfinance>=0.2 (droplevel+squeeze);
  use period proportional to lookback instead of fixed period=1d
- database.py: asset_class ticker-based fallback (_asset_class_from_ticker); one-time backfill migration
  for all NULL asset_class rows; ai_call_logs table + save/get helpers; normalize_ticker public function

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-21 19:38:08 +02:00
OpenSquared
4ad3a9a782 feat: portfolio context injection + AI call log viewer
Portfolio context (portfolio_context.py):
- get_open_trades_with_moves(): fetches open trades + 1d/5d yfinance price moves
- get_portfolio_concentration(): counts by asset_class
- build_portfolio_context_block(): formatted prompt block with strict AI instructions
  (no double positions, flag contradictions, avoid overweight classes)

AI call logging:
- ai_call_logs table in DB (run_id, call_type, system/user prompt, response, tokens, ms)
- _chat() now accepts log_meta dict → saves call to DB non-blocking after each call
- suggest and score_batch calls pass run_id + call_type for full traceability

auto_cycle.py:
- Builds portfolio context before snapshot and both AI calls
- Context snapshot now includes portfolio_open_positions key

SystemLogs.tsx:
- "Contexte IA" tab gains sub-tabs: Contexte / Appels IA
- AiCallRow: expandable with 3 panes (user prompt / system prompt / response)
  shows model, tokens breakdown, duration, call type badge

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-21 10:36:05 +02:00
OpenSquared
5d3ff19393 fix: ticker-based asset_class fallback + backfill migration for NULL rows
- _normalize_asset_class() now accepts ticker param and infers class from
  a full ticker→class lookup table (energy/metals/agri/indices/equities/forex)
- init_db() runs one-time UPDATE to backfill all NULL asset_class rows in
  trade_entry_prices and skipped_trades using known ticker lists
- log_trade_entries and log_skipped_trade pass ticker to normalizer
- Frontend _normalizeAssetClass() gets same ticker lookup + pattern fallbacks
  for =F futures, NSE: prefixed equities, =X currency pairs
- All 3 filter calls now pass t.underlying as second argument

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-20 18:58:25 +02:00
OpenSquared
7c0ff703b0 fix: filtres Journal de Bord — direction + asset_class tous onglets
Direction (Ouvert) : t.direction n'existe pas dans trade_entry_prices → utilisait
undefined, excluait tout. Remplacé par _isBearishStr(t.strategy) comme Fermés.

Asset class (Ouvert, Fermés, Non loggés) : l'IA retournait parfois "commodities",
"currencies", "fx", "equity" au lieu des clés canoniques. Double correction :
- Frontend : _normalizeAssetClass() mappe les variantes → energy|metals|agriculture|
  indices|equities|forex dans les 3 sections filtrées
- Backend database.py : _normalize_asset_class() appliqué à l'INSERT dans
  trade_entry_prices et skipped_trades (nouveaux trades normalisés au stockage)
- Prompt ai_analyzer.py : suggested_trades[].asset_class contraint à l'enum explicite

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-20 18:44:14 +02:00
OpenSquared
a21699805b feat: Phase 4+5 — price discovery status + replay historique
Phase 4 — Price Discovery Status (la pièce maîtresse) :
- price_discovery.py (nouveau) : capture_price_snapshots() sauve les prix des tickers
  liés à chaque news scorée (energy→BZ=F/NG=F, metals→GC=F/HG=F, indices→^GSPC/IWM)
- compute_absorptions() mesure combien du mouvement attendu s'est déjà produit
  (status: not_yet_priced <30% / partially_priced 30-80% / fully_priced >80%)
- build_price_discovery_block() → bloc prompt avec opportunités classées
- database.py : table news_price_snapshots + save/get/purge fonctions
- auto_cycle.py : capture après ai_score_news_batch, compute avant suggestions,
  block injecté dans suggestion + scoring prompts + context snapshot
- ai_analyzer.py : param price_discovery_block dans suggest + score

Phase 5 — Replay historique :
- cycle.py : POST /api/cycle/contexts/{run_id}/replay — recharge le snapshot historique
  et relance suggest_patterns_from_market_context avec le contexte original
- useApi.ts : hook useReplayCycle
- SystemLogs.tsx : bouton "Rejouer ce cycle" dans onglet Contexte IA avec champ
  notes, résultats inline (liste des patterns générés), section price_discovery
  ouverte par défaut en rouge

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-20 16:58:57 +02:00
OpenSquared
9c0ebbd138 feat: Phase 2 + context log — FRED releases, cycle context snapshot, onglet Contexte IA
Phase 2 — Données macro FRED :
- fred_fetcher.py (nouveau) : 7 séries FRED (CPI, NFP, UNRATE, FEDFUNDS, GDP, ICSA,
  spread 10Y-2Y) avec détection direction bullish/bearish et block prompt formaté
- ai_analyzer.py : param fred_block dans suggest + score, injecté dans les deux prompts
- auto_cycle.py : fetch FRED non-bloquant avant la suggestion

Context log — Snapshot du contexte complet :
- database.py : table cycle_context_snapshots + save/get/list fonctions
- auto_cycle.py : sauvegarde le snapshot (meta, news partitionnées, FRED, tech, IV, quotes)
- cycle.py : GET /api/cycle/contexts + GET /api/cycle/contexts/{run_id}
- useApi.ts : hooks useCycleContextSnapshots + useCycleContextSnapshot
- SystemLogs.tsx : onglet "Contexte IA" avec liste de cycles et visualiseur JSON
  par section (cycle_meta, macro, news, FRED, tech) avec accordéon

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-20 16:51:02 +02:00
OpenSquared
50ba75e468 feat: Phase 3 — indicateurs techniques calibrés par horizon option
- technical_indicators.py (nouveau) : compute_indicators() calcule RSI, MA fast/slow,
  Bollinger Bands, ATR — périodes calibrées automatiquement selon horizon_days
- config.py : endpoints GET/PUT /config/tech-indicators (activé, liste, auto-calibration)
- useApi.ts : useTechIndicatorsConfig + useSaveTechIndicatorsConfig hooks
- Config.tsx : carte "Indicateurs techniques" dans Options—Paramètres avec toggles
- auto_cycle.py : compute top-5 tickers à chaque cycle si tech_indicators_enabled=true
- ai_analyzer.py : tech_indicators_block injecté dans suggestion + scoring prompts

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-20 16:41:42 +02:00
OpenSquared
d5e31bc897 feat: Phase 1 — delta temporel + decay news + cycle_meta dans prompts IA
- database.py: get_last_completed_cycle_ts() pour mesurer le delta entre cycles
- auto_cycle.py: calcul delta_minutes + cycle_meta dict transmis aux fonctions IA
- ai_analyzer.py: apply_news_decay() (halflife par catégorie), partition_news_by_age()
  (3 buckets: inter_cycle / recent_24h / older), _build_temporal_news_block() pour
  le prompt suggestion; cycle_meta injecté aussi dans score_patterns_with_context()

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-06-20 16:36:54 +02:00